$50 NLHE Full Ring: TP+FD Flop bet gets check/raised 200bb deep

$50 NL HE Full Ring: TP+FD Flop bet gets check/raised 200bb deep

Villain is 39/17/2.5 over a small 32 hands sample. He's limp called me once before and folded to my flop cbet.

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HAND #1
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Full Tilt, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

UTG+1: $8.75 (17.5 bb)
UTG+2: $58.90 (117.8 bb)
MP1: $49.05 (98.1 bb)
MP2: $21.15 (42.3 bb)
MP3: $103.10 (206.2 bb)
CO: $102.85 (205.7 bb)
Hero (BTN): $135.15 (270.3 bb)
SB: $50 (100 bb)
BB: $10 (20 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with 9 Q
3 folds, MP2 calls $0.50, MP3 folds, CO calls $0.50, Hero raises to $3, 3 folds, CO calls $2.50

Flop: ($7.25) 5 9 3 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $5, CO raises to $15, Hero ???

I'm flatting it here. For some reason, I'm thinking he has trips or two pair. You are trying to see the flush card so you can felt him.

timiroberts said:

I'm flatting it here. For some reason, I'm thinking he has trips or two pair. You are trying to see the flush card so you can felt him.

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I'm not sure about the two pair...

I'm confused on this one so I want to respond in hopes that other members take a look, disagree with me, or shine some of their own perspective on this hand. I think I would settle for flatting this and evaluating the situation again on the turn.

With a semi-bluff coming over the top I'm a little torn. If we push over and put him at the top of his range with a set, he'd need to fold somewhere >30% for it to be profitable, but we may be folding out hands that we beat and could extract value from on later streets. Also calling and actually hitting our flush may make him shut down completely.

I guess this is where pokerstove comes in hand to show the possible hands for opponent (even though it is a small sample size).

Cliff notes: I vote for a call.

Likminutz said:

Cliff notes: I vote for a call.

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i only play 25nl so can't even technically relate to these stakes but i would probably just push here.
not a fan of playing a turn here with little info. on villain and not too strong of a read on his hand. and knowing that a club on the board kills all action, even sometimes if he has a set he'll slow right down.
and if we improve to 2/pair or trip 9s on the turn we'll end up stacking off and still be behind the set. so the only way flatting is best is if he has 2 lower clubs and we get paid off when flush hits.
when in doubt, RAISE

spranger said:

i only play 25nl so can't even technically relate to these stakes but i would probably just push here.
not a fan of playing a turn here with little info. on villain and not too strong of a read on his hand. and knowing that a club on the board kills all action, even sometimes if he has a set he'll slow right down.
and if we improve to 2/pair or trip 9s on the turn we'll end up stacking off and still be behind the set. so the only way flatting is best is if he has 2 lower clubs and we get paid off when flush hits.
when in doubt, RAISE

Click to expand...

FWIW, if we're 100bb deep I push this and don't even think about it. Just not sure how the deep stacks should be effecting my play.

The only merit in shoving is to value-town worse 9's/draws & prevent his weak draws (like 78o or AK) from catching up. But sometimes these weak draws hit when our flush hits, so thats not a giant concern. I also don't think this villain is aggressive enough to bluff weak draws.

There may be a case for charging worse nines/draws given his stats, but even fish can fold 9T these days to a flop 3-bet. Being like 75bb's deep it might be a jam, but 100+ and I think its a clear call.