$50 NLHE Full Ring: Line check

skrsh76

skrsh76

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Have a history with both villains. Both have seen me with nuts and bluffs

UTG + 1 is a 20/ 14 player with 7% 3B but a loosing player(4BI down) in 300 hands has lost 3 BI. Stacked me with once with a B/B/ B when he flopped a set

UTG is a 24/20 with 6% 3B again a loosing player(1 BI down)in 70 hands

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php

Hero (BB) ($50)
UTG ($62.87)
UTG+1 ($50)
MP1 ($69.27)
MP2 ($50.75)
CO ($61.19)
Button ($50)
SB ($50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8
spade.gif
, Q
spade.gif

UTG raises to $1.50, UTG+1 calls $1.50, 5 folds, Hero calls $1

Flop: ($4.75) 6
spade.gif
, A
heart.gif
, K
diamond.gif
(3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks

Turn: ($4.75) 10
spade.gif
(3 players)
Hero bets $2.25, UTG calls $2.25, UTG+1 raises to $12.50 ???
 
IPlay

IPlay

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Pretty simple math spot here. Reads barely even matter.

Folding this pre also
 
S

Simplex

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Your gutshot with the flush draw on the turn puts you about 28%. Having to call $10 to win $21.50 (roughly) puts your call/pot ratio at 0.47 or 47%. He priced out. Mathematically, this is a fold.
If however, he reraised a more conventional 3X, to $7.5, c/p ratio is 30%. So essentially, it's a break even spot. So if I think he will call a value bet , its slightly profitable long term.

And agreed. Q8 suited not generally in my range. Think Q10 suited would be at the bottom of my range.
 
S

Simplex

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And assuming he doesnt already have Q J.
 
M

MinhANguyen

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Check-call turn. Pretty suspicious that UTG didn't bet flop. And I don't think you have any fold equity vs UTG & UTG +1 cold-call. As played, probaby folding. Calling is okay, but probably somewhat -EV. I think UTG has AA/KK a decent amount of time and missed the fact that QJ got there, or some QJs that he tilt-opened with.

Any broadway hand other than AQs is a fold pre. Too much reverse implied odds vs UTG & UTG +1 cold-call. Would rather flat any PP, 109s, 87s-. Not flatting 98s because on a QJ10 board you'll get coolered by AK.
 
Last edited:
P

pyrotheassassin

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Your gutshot with the flush draw on the turn puts you about 28%. Having to call $10 to win $21.50 (roughly) puts your call/pot ratio at 0.47 or 47%. He priced out. Mathematically, this is a fold.
If however, he reraised a more conventional 3X, to $7.5, c/p ratio is 30%. So essentially, it's a break even spot. So if I think he will call a value bet , its slightly profitable long term.

And agreed. Q8 suited not generally in my range. Think Q10 suited would be at the bottom of my range.

Good analysis by Simplex. I would like to look at implied odds. Do you believe Villian would fold two pair (AK, AT, or KT), set, or straight (QJ) to the backdoor flush draw? If he wouldn't, then you have some implied odds in your favor that could make this worthwhile. If he would call a shove from you, then your odds here are $10 to win ($21.50+$36)= $57.50 or a call/win ratio of 17%, or 1% shy of being profitable for the flush draw (~18%). So, in order for implied odds to make this profitable, you need the UTG to call as well, but if UTG calls, he could be on the (unlikely) nut backdoor flush draw, which could place you in a terrible situation. Therefore, it looks like folding is the best long-term profitable option here, especially since to get this high, a river overbet on a third flush card is required if UTG folds the turn.
 
John A

John A

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Fold pre-flop... not sure what you're doing here against two solid regs in your game that are opening early. This is a highly -EV call pre.

Fold on the turn. Pretty straight forward. If you have the nut flush (ignoring the fact this would give you TP on this board), you could perhaps make an argument for a narrow call w/ implied odds. But with what you have and the odds, it's a fold.
 
Beanfacekilla

Beanfacekilla

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I agree with the others, fold pre. This is FR, and you have a pretty meh hand. Why do so many folks like playing OOP with napkins???

We are against an EP open and a call. Cmon. How well does this hand play against that? You aren't Tom Dwan or Jason Somerville. Wait for an easier spot.



We could easily be drawing to a chop with straight, so consider that road dead. We need a flush, and it's not even the nuts. It even smells like QJ a little (V). Not to mention, is V likely to pay off on A-K-10-J-X with 2p? A set? I don't know about that.

It's not even close, fold turn. Implied odds maybe, but it could also be reverse implied odds fiasco if we hit (rare, but hey, we are drawing to 3rd nuts, get ccolered by some hands).
 
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