$50 NLHE Full Ring: struggling with whether to bet the river here

Figaroo2

Figaroo2

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Pacific, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players

SB: $40.47 (80.9 bb)
BB: $42.43 (84.9 bb)
Hero (UTG+2): $56.17 (112.3 bb)
MP1: $88.15 (176.3 bb)
MP2: $104.31 (208.6 bb)
MP3: $50 (100 bb)
CO: $59.71 (119.4 bb)
BTN: $108.26 (216.5 bb)VPIP: 13, PFR: 9, 3B: 3, AF: 1.4, Hands: 2292

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with A
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Q
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Hero raises to $1.50, 4 folds, BTN calls $1.50, SB folds, BB calls $1

Flop: ($4.75) 9
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7
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5
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(3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.37, BTN calls $2.37, BB folds

Turn: ($9.49) K
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(2 players)
Hero bets $5.24, BTN calls $5.24

River: ($19.97) A
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(2 players)
Hero?
Its like bet and fold if raised or check call is really close here for me. Having trouble seeing what he would just call with that we beat now both the K and A are there.
 
Jillychemung

Jillychemung

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Any 'reads' against villain?
For a check-call, how much would you call?
I'd take the amount I'd check-call for and halve it and bet that here, fold to a raise. But a lot would depend on villain reads.
 
Figaroo2

Figaroo2

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No notes on the side but from vpip13/pfr 9 with low aggression, a sraightforward tight looking nit.
 
mvrkaus

mvrkaus

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Sounds like he's looking for a straight/flush draw if any really. If he had a set, raising the river would've been a likely move. I would usually check call since the pot's big as is, i never usually overplay single pairs.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Against a tight nit, just bet the river. He'll have enough Kx, TT type hands to find a call. You should have plenty behind to bet/fold.

Against a laggier player who has more broken draws like JT, you can check to induce a bluff from his hands with no showdown value.
 
Figaroo2

Figaroo2

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hand result

Unusual holding for a guy with his stats! I didn't bet the river but he's folding anyway so I got my value on the turn.
 

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