$50 NLHE Full Ring: QJ two pair with a outs on turn

Jurn8

Jurn8

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$50 NL HE Full Ring: QJ two pair with a outs on turn

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 13/4/1.5

Sample is over 652 hands.

Here do we have enough combo draws to shove over his bet, I mean I basically put him on AK,AQ,KQ something like that.

I think we have 1 Queen, 2 Jacks, 4 10s plus 4 flush cards so we have 11 outs to improve and a made two pair is it good to get it in here? I suppose if we shove is it turning our hand into a semi bluff or do we 3bet to say about $30?

poker stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

UTG+1: $90.20 (180.4 bb)
MP1: $92.55 (185.1 bb)
MP2: $44.35 (88.7 bb)
MP3: $51.75 (103.5 bb)
CO: $46.25 (92.5 bb)
BTN: $50 (100 bb)
Hero (SB): $59.40 (118.8 bb)
BB: $81.40 (162.8 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with Q:club: J:club:
4 folds, CO raises to $2, BTN calls $2, Hero calls $1.75, BB folds

Flop: ($6.50) Q:heart: 5:club: A:club: (3 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $3.50, BTN calls $3.50, Hero calls $3.50

Turn: ($17) J:diamond: (3 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $12, BTN folds, Hero ??
 
Q

Qutsemnie

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(disclaimer: I suck at winning money and I play tiny stakes! Largely cause I can't get out of hands where I am beat which would seem to be a concern here =)

His bet is 2/3rds the pot. I was looking at another of these where the person checked the turn and then mocked someone with a donk hand for making the flush. But I pointed out after you look at all the pot odds at each of the calls he was good.

Here this could be someone with a pair of aces and a decent kicker that doesn't want to make it profitable for someone with a flush draw to call (the problem is half of those decent kickers are two pairs that beat you).

If he has AQ or AJ your screwed. Your villan is 13/4/1.5. So he is tight. He is playing what of the aces AK AQ AJ AT? He might bet KT like this though I think most of you wouldnt? This bet is in the range of play for KK? He would play JJ and QQ though they are now unlikely to have been drawn preflop. He could have QJ again just as unlikely as JJ or QQ.

So of AA-T, KK-T, QQ-J, JJ thats 12 hands and you beat 6 of them. Your being asked to pay 12 dollars to get into a 41 dollar pot which still seems cheap. I think you call it (at first I thought you put it down). You do have a flush draw and I think that tips it over to easy call. Though I guess you might ask whats going to happen to the betting on the river? It will be interesting to see what the pros say.
 
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S

switch0723

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c/r flop

as played just shove, I don't see what the trouble is, when our hand is the best here a ton, and when its not, we have at least 12 outs most of the time
 
BelgoSuisse

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You're never folding a better made hand here, so you can't semi bluff since you very much can't bluff at all.

Two lines make sense.
1. Raise flop when you have a ton of equity and better fold equity.
2. once you flat flop, keep on flatting and hope to be ahead. Two pairs might be good.
 
Jurn8

Jurn8

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Yeah thats what I was checking switch, just seeing if my shove is cool with all the outs plus two pair.
 
Tygran

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RAISE that flop!

as played, shove is ok... i might flat it here instead though... partly because it's still 3 way and even if the flush comes in (and especially if the boat comes in) good chance random aces pay you off. KT will certainly pay you off as well.

You'll be ahead often enough with 2 pair and when you aren't you have 9 flush + 4 boat outs.
 
Wes747

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You stated that your outs are "1 Queen, 2 Jacks, 4 10s plus 4 flush cards ". You are assuming that he has a queen, which is fine if you have that read, but why do you only see 4 flush cards as your outs? And why is one of the 4 10's an out for you? I see your outs as 1(2)Queen(s), 2 Jacks, and 9 flush cards. Thats 12 or 13 outs along with the possibility that your 2 pair is best here.

Also, I would take KQ out of his range here. If hes only raising 4% of his hands pre-flop he won't be raising KQ. He either has AK/AQ or a high pocket pair. (Thats what I would put him on at least)

And to answer the question, I would shove here. This is either a fold/call/shove situation. Theres really no point in 3 betting as it will just put you in tough spot on the river if you don't hit your flush/boat.
 
Jurn8

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RAISE that flop!

as played, shove is ok... i might flat it here instead though... partly because it's still 3 way and even if the flush comes in (and especially if the boat comes in) good chance random aces pay you off. KT will certainly pay you off as well.

You'll be ahead often enough with 2 pair and when you aren't you have 9 flush + 4 boat outs.

why we raising the flop?
we getting it in to a 4bet? surely we cant?
 
Jurn8

Jurn8

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You stated that your outs are "1 Queen, 2 Jacks, 4 10s plus 4 flush cards ". You are assuming that he has a queen, which is fine if you have that read, but why do you only see 4 flush cards as your outs? And why is one of the 4 10's an out for you? I see your outs as 1(2)Queen(s), 2 Jacks, and 9 flush cards. Thats 12 or 13 outs along with the possibility that your 2 pair is best here.

Also, I would take KQ out of his range here. If hes only raising 4% of his hands pre-flop he won't be raising KQ. He either has AK/AQ or a high pocket pair. (Thats what I would put him on at least)

And to answer the question, I would shove here. This is either a fold/call/shove situation. Theres really no point in 3 betting as it will just put you in tough spot on the river if you don't hit your flush/boat.

I cant count/retard + was like the 20th HA post so I thought I had straight split pot outs but I suck and didnt sorry for confusion.
 
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feitr

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Raising flop is not good imo. Guy is so tight and if you get it in on the flop you are vs AK at absolute best and are flipping. In real aggro games when flipping is fine (considering dead money) and villain will show up with worse draws/pairs sometimes then raising is ok.

As it is, the only argument for flatting turn is if you can fold 2 pair to a river shove if your draw outs miss (or if villain would check back a better 2 pair on brick river, but call if you donk shoved a club/T river). You could have up to 14 outs if you are behind (since AQ is best scenario), 12 in worst case scenario (AA or QQ) and 2 pair will be good some of the time so shoving is fine, esp. considering that villain would probably check back AK on river (ie. you'd lose value from the range you beat by not shoving turn).
 
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feitr

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Whoa, wait a second, nevermind the last post. I guess i read the OP and presume you had a gutshot as well w/o actually looking, which ofc you don't. So that is 3 outs gone, and actually makes this tougher. So 11 outs if you are behind to AQ (6 combos of AQ coz of card removal), and 9 in worst case scenario (of which there are 4 combos, one QQ and 3 AA). So lets just say you have 10 outs when behind which is only 22% equity. If you shove, it is $41 to win $99. So you actually have to be good here alot to shove. So the question is how often does villain have AK and will he call a turn shove with it? 12 combos of AK, but not sure whether he even double barrels it or would call a turn shove. AK has 9 outs so 20% equity. So villain will have basically the same equity with AK as you do with your hand when you are behind (ie. not vs AK), which means it basically has to be AK 40% of the time and AA/QQ/AQ the other 60%. 12 combos of AK to 10 combos of the rest, so if villain was to do this equally as likely with all those hands, it would be slightly +EV. Problem is that you can't semi bluff here since you can't possibly fold a better hand.

Boils down to if villain shoves river, can you fold 2 pair knowing he would never do it with AK? If so, then flatting turn may be best. But it is very complicated when you add other factors, such as will AK call turn shove, what would he call with/fold on what rivers to a donk shove on river, how wide will he vbet river and what part of his range would he check back (and again, on what river cards). For example, would villain check back AQ on club river, check back on brick river, vbet on brick, vbet on any river? What about AK? And how would these hands respond to river donk shoves and on what river cards?
 
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Jurn8

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so basically its a pretty shitty crap spot ? I will read that again feitr as its pretty in depth response lol
 
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feitr

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Well it is a shitty spot because you have a strong hand that could very well be crushed, so you don't really want to shove since alot of villain's range is (presumably) ahead. And then you have some strong equity in your draw, but you have no fold equity since you can't fold out a better hand. Then you also have the problem that this would be a hard hand to fold to a shove on a brick river, and if you can't fold 2 pair (or villain won't check back a better hand on a brick river) then there is no advantage to calling a river shove as opposed to shoving turn, when villain is never bluffing and may even check back worse on river that would call turn shove (ie. AK).

It depends alot on villain. If villain will shove or call w/ AQ on any river, not vbet AK on river but call donk shove, then i would call turn and donk shove any club/J and c/f to a river shove on a brick. But i can't tell anything about villain's postflop tendencies since i know nothing about him.
 
JonasBluffer

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Wow dude, I think that JQ is not a good hand to call a pre flop raise...
 
WVHillbilly

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Why does it seem like you posted this exact hand twice?
 
B

bfw0082

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you have to play it out, you are more then a 50% favorite, he might have the str8 but you can beat it with a club, his river bet might be value to make you call, and if u hit the club you might get his stack
 
X

x4n4x

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Push it. I would put him on AK. You might hit the monster flush as well. That two pair is gonna be completely unexpected to him so take all his money.
 
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Pat Riot

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You should asked yourself that question preflop, so am agree with JonasBluffer, but now cause you'r on turn, with 2 pairs and flush draw, what you need more than that? I mean... Why you went there with QcJc? To get lucky right?

I can understand you feel uncomfortable with your miracle turn, a little voice in your hand asking your self if you still beaten or not... And answer is maybe. Problem came from preflop...

Now on turn, does he bet cause you check or not? Cant say cause you checked the flop and the turn, so the only thing you know it's you were owned preflop, and even with that miracle "hit" on turn you can still be owned, i saw that so many times...

Maybe he was just on stealling blinds attempt, right, with AJ, AQ, A5 or 55
Maybe not and he have AA, KK or QQ, you beat one hand here
You also beat KcQc, on turn. 10 outs left for him...

But yeah, you beat AK, funy how we love to put them on AK when we wish to win uh? I ever did that too many times in the past, but i fixed my preflop play since.
 
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