$50 NLHE Full Ring: Top 2P on wet flop OOP vs a good reg

pokerstars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed)

Button ($79.38)
SB ($58.76)
Hero (BB) ($61.26)
UTG ($64.54)
UTG+1 ($72.89)
MP1 ($52.50)
MP2 ($111.04)
MP3 ($50.25)
CO ($64.15)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 10 , J
4 folds, MP3 raises to $1.50, 3 folds, Hero calls $1

Flop: ($3.25) 9 , 10 , J (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $2.25, Hero raises to $6.05, MP3 raises to $17.45, Hero calls $11.40

Turn: ($38.15) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $14.50, Hero raises to $42.31 (All-In), MP3 calls $16.80 (All-In)

River: ($100.75) A (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $100.75 | Rake: $2.50

Results below:
I can't decide if this hand is spew or bad beat

He opens around 15% in MP, is a good player.

In this spot I can XR flop with nut FD, combo draws, sets, straights, OESD/FD hands (sometimes), 2P.

He doesn't know my exact XR range but probably knows I am not a complete blufftard.

1) Is XR flop even a correct play? If not, what is a good line here?

After his reraise, if I call I basically commit myself and he is also pretty much commited but if I shove he might fold some of the stuff I actually beat.

I thought he might reraise flop with nut FDs, AA (overpair + gutshot), KK (overpar + OESD), straights, sets, maybe even JT/T9... not really sure.

I think this is a bad beat as all the money is likely to go in on the turn if not the flop already as it happened. Just cannot fold top two pair in such situations. On the turn the board is pretty wet with two flush draws . So i wouldn't be worrying too much about the way you played this hand really. Just a cooler situation to be in.

Sure except I lose a shitload of money in these scenarios. So either I am a spewtard or epically unlucky.

LD1977 said:

Sure except I lose a shitload of money in these scenarios. So either I am a spewtard or epically unlucky.

Click to expand...

What do you think of 3betting in such scenarios pre flop in position as you are playing deep stacked ?? Would you consider doing it more often one to isolate your opponent and you'll have the opportunity to play in position post flop if opponent calls. But there is a good chance you will take down some of these pots pre flop itself as opponents will fold such marginal hands to a three bet. Just a suggestion since you are losing a lot in such scenarios.

I am OOP in the BB and 3betting a MP open from a solid player is not the best idea I think... he doesn't fold enough to either a 3bet or a flop cbet to make it exploitable.

By scenarios I meant the type of hand where it is easy to shrug and say it is a cooler but after losing a huge number of buyins I have to try and figure out if those are really coolers or what. IP/OOP and 3bet or not is not the core issue unless calling JTs in BB is somehow a leak (which is doubtful).

I think with your huge number of buyins, youre unconsciously tilting and became so aggressive.

Happens to me everytime.

Have you considered folding preflop in this kind of spots? You said that it could be a leak. IMO it is. JT OOP is a 3-bet or fold OOP, IMO. 3-bet against CO or Button, SB if they steal too much. Against earlier positions you are likely to be close to his range but OOP so obvious -EV.

PS. Actually I am wrong. You are far behind his range. Him having position and decent player I think you are unlikely to overplay him OOP.

MP2 61.82% 60.49% 1.32% 22+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+
BB 38.18% 36.86% 1.32% JTs

first, 3bet or fold pre cant call obv. second when he raises u back on the flop u have the worst ever valueraising hand on this board. raise is ok but then u have to fold. weird but true. never flat vs strong ranges especially oop. gl

Maybe you shall consider folding against the flop 3bet?

I think the best case on the flop is that you're splitting. I don't think a ton of regs will be re-raising, even with combo draws in position on this flop. So I think in general you're pretty far behind. That's the first thing I thought when I looked at the flop action. It gets a little complicated because I think you should raise a little more on the flop if that's your plan, but regardless, I'd be ok with folding this flop OOP. If I wasn't, and I thought my hand was good, then I'd be either shoving the flop or calling and bet/calling most blank turns.

So you think XR/F flop is best? Then XR itself is a mistake or nor?

when i dont want to xr when horrible cards can come up or create a reverse implied odds situation i just lead or just play passive sometimes. and the raise is not that bad but if your opponent is not a fish its not a pure value raise.

LD1977 said:

So you think XR/F flop is best? Then XR itself is a mistake or nor?

Click to expand...

Quite agree! XR is fine, but not enough to move allin here.

lol 3bet JTs preflop? You guys don't even know the hand strength, JTs is too strong to turn into a bluff. Postflop just check call, I can't understand check raising a board that will ruin your hand in more than 50% of the turns/rivers.

btc87 said:

lol 3bet JTs preflop? You guys don't even know the hand strength, JTs is too strong to turn into a bluff. Postflop just check call, I can't understand check raising a board that will ruin your hand in more than 50% of the turns/rivers.

Click to expand...

Really ? And tell me how the hell will you get value when you actually hit if you just call and play it OOP? Like LD did? The real purpose in good poker is to actually hide your hand strength preflop and get away when it is not an +EV spot. Or in this example JTs is way behind villain's range .
I saw Verneer saying in one of his videos "People just do not put themselves in enough good situations". Simply folding here preflop if unsure about how to play the hand would have saved him one buy-in. Of course balancing his range is a must but with JTs I would 3-bet when i am OOP against one opponent only.

btc87 said:

lol 3bet JTs preflop? You guys don't even know the hand strength, JTs is too strong to turn into a bluff. Postflop just check call, I can't understand check raising a board that will ruin your hand in more than 50% of the turns/rivers.

Click to expand...

Check call OOP with top 2pairs? Really?

Its clearly a wet board.You should consider a fold after the large amount of 3bet.

It seems we have a lot of different opinions definitely not easy then...

- I didn't like the 3bet since I knew he won't fold enough either pre or post to make it automatically profitable unless I actually hit the board hard.
- Getting value is tricky but JTs seemed way too strong to fold (it has decent equity)... this is an argument for 3betting it I guess.
- XR flop seemed good at the time since XC will hate a lot of turn cards... but I guess I should have realized that he has too strong a range here to stack off when he reraises.

3bet pre. I don't like your raise size otf either, make it bigger.

Dunno how you didn't gii otf if you're not folding to his re raise.

JTs is in the top 6% range, learn the preflop hand strength guys lol. He lost a stack just because he didn't play it well postflop, not that his hand was weak. It was bad to build a big pot on that flop and he got punished.

I think you are not understanding what the equity of a hand against a range is and also you are not understanding how important position is.
I advise you to check out Pokerstove or Equilab.

For example.
I am using a 20% range of hands against JTs
Board:

EquityWinTie
MP2 59.48% 57.11% 2.38% 22+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, ATo+, KJo+, QJo, JTo
MP3 40.52% 38.14% 2.38% JTs
I could make the range that beat JTs preflop even bigger and still beat JTs.
If i would put there only his percived range after his reraise i think he is crushed a lot worse than that.
I do not know if JTs is in the 6% top hans , but i know there are a lot more than 250 combos that beat JTs preflop from the total of 1326 handspossible.

when there is so many replies in a post, i don't like to give my opinion after i've read them, but in this case, your saying your range has sets? correct you should be 3b all those hands you would have a set with, in fact i would probly fold 72% here , 3b 28 %.

this board is insanely wet , even with KQ id 3b for sure, so villain can put you on a lot of bluffs, maybe a oesd with the dumb end of a draw.

not a bad beat vs a competent.

so what % does your hand need to have against his range so you can play it? 60, 70? Give me that range pls, {JJ+,AK}? lol
There is math behind the defend ranges, and it says that in this spot you should defend about the top 17% of hands.

Defending isn't necessarily calling. 3-beting is still defending.

of course, but 3betting the mid part of your defend range is a huge mistake.