$50 NLHE Full Ring: Top set in multiway pot with ugly turn

No Brainer

No Brainer

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SB is 11/8/4.5 over ~450 hands 78% fold to c bet (7/9)
MP1 is 12/7/2.3 weak tight reg over ~2k hands 49% fold to c bet


Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($50)
BB ($53.05)
Hero ($60.75)
UTG+1 ($74.85)
UTG+2 ($81.80)
MP1 ($55.70)
MP2 ($74.10)
CO ($50)
BTN ($36.05)

Dealt to Hero Q Q

Hero raises to $1.50, fold, fold, MP1 calls $1.50, MP2 calls $1.50, CO calls $1.50, fold, SB calls $1.25, fold

FLOP ($8) 6 Q 5

SB checks, Hero bets $4.50, MP1 calls $4.50, MP2 folds, CO folds, SB calls $4.50

TURN ($21.50) 6 Q 5 7

SB bets $15, Hero ??
 
forsakenone

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your bet on the flop is way too small, especially with so many people in the pot and with 2 draws out there, should have bet close to pot, anyways now I think you must call and see a river.
 
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ComplexPlaya

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+1. Bet at least $8 there, maybe $10 even. Now you're pretty much full house and quad mining (sounds so lol) but you don't have the odds to call. I guess it's a sick fold I probably wouldn't be able to do on the table either.

BTW, SB's range is a lot wider than his stats since he closed action 5-way, 98o is easily in his range here also a lot of suited cards
 
mrmonkey

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I'm also curious why you bet so small on that flop. Was there a specific reason for doing so against these villains?

I think as played you have to find a fold on this turn. You are ahead of smaller sets and not much else, and there is one more caller to act behind you.
 
Sysvr4

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That's the worst card in the deck, bar none. Still, I can't find a fold here (yet). Between possibly filling up and percentage of the time you'll get shown two pair, I'm at least calling the turn and reevaluating on the river.
 
Z

Zybomb

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We have enough implied odds combined w pot odds to call here. We're getting almost 2.5:1 with a hand we are a little than 3:1 to improve with. I think we'll overcome the difference here with implied odds enough to make calling +EV here (particularly with position)

And sure we should of bet bigger on the flop... but $10 into an 8? Like are we trying to not get value with THE NUTS just bc there are draws out there? Are we Cbetting over the pot on boards like these? Just standard 6.50 or so is fine, so we don't polarize our range and so that our meta image is fine when we are cbetting these type of boards
 
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ComplexPlaya

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We have enough implied odds combined w pot odds to call here. We're getting almost 2.5:1 with a hand we are a little than 3:1 to improve with. I think we'll overcome the difference here with implied odds enough to make calling +EV here (particularly with position)

And sure we should of bet bigger on the flop... but $10 into an 8? Like are we trying to not get value with THE NUTS just bc there are draws out there? Are we Cbetting over the pot on boards like these? Just standard 6.50 or so is fine, so we don't polarize our range and so that our meta image is fine when we are cbetting these type of boards

What? There are 10 outs to improve to a FH, that's 44/10 = 4.4:1 hand equity. So you need to make $66 when calling a $15 bet just to break even.
The pot is $36.50 and villain has 29 behind, so the MAX you can win after calling $15 is $65.50. It's simply not getting there.

It's probably close and not an awful fold because MP1 may call as well (he could shove too, which sucks for us), but also being a family pot some outs are probably gone, since people love to play connectors, suited or not

I had to laugh at the bolded part. Made my day. Sorry but what in god's name are you talking about? Are you just pulling stuff out of some poker book / article without thinking about it? Meta game at 50nl 6 max is so stupid to do in itself, but then you talk about not polarizing.

What is there to polarize? Are you ever bluffing in a 5-way pot when the board comes with flush and straight draws? Anyone who ever thinks what your range is like knows you're never bluffing there so might as well bet it big. You think they'll make a note "Hero overbet the pot on a very wet board 5-way with the nuts" so next time this situation comes up in about 3 months time he'll know if you bet 1/2 the pot you have air.

[ ] makes sense
 
Z

Zybomb

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[ ] getting max value

[ ] does not polarize our range

[ ] is not completely exploitable

You're right, I'd probably just shove the flop . May as well
 
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ComplexPlaya

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[ ] getting max value

[ ] does not polarize our range

[ ] is not completely exploitable

You're right, I'd probably just shove the flop . May as well

rofl. let me know how polarizing your range in 5-way pots is working for ya
 
Z

Zybomb

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Pot is 36.5. It cost us $15. We have 2.4:1 on a call

We are not a 4.4:1 dog, we will make our hand 1 in 4.4 times (thus we are slightly over a 3:1 dog as i said) There's a big difference

Since apparently you aren't understanding this

Time 1: We lose $15 and fold to a shove (-15)
Time 2: " " (-30)
Time 3: " " (-45)
Time 4: We hit. We now need to extract $45 of value back. the pot already 36.5, so we need an additional 8.50 to break even, which we will

this is assuming we make our hand 1 in 4 not 1 in 4.4 (for simplicity sake). If we say we lose another $6 dollars (the .4) it's now another 14.50 we need to make back to get even ($51 dollars of loses in calling the $15). The time that we hit doesn't factor into the $15 since we are winning that bet back. Villains stack is $29 and the pot is now $51.5. We should stack villain in position enough to make this +EV, we need to make 14.5 to break even

Either that or I apparently don't understand the maths
 
cjatud2012

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We hit a full house or better ~22% of the time, which is ~3.6:1 of the time (there are 10 cards that give us a full house of better, and 36 that don't, which leads us to 3.6:1. If you assume he doesn't have 5x of spades you might actually be able to narrow that to 10 against 34, for 3.4:1). So that means we need to win $54 on average for this to be +EV. There's $36.50 already in the pot so we need to win another $17.50 from villain. He's got ~$30 left behind after he bets, so it seems the implied odds are there should we call.
 
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ComplexPlaya

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Yeah my math was off. But really trying to balance your range in a 5-way pot is very very silly, even if you forget about the stakes you're trying to balance at, so betting way more on the flop still stands
 
cjatud2012

cjatud2012

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You really don't need to bet a ton on the flop. His most likely draw has 9 outs, so it completes on the turn ~20% of the time, so your bet needs to offer him worse than 4:1. So our bet on the flop charges him for that just fine. If he has 87 or 74 he has 8 outs, and he gets charged for that too. The worst case is he has 87s or 74s, and he has 15 outs to complete on the turn, so that completes 32% of the time, so against those hands a pot sized bet would be needed to charge him, but that's such a small portion of his range - and you can probably discount 74 almost entirely. Besides, if he has a pair smaller than ours, he's nearly drawing dead, or if has AA/KK he has 2 outs. So that sort of cancels the monster draws, and therefore betting against the ~9 outs seems perfectly reasonable imo.

The main reason I'd maybe bet closer to pot size would be if I thought he'd call a larger bet (maybe that's obvious, if so then I apologize for making such simple statement). Otherwise the only thing a larger bet is doing is helping him make the correct fold.
 
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ComplexPlaya

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You really don't need to bet a ton on the flop. His most likely draw has 9 outs, so it completes on the turn ~20% of the time, so your bet needs to offer him worse than 4:1. So our bet on the flop charges him for that just fine. If he has 87 or 74 he has 8 outs, and he gets charged for that too. The worst case is he has 87s or 74s, and he has 15 outs to complete on the turn, so that completes 32% of the time, so against those hands a pot sized bet would be needed to charge him, but that's such a small portion of his range - and you can probably discount 74 almost entirely. Besides, if he has a pair smaller than ours, he's nearly drawing dead, or if has AA/KK he has 2 outs. So that sort of cancels the monster draws, and therefore betting against the ~9 outs seems perfectly reasonable imo.

The main reason I'd maybe bet closer to pot size would be if I thought he'd call a larger bet (maybe that's obvious, if so then I apologize for making such simple statement). Otherwise the only thing a larger bet is doing is helping him make the correct fold.

Dude, that's not a good attitude for poker. You don't want to just "charge them" you want to make the most you can. And in a 5-way pot, people don't fold good draws on the flop, nits or not (and they shouldn't either)

Can you imagine how much the pot is bloated if there are 2 callers when you bet pot? The pot is 32 now instead of $21.50 on the turn and way easier to get stacks in for full value. Regardless you win more $$$
 
bgomez89

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Yeah if someone is willing to pay 200 dollars to eat a slice of pizza why should we only charge them 5 dollars?
 
cjatud2012

cjatud2012

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Well yes, I agree with that, if villain wants to make a bigger mistake then more power to him :p But you always need to be thinking about what odds you're offering your opponent, and make sure that what you're forcing him to make a mistake if he wants to play. So if you think he's capable of making a huge mistake, then give him the opportunity to make that mistake, don't be rude and deny him that chance :D
 
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ComplexPlaya

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Well yes, I agree with that, if villain wants to make a bigger mistake then more power to him :p But you always need to be thinking about what odds you're offering your opponent, and make sure that what you're forcing him to make a mistake if he wants to play. So if you think he's capable of making a huge mistake, then give him the opportunity to make that mistake, don't be rude and deny him that chance :D

It's not really a mistake in a 5-way pot, a draw will be getting the implied odds for a lot of hands, especially if there is a caller before. Don't forget you don't always have top set when betting here, what do you do with AQ for instance?
 
CheckraiseLife

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If I was playing this my line might have been on
the flop like 6.50 - 7.00

on the turn I'd probably check call a raise up to 12 since I think we still could be ahead here, although most the time we're probably getting value pwned but theres alot of implied odds for the river to also pair giving us boat as weak as it sounds if the river brings us nothing I probably check fold unless the bet is reallll small however if we hit the nizzles Fullhouse I probably lead out here there is an argument for cehckraising but I think the times he migh make a nitty check back makes it -ev

my 2 cents and my first post :)
 
ljove

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I don't understand your weak flop play.You got top set with flush draw on the board and you are afraid to bet because they will fold if you bet strong.
Now you had flush board on turn and don't know what to do.
Check-call to hit full house off course if guy with flush play soft like you to get your money.
 
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badaboombaa

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flop size is fine, maybe a bit more but most of the time we won't have a set here and we don't want to give us a terrible price and tell them "I'M NEVER BLUFFING MKAY?". Turn you're almost never ahead but call and basically boat mine only have to get paid small percentage of the time for it to be a call.
 
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ComplexPlaya

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flop size is fine, maybe a bit more but most of the time we won't have a set here and we don't want to give us a terrible price and tell them "I'M NEVER BLUFFING MKAY?". Turn you're almost never ahead but call and basically boat mine only have to get paid small percentage of the time for it to be a call.

Here we go again. How often do you bluff in 5-way pots? How well is that working out? Do you think your opponents include bluffs in your range when you cbet a 5-way wet board?
 
Z

Zybomb

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I think a point being missed here is that we don't (shouldn't at least) want our opponents to fold draws. We want them to incorrectly call so our EV is +.

Even looking at the hand in a microscope assuming no meta game effects (maybe reasonable at these stakes and situation maybe not whatever) what's the max we can charge and get draws to pay?

Sure if someone will buy a slice of pizza for $10 why would we sell it for $2, but why $10 though? Why not $15? Or all in? What's the bet that we expect opponents to still call with and not fold out hands that they may call with that are drawing basically dead like Qx or PPs < QQ (which is a part of villains range that we don't want to lose obv)

And if we're never bluffing in 5 way wet boards so villains will never call with inferior made hands and only with draws we should just bomb flop and shove blank turns with ATC then since we'll never be called? This obviously isn't accurate. Standard 75%-80% pot bet like we would on a wet boards with TPTK, Sets, Draws, and occassional air with outs (AK, mid pairs etc) and we will get looked up by some PPs Qx and draws also. We don't want to take the pot down right here, we have the nuts, we want to build the pot and charge draws an incorrect price, not fold them out. If this were a tournament, it'd be a different story since stack preservation over takes maximizing value since we can't reload, and in that case we'd want to take down the pot right then against draws, but in a cash game we (should) want the draws to (incorrectly) call every time since we're making money when they do so.

If we could bet 2x pot and still get called by everything, by all means we should bet 2x pot. Or 3x pot. Or all in... I just don't think this is the case though
 
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ComplexPlaya

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I think a point being missed here is that we don't (shouldn't at least) want our opponents to fold draws. We want them to incorrectly call so our EV is +.

Even looking at the hand in a microscope assuming no meta game effects (maybe reasonable at these stakes and situation maybe not whatever) what's the max we can charge and get draws to pay?

Sure if someone will buy a slice of pizza for $10 why would we sell it for $2, but why $10 though? Why not $15? Or all in? What's the bet that we expect opponents to still call with and not fold out hands that they may call with that are drawing basically dead like Qx or PPs < QQ (which is a part of villains range that we don't want to lose obv)

And if we're never bluffing in 5 way wet boards so villains will never call with inferior made hands and only with draws we should just bomb flop and shove blank turns with ATC then since we'll never be called? This obviously isn't accurate. Standard 75%-80% pot bet like we would on a wet boards with TPTK, Sets, Draws, and occassional air with outs (AK, mid pairs etc) and we will get looked up by some PPs Qx and draws also. We don't want to take the pot down right here, we have the nuts, we want to build the pot and charge draws an incorrect price, not fold them out. If this were a tournament, it'd be a different story since stack preservation over takes maximizing value since we can't reload, and in that case we'd want to take down the pot right then against draws, but in a cash game we (should) want the draws to (incorrectly) call every time since we're making money when they do so.

If we could bet 2x pot and still get called by everything, by all means we should bet 2x pot. Or 3x pot. Or all in... I just don't think this is the case though

I am glad you are starting to see my point, but you are wrong in some assumptions.

Firstly, never have I said I would bet large to get draws to fold. Of course not. I think an $8 bet gets called by almost everything.

Qx is a very small part of their range since 3 queens are out, underpairs are a small part of the range due to the fact of being only 6 combos each, and plus I doubt they fold most of the time from most 50nl players here, remember it's 5-ways.

A very big thing you're forgetting also is a larger bet needs to be called less often to be MORE profitable, for instance a $9 bet would have to be called 50% as often to yield the same profit as a $4.50 bet, and if it gets called say 75% of the time you just made 50% more money on one street!

Good draws never fold to an $8-$9 bet.
 
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badaboombaa

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Here we go again. How often do you bluff in 5-way pots? How well is that working out? Do you think your opponents include bluffs in your range when you cbet a 5-way wet board?

Not with no equity but I actually do this a decent amount with gutters/backdoor NFD/etc. just because so many people are folding pretty strong hands to 3 barrels and basically need 2p+ to show down and even bottom 2 can sometimes fold rivers. Obviously I'm not just randomly barreling and maybe I should do a filter but I definitely do have a bluff range in 5-way boards. I know that for a fact.
 
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