$50 NLHE Full Ring: QQ vs many opponents facing scary turn card

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TimmyOtool

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$50 NL HE Full Ring: QQ vs many opponents facing scary turn card

Stats on first villian is 30/0/1 and the second villian is 25/9/2.

I'm playing 21/18/4 at this table. Not sure if this is a good spot to bet, i'm losing value against lots of draws and weak 1 pair hands if I check through. Is it ridiculous if I check here? Or is it better to bet/call off on the turn?

Stacks:
UTG with $51.10
UTG+1 with $8.25
MP1 with $35.60
MP2 with $50.00
MP3 with $55.30
CO with $51.10
BTN with $21.10
SB with $24.70
BB with $102.75



hand.pl

Blinds: $0.00/$0.00
Site: full tilt poker
Dealt to MP3:Q♦ Q♥
Sklansky group 1
Preflop:
UTG calls [$0.50]
UTG+1 calls [$0.50]
MP1 calls [$0.50]
1 players fold.
Hero raises to $3.25
4 players fold.
UTG calls [$2.75]
1 players fold.
MP1 calls [$2.75]
Total folds this street: 6
Potsize: $11
Flop:
8♠ 9♦ 6♠
UTG checks
MP1 checks
Hero bets [$7.50]
UTG calls [$7.50]
MP1 calls [$7.50]
Potsize: $33.5
Turn:
9♣
UTG checks
MP1 checks
Hero ??????




 
Deco

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Good post. Very tricky hand you've got there its a shame it aint been answered yet.

To start off I'd make the flop bet a little bigger because the board is so damn drawy. $10 seems about right.

The turn is a pretty nasty card.
I'd bet half pot or check back I aint that confident in either action really.

I think its very marginal which you go for.
If we check back were gunna have to call a street off on any blank as the busted draws could be trying to take the pot down.
If we bet the turn we get to charge the draws and have a very easy decision on the river.

Ye I'll go with betting half pot.
I would be interested to see the other's replies.
 
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switch0723

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bet ~19 and fold to a shove, these guys wont check raise worse here, but there is still a ton of value you can get from 7x, 8x, spades, JT other random pairs + draw hands like 8T. A 9 isnt really a bad card for you in terms of all the bad ones that could have hit the turn
 
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TimmyOtool

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UTG stack is $51 when the pot started and MP1 stack is $35.

By the turn, their effective stacks are $40 and $25.

MY thought was that if I laid out a good bet on the turn, I would be pot-commited to a shove from either of them. I was thinking of a bet at least half pot on the turn $15-20. If MP1 shoves over say $19 bet, I'm calling the extra $6.

IF UTG shoves over $19 then i'm calling off the remaining $20 getting 3.5 to 1 on a call. ($33+19+19 = $71) 71/20 = ~3.5.
 
trashcan

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I would bet strong and probably call a shove here. I want to discount 88 and 99 from their range cos they would probably raise it pre but not sure about it at NL50. They have many draws on their ranges also. Bet and get-it in although I dont feel good about it
 
F Paulsson

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bet ~19 and fold to a shove, these guys wont check raise worse here, but there is still a ton of value you can get from 7x, 8x, spades, JT other random pairs + draw hands like 8T. A 9 isnt really a bad card for you in terms of all the bad ones that could have hit the turn
Are you really folding for $6 more if MP1 shoves?
 
Deco

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lol just noticed the stack sizes. As if this hand couldn't be anymore awkward.
Now if you had potted the flop this would be an easy shove :p


I still think I bet.
I obviusly pay off the smaller of the two stacks, whilst I think it's unlikely the deeper stack will shove his missed draws on the river for a halfpot bet so I think we can fold there? My bet/fold plan kind of hinges on that fact.

I don't really mind checking back as half the time were gunna be a 75-80% favourite but the other half of the time were gunna be drawing to two outs.
 
F Paulsson

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lol just noticed the stack sizes.

Okay, seriously.

I don't mean to be picking on you specifically, Deco, especially since you weren't the only one who apparently didn't check stack sizes (and it's certainly a common mistake for a lot of people), but this needs to be said and your post happened to be a convenient segway to it:

Stack and pot sizes are really the very first thing everybody needs to check in any no-limit hand. Forget the hole cards. Forget the board. Forget reads, stats and position. These are secondary. No-limit hold'em is a game predominantly about leveraging your stack in relation to the pot. Every decision, every subtlety of the game hinges on it. The idea that someone analyzes a hand without even looking at it betrays a fundamental misunderstanding of the game. It's quite on par with someone analyzing a hand without looking at the holecards or the board.

The only time stack sizes don't matter is when you have the nuts and the only other guy in the pot went all-in. But, being the cool and smart players you are, you'll still know what the stack sizes are before the all-in occurs. It's how we roll.

If you (all of you) make an unbreakable habit of always checking what the pot and the effective stack size is before you even look at the board, you'll come out a much stronger player for it. It's the basis for planning ahead several streets, it's the basis for making sure your bets are correctly sized so you can make really good decisions on later streets and it's what dictates the odds you get and lay. And poker is all about odds.

There, done ranting.
 
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switch0723

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bleh, mines even worse than checking stack sizes, i thought mp1 was mp2 so had a full stack.

I still bet ~19 and call the $6 if mp shoves, but fold to utg
 
Sysvr4

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I started to post on this hand yesterday and couldn't figure out a reasonable line on the turn other than shoving, though I admit that doesn't feel right either.

What I concluded yesterday was that it's imperative we bet the turn, as we're ahead tremendously more than we're behind here, and draws abound. But, as noted above, we can't bet/fold any reasonable amount. And if we're going to bet/call, I think the better play is to shove, but I'm willing to admit I don't love either.

Thoughts?
 
Deco

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lol FP give us a break were used to those hand converters that put the stack sizes in bold. ;)
 
Deco

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anyway more importantly do any of u think its possible to half pot bet then fold to UTGs donk bet?
It will only be a half pot bet if he does so it will be irresistible to call and hence would be a simply stupid bluff. I don't think he'd ever bluff his missed draws there and instead shove his Trips.

Meh I'm prolly overcomplicatin this, I think I may just check back.
 
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switch0723

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Ye i don't mind checking back as an option, and check a whole lot more than i bet generally, but against these guys, i think they are just going to play their hands so face up, that we can just simply bet/fold for value
 
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TimmyOtool

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Hey guys thanks for the replies.

I think i'll show the conclusions from the hand.

I ended up checking the turn. The river was a red 3.

UTG bet $8.50 and I called. He tabled JTo and I took it down with QQ.

In hindsight, I think a bet/call on the turn would have been better?
 
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no need to say analysing with the results doesnt make a lot of sense..

still i think your check shows that it was an option...
it kept the pot from getting huge and made the river decision easy for you...
if you had bet the turn you might have folded the best hand to a raise....
in fact your opponent was drawing for max 4 outs
 
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switch0723

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if you had bet the turn you might have folded the best hand to a raise....

I disagree here, because i don't think these guys would be c/r with any hand worse than ours, thats why bet/folding is easy because they will play face up
 
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