$50 NLHE Full Ring: Like my line? Turn Shove?

$50 NL HE Full Ring: Like my line? Turn Shove?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 40/9/1

Villain is your typical fish, have about 40 hands on the guy. Let me know if you like my line and a turn shove is in order or not.

poker stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

MP1: $37.45 (74.9 bb)
MP2: $20.30 (40.6 bb)
MP3: $68.20 (136.4 bb)
CO: $45.45 (90.9 bb)
BTN: $9.50 (19 bb)
Hero (SB): $50 (100 bb)
BB: $44.90 (89.8 bb)
UTG: $21.20 (42.4 bb)
UTG+1: $50 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with K A
UTG raises to $1.50, 4 folds, CO calls $1.50, BTN folds, Hero raises to $6.50, 2 folds, CO calls $5

Flop: ($15) J 6 T (2 players)
Hero bets $11, CO calls $11

Turn: ($37) J (2 players)
Hero ???

PF and on the flop i think the line's perfectly fine, I don't know about a turn shove though, I'd prefer to c/c a small bet or hopefully get to see the river for nothing, it looks weak and it screams ace king but AJ,JQ,JK are all possible holdings for the villain so you can't depend on the straight outs (apart from the Qc obv) or the 6's aces and kings as outs imo.

If he bets big you can get away from the hand and felt him later on, if he decides to try and trap you and check his trip jacks then you could spike a club for free, or he might just have some type of straight draw or a bad fd and check the turn anyways.

I just think of all the cards he COULD be holding that aren't folding to a shove on the turn, AJs-A9s,KJs-K9s,QTs+,AJo-ATo,KJo-K9o,Q9o+ just put that into pokerstove and it's a coin flip so its up to you, but i don't like to get my money in in marginal spots so i'd probably check hoping to see the river for free or to call a small bet, i would be happy folding if he bet big though.

Just my 2c and your a lot more experienced than me so i could have got it all wrong lol

Interesting hand.

Preflop: what are UTG's stats? Are we really raising for value against an UTG raiser's range here? Isn't this a spot where raising folds the hands we crush (AQ and the likes) and we stack against a better range? I think at the very least at FR we need to consider flatting here is a possibility. Anyway, UTG folds to our raise so he was probably somewhat weak.

Now if we do decide to raise, i think I like raising a little higher. $6.50 is strictly pot-sized, but i like going a little higher oop. Probably make it $7.50 or $8 here.

Flop: we have great equity with two overs plus the gutshot and the flush draw. On the other hand, the flop really didn't hit our range and we're only repping an overpair by cbetting, so i would not expect a ton of cbet success here unless he's strictly set mining with questionable odds. Against an aggro villain, i'd probably go for a check-raise all in. Against this villain I probably fire the cbet but i don't like it too much.

Turn: meh. The J is a bad card for a second barrel. We can't rep a J, imo, so firing a second barrel means we now rep strictly QQ+. Villain is obviously never folding a J or a boat and there are certainly some in his range. The rest of his range is probably made of over and under pairs, maybe Tx, KQ for an oesd and AK/AQ. We're clearly way behind this range now, so pushing is only good if we fold a significant part of the part of his range we're behind. The only candidates for that are Tx and underpairs. I'm not sure how many of those are still there.

Frankly I don't know.

Hmm, bad turn, but i think that he had pair of jacks on flop.. Then he got trips from turn, you should check and let see what he do's..
You have flush & straight draw there.. ;/
If he bets more than 15$.. Fold.. Its not very nice if he bets 30$ and you call, and you get nothing from river so.. Tough decision.

I play it pretty much the same way up to the turn. I would love to get it in on the flop, but were probably never gonna get a chk/r versus this type of villain.

On the turn, well my thoughts are he's pretty passive/calling type so I don't think we have much FE tbh so in these situations I probably go chk/call here. If he shoves thats sick!

He's pretty passive so I actually expect him to check behind most hands without a Jack or a boat. I think I actually like ch/folding that turn(well I don't like it but I dislike it least I guess).

Actually I don't think going for a ch/raise on the flop is that bad of an idea either. I mean if he doesn't bet the flop we get to see the turn for free and with the 3bet preflop we can still get everything in the middle with only 2 streets of betting if he checks it back on the flop. If he does bet the flop we're raising AI with really good equity and we see the last 2 cards.

CRAI flop, as played jamming turn is fine since we're calling a shove from him anyways, so we should be shoving.

When you check that flop he's usually going to bet with his entire range, and against that range you have great equity and huuuuge fold equity. CRAI.

ChuckTs said:

CRAI flop, as played jamming turn is fine since we're calling a shove from him anyways, so we should be shoving.

When you check that flop he's usually going to bet with his entire range, and against that range you have great equity and huuuuge fold equity. CRAI.

Click to expand...

A 40/9/1 bets his entire range here? If he does, I fully agree that CRAI is by far the best play.

Very interesting hand.

I'd agree with Chuck about preflop... 40/9/1 is probably going to bet anything at all that hit and alot of things that didn't hit... I'd expect anything from 33 to 9K (gutty!!) to AK to AT etc... ie anything that even remotely "connected" (I use this term very loosely here) to bet, probably on the smallish side.. but definitely bet. So..as a result I prefer a CRAI on that flop to a bet out line which he is going to flat with a huge number of hands and then you will be sitting there on the turn wondering wtf do I do now.

Depending on how bad he is... he may never fold a pair here in which case I don't really like shoving this turn. He certainly could have a random J, but he could also have tons of other stuff. I think I check this and simply call anything reasonably small enough as played.

I'm doing this for three reasons:

1) he looks like the type who is simply going to call down with *anything* most of which currently beats us (22 for example) He *might* fold the weakest parts of it to a shove, and he might not. I don't expect us to have much FE here, if any.
2) I expect him to check behind a reasonably large percentage of the time, and bet small if he does bet a good percent too. I don't really expect a huge bet from him and if he does bet huge that's often a J or better I think.
3) If he is going to call is with his whole range anyway, I expect him to still call alot of it if you do hit your hand on the river. So check/calling a reasonable amount gets us to the river cheaper where you can often get more value if you hit and get away if you miss.

I am curious chuck.. if we check and he shoves we are always calling this turn? You really think we have that much equity against a shove here (against this particular player)? I kinda don't since I only expect him to shove the strongest part of his range (we are waaay behind a J or a boat), but I'm curious as to your reasoning.


EDIT: I also think I am coming to the decision that against people who just. don't. fold. I really don't love 3bet/cbetting AK from oop when it misses (yes I know we didn't miss here with the flush/straight/overcard outs but in general) since they call down so light and fold so little... starting to flat this a little more often and just give up when I miss against these types when they just don't fold. If the 40/9 CAN fold (some can) that's different.

would fold preflop...just play pocket pairs in these donk games...KA is going to lose more than winning..just saying from experience

n2kfactor said:

would fold preflop...just play pocket pairs in these donk games...KA is going to lose more than winning..just saying from experience

Click to expand...

uh.. how about no?

the key is to lose a little, win a lot with it.

be willing to let it go and not even try to cbet it against certain players when you whiff on the flop. You'll hit and get paid off enough to make it so incredibly worth it.

missed the reads tbh Belgo, but even so I think he's betting a ton. 1 AF is still significant for a 40 vpip player and I'd expect him to bet more than enough to make CRAI viable. Not sure it's best after looking at reads; I think cbetting (good sizing btw, sets up a turn shove perfectly) and shoving any turn is just as good if not better.

n2kfactor said:

would fold preflop...just play pocket pairs in these donk games...KA is going to lose more than winning..just saying from experience

Click to expand...

Fold preflop.. Wow... definetly not :S.

Standard open pot from UTG 3BB, but a very sizeable reraise? if he has high pockets your not raising him off them, and are most likely to get 3 bet. So even a raise to $4.50 preflop here would minimize the size of the pot and what you would have to lead out for.

He's also a passive player and you are OOP. I like the bet on the flop, but what do you think he has? he could be slow playing say QQ+ a set, or he is drawing, or AJ AQ.

Id check this turn, looks weak but im assuming im behind here, and he is passive, you bet he might raise, check and pray for an out you arent infront right now.