Originally Posted by Epik High
why are you bet/calling? what do you think villians raising range is on turn?
His legit value raising range on the turn has gotta be crazy narrow, and I just get suspicious whenever value ranges are crazy narrow. How many hands does an 18/14 have that can make a flush when he raises in EP?
For value, he's raising his flushes (AK, AJ, KJ maybe?), boats & quads (TT, QQ, 66?), and maybe aces with the ace of spades. That's a pretty damn narrow range.
I'm more focused on the "bet" part of the "bet/fold", since there's a ton of worse pairs in his range (and 1-card flush draws) that we want value from.
As far as 3-betting preflop, meht, balance is stupid. If you think he's a good enough reg to fold QQ-TT and AK to a 3-bet, then fine, but I'm not sure I'd give him that much credit if your only read is "18/14 reg". I know why you flatted, I'm just saying people flat more than they should, giving regs credit for folding more hands than you think, especially at 50NL.