Preflop: what are UTG's stats? Are we really raising for value against an UTG raiser's range here? Isn't this a spot where raising folds the hands we crush (AQ and the likes) and we stack against a better range? I think at the very least at FR we need to consider flatting here is a possibility. Anyway, UTG folds to our raise so he was probably somewhat weak.
Now if we do decide to raise, i think I like raising a little higher. $6.50 is strictly pot-sized, but i like going a little higher oop. Probably make it $7.50 or $8 here.
Flop: we have great equity with two overs plus the gutshot and the flush draw. On the other hand, the flop really didn't hit our range and we're only repping an overpair by cbetting, so i would not expect a ton of cbet success here unless he's strictly set mining with questionable odds
. Against an aggro villain, i'd probably go for a check-raise all in. Against this villain I probably fire the cbet but i don't like it too much.
Turn: meh. The J is a bad card for a second barrel. We can't rep a J, imo, so firing a second barrel means we now rep strictly QQ+. Villain is obviously never folding a J or a boat and there are certainly some in his range. The rest of his range is probably made of over and under pairs, maybe Tx, KQ for an oesd and AK/AQ. We're clearly way behind this range now, so pushing is only good if we fold a significant part of the part of his range we're behind. The only candidates for that are Tx and underpairs. I'm not sure how many of those are still there.
Frankly I don't know.