Originally Posted by Simplex
Your gutshot with the flush draw on the turn puts you about 28%. Having to call $10 to win $21.50 (roughly) puts your call/pot ratio at 0.47 or 47%. He priced out. Mathematically, this is a fold.
If however, he reraised a more conventional 3X, to $7.5, c/p ratio is 30%. So essentially, it's a break even spot. So if I think he will call a value bet , its slightly profitable long term.
And agreed. Q8 suited not generally in my range. Think Q10 suited would be at the bottom of my range.
Good analysis by Simplex. I would like to look at implied odds. Do you believe Villian would fold two pair (AK, AT, or KT), set, or straight (QJ) to the backdoor flush draw? If he wouldn't, then you have some implied odds in your favor that could make this worthwhile. If he would call a shove from you, then your odds here are $10 to win ($21.50+$36)= $57.50 or a call/win ratio of 17%, or 1% shy of being profitable for the flush draw (~18%). So, in order for implied odds to make this profitable, you need the UTG to call as well, but if UTG calls, he could be on the (unlikely) nut backdoor flush draw, which could place you in a terrible situation. Therefore, it looks like folding is the best long-term profitable option here, especially since to get this high, a river overbet on a third flush card is required if UTG folds the turn.