$50 NLHE Full Ring: Setmining in 3bet pot - do we have the odds to make it +EV?

M

megl

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I played like 50 hands with this villain before this one, I see him as a solid TAG who does not pull too many fancy plays. So when he 3bet me preflop, I put him on like QQ+ and maybe a light AK. After a quick glance at his stacksize I just called for set value, thinking he would pay me off with his overpair if the flop comes dry with a T, so I have implied odds to call here.

So this time I got lucky and won a nice pot, but afterwards I wonder if this was a +EV play overall (calling preflop planning to fold on the flop unless I hit my set).

I mean, I'm like 1:7,5 to hit my set on the flop, implied odds calling his 3bet is like 1:10 (calling $5 while he has almost $50 behind). So If I can get all-in after the flop 3 out of 4 times when I hit my set, my call is good, right?

Another thing, is it safe to assume that I can get all-in 3 out of 4 times here when a TAG villain holds an overpair?

***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (IPoker)
$50.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em (real money)
Seat 2 is the button
Seat 1: Hero ( $70.27 USD )
Seat 2: Player2 ( $30.00 USD )
Seat 3: Player3 ( $53.00 USD )
Seat 4: Player4 ( $50.00 USD )
Seat 5: Player5 ( $48.84 USD )
Seat 6: Player6 ( $53.87 USD )
Seat 7: Player7 ( $8.90 USD )
Seat 8: Player8 ( $28.42 USD )
Seat 9: Player9 ( $50.00 USD )
Seat 10: Player10 ( $86.56 USD )
Player3 posts small blind [$0.25 USD].
Player4 posts big blind [$0.50 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ T[h] T[c] ]
Player5 folds
Player6 calls [$0.50 USD]
Player7 folds
Player8 folds
Player9 folds
Player10 folds
Hero raises [$2.00 USD]
Player2 folds
Player3 raises [$6.75 USD]
Player4 folds
Player6 folds
Hero calls [$5.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ T, 9[c], 9[d] ]
Player3 bets [$11.25 USD]
Hero raises [$25.00 USD]
Player3 raises [$34.75 USD]
Hero calls [$21.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ A[d] ]
** Dealing River ** [ 5[h] ]
Hero wins $104.00 USD from main pot
Player3 shows [K[h], K[d] ]
 
KardKlub

KardKlub

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Because you have 140 bb and so does he I'd say it was an okay situation to set mine but you do need to get paid off and in this case you were correct.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Villain only has 106bb not 140. In general you want effective stacks to be 150bb+ before you start thinking of setmining in 3bet pots.
 
C

ComplexPlaya

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The problem is AK is 16 combos, QQ+ totals 18 combos. Also sometimes he will be able to fold overpairs when you hit your set. Other times he will have QQ on an KT5 board, or KK on AT9. I think 200bb deep is safe to say set mining in 3-bet pots is +EV
 
xdeucesx

xdeucesx

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honestly, calling a 3 bet IP w/1010, I think you have more options there than just set mining, but agree with the others above me, 200bb atleast to set-mine profitably
 
M

megl

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ok it was nice flop,you had luck;)

Yep I know... that's exactly why I need some second opinions on my play :)

Thanks for the responses, the general opinion seems to be that I was a little bit frisky here given the size of the stacks in play, I will take note of that for future spots like this!
 
KardKlub

KardKlub

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Villain only has 106bb not 140. In general you want effective stacks to be 150bb+ before you start thinking of setmining in 3bet pots.

Top of the class. Gold star. Don't know how I got that mixed up with player 8. Then answer would be no.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Top of the class. Gold star. Don't know how I got that mixed up with player 8. Then answer would be no.
Lol do you have trouble reading the board as well? It was player10 who was the other big stack. :)
 
vanquish

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The problem is AK is 16 combos, QQ+ totals 18 combos. Also sometimes he will be able to fold overpairs when you hit your set. Other times he will have QQ on an KT5 board, or KK on AT9. I think 200bb deep is safe to say set mining in 3-bet pots is +EV

this is pretty spot on
 
KardKlub

KardKlub

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Lol do you have trouble reading the board as well? It was player10 who was the other big stack. :)


Yeah if you look deep enough into it that was the joke from me too.


Good old English humour.
 
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