$50 NLHE Full Ring: KK vs flush draw

$50 NL HE Full Ring: KK vs flush draw

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 17/4/1

518 hands on villain.

This hand came up in a HEM analysis session after a sweat I did tonight with WVH. And thanks again, WVH -- it was cool to put a voice with the name and I think (hope) I took some things away that will help me out a lot with my horrendous downswing.

Anyway, he and I were analyzing this hand and he had some issues with it. He suggested I post it here to get analysis from others.

full tilt poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 529461
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (UTG): $92.15
UTG+1: $30.90
UTG+2: $82.35
MP1: $64.50
MP2: $114.55
CO: $103.95
BTN: $53.00
SB: $211.05
BB: $99.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with K ♥ K ♠
Hero raises to $2, 2 folds, MP1 calls $2, 2 folds, BTN calls $2, 2 folds

Flop: ($6.75) J ♥ 4 ♣ 7 ♥ (3 players)
Hero bets $5, MP1 calls $5, BTN folds

Turn: ($16.75) 6 ♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $8, MP1 calls $8

River: ($32.75) T ♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $21, Hero ????

I'd like to hear others thoughts on Hero's turn play and what you'd do on the river as played.

With his stats, he's seems like a non aggressive call station type. For him to bet the river, you are sure to be beat with either a set that he was floating or the flush, you kept the pot relatively small so you can let it go....easy fold. If you raise/shove, you will only get called by better and I'm sure he's calling. JMO.

Not a 50NL player- but here is my thinking. Villain is weak, tight, passive.
Flats raise from UTG. Flop is J high with a flush draw. Hero makes a standard Cbet and villain calls.
I guess what J's are in his range? JTs-maybe, QJ,KJ,AJ and JJ for sure. All of those flat you here especially when you get a weak tight player- he's not likely to raise you with AJ IP anyway. There are also some flushdraws there most of them the nuts with your K out of the way... but how many with the K and J of hearts gone?
Turn draw hits... but I think if he has AJ or KJ (especially if the AJ has Ah in it) then he is certainly going to call you.
So what was the plan on the turn? 1/2 pot sized bet and then c/f the river? I dont think that makes a lot of sense really as most of his range is made jacks and the nut flush sometimes. Though you know he does not have the Kh and he chose NOT to raise you on the turn. Seems like he was planning on calling you down with a J.
On the river you check and he betsplodes?! If he has a flush here its AhQh, maybe AT and a few other wierd A's but with the J and K spoken for what other two card Heart combos is a 17/4 playing? I would imagine this is a strong J (maybe a JT...maybe)way more often than it's the flush pouncing on your river check to "value bet" the river, why would the flush raise here and not on the turn unless he figures you would hang yourself...whish is possible.
I just think you're way ahead of his range here. If you bet the turn and he calls I think you either c/c or b/c the river I really dont like folding the river when so many of the hands that beat you cannot be there given his range.

I think we could be dead to a flush or set when he calls the turn, the only J (other than a set) that I can put him on is AJ, the rest of his range is flushes and sets, provided that his pre-flop stats indicate he plays in a similar way post-flop.

With that being said, I take the same line as you on the turn because I think I'm overthinking it and I could be wrong about how few J's are in his range, my plan is to make a value bet on any blank river and fold to a raise. If the river is a heart then I'm check-calling, calling any bet.
As played, I fold on the river because the river doesn't cause him to turn any made hands into bluffs and there's no air in his range when he gets to the river, I also don't think anything we beat value bets this big.

I could see this player having a flush here. Or at least JT.

Don't think he'll bet anything we beat like QJ+, unless his bluffing with it.

Tough spot on the turn OOP.


Does anyone think that a 1/2 bet+fold on the river makes sense? Since this player would never raise without the goods, but would call down with worse ?????

TimmyOtool said:

Does anyone think that a 1/2 bet+fold on the river makes sense? Since this player would never raise without the goods, but would call down with worse ?????

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Yep.

Why'd we check the river? I assumed it was to induce bluffs, so I call - but I vastly prefer b/f on the river.

Anyone else like a c/r on the turn. We have the overpair and outs to the K high flush.

slycbnew said:

Why'd we check the river? I assumed it was to induce bluffs, so I call - but I vastly prefer b/f on the river.

Click to expand...

Exactly my question/thinking. I would assume we're checking here to induce a bluff (or we're giving up completey)?

What flushes are in this guys range?
There are sets in his range, but as played I doubt he has JJ- he would have raised pre, even TT might have raised pre thats very close to his happy spot.
So if we discount JJ and TT then we're left with 3 possible sets, two (three?) possible flushes (AQs,ATs,maybe A9s...but thats marginal)
And lots of TP type hands that call us down at least to the river.
Is a set doing this on the river, or is it more likely on the turn? As I see it we're pretty far ahead of most of the range of hands this guy has and c/c the river is good as a bluff catcher if your nervous but folding seems like a mistake-b/f I guess would be pretty okay as he is not raising a hand we beat...with the one potential exception of AJ- but that is pretty thin.

WVHillbilly said:

Anyone else like a c/r on the turn. We have the overpair and outs to the K high flush.

Click to expand...

Are we really accomplishing anything with a c/r? Do we ever clear out our outs if villain is holding the Ace? Does villain ever call with worse (outside of maybe Ah Jx) ? Does he ever fold better(given this board few 2 pair combos are out)

Lots of good ideas here, thanks for giving me things to think about.

Result was I folded. Looking back at it without remembering the exact thoughts I had, it looks like the turn heart scared me when it seemed like he wasn't going anywhere after the flush draw on the flop, hence my weak half-pot bet there. Him not folding the near pot sized flop bet probably had me thinking he had been drawing with AQh (maybe even ATh though it would be a marginal preflop call) and hit the turn. So yeah, I basically gave up at that point, and his big river bet sealed it for me. I never found out what he had.

WVH says he couldn't see a fold there. He's probably right. We think I have a leak with sometimes being too aggressive on the flop (like when there is an overcard) but then losing my nerve and shutting down prematurely when called down or raised on the river unless I have the nuts.

i think the turn bet was weak. I would have bet 3/4 again to apply pressure on him and his stack on the river. Im never folding here to a raise because it makes no sense for him to raise as stacks would be in on the river anyway so id expect only draws to raise me here. So id be jamming that for value.

Do i ever think he has a flush here? Never no one ever has a hand, and the call on the turn proved that. (still playing for the draw or a weak holding hoping to get to showdown cheap).


If your playing 1-2 tables you should maybe bet a bit more UTG and UTG +1 because you want to start building a pot and to make it hard for the s/c etcs to call, then as you work round reduce your opening bet.

WVHillbilly said:

Anyone else like a c/r on the turn. We have the overpair and outs to the K high flush.

Click to expand...

imo i think a check just plays into this players hands.

KardKlub said:

Do i ever think he has a flush here? Never no one ever has a hand, and the call on the turn proved that. (still playing for the draw or a weak holding hoping to get to showdown cheap).

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Good point here, but don't you guys ever see players doing the rope-a-dope and just flatting to the river with the nuts? Maybe at the stakes some of you play that would be an amateur move, but it seems pretty common where I play. Flushes and sets just calling down 3/4 and pot sized bets until the river and turning over a monster. So his flatting the turn didn't automatically make me think he was still drawing. Maybe I need to ignore the possibility of moves like that and just pay off the rope-a-dopers, it's probably more profitable long-term?

And to answer your question about how many tables, I typically 4-6 tabled around this time, sometimes as much as 8. I'm sure that probably distracted my thinking process as well.

*Walks in late*

slycbnew said:

Why'd we check the river? I assumed it was to induce bluffs, so I call - but I vastly prefer b/f on the river.

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What bluffs can we induce from a 17/4/1 here?
Pretty much non imo so yeah i fold the river but prefer to b/f it aswell.
I guess we could induce from AJ and AhT that some how got to the river?
But thouse hands are calling a river bet more often then there actualy betting so i dont really like checking.

WVHillbilly said:

Anyone else like a c/r on the turn. We have the overpair and outs to the K high flush.

Click to expand...

If villain where aggro reg or just some one that actualy likes to bet,sure, but can we really ever count on this guy to bet?
Given his stats he will probably just check back all his draws and weak made hands and bet his monsters leaving us in a shitty spot.

Ok so maybe the going for the c/r on the turn isn't the greatest play (probably something I would do though) but I can't find a fold on the river if we check to him (bet/fold would be another thing). I asked dmorris to post it because I thought folding the river was a mistake but I wanted to double check because of my stationy tendencies.