$50 NLHE Full Ring: JJ vs nit 3bet button, questionable river decission - also set mining vs nits?

CheckraiseLife · Jul 26, 2011

$50 NLHE Full Ring: JJ vs nit 3bet button, questionable river decission - also set mining vs nits?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 11/9/3

3bet 10% from button, (36 hands)
100% cbet in 3bet pot (3 hands).
600 Hands.
Firstly I call preflop, becuase his 3 bet from button is noticably higher than all of his other 3 bet postions which are in the 3% region, also I call becuase if he has got Aces kings or even queens I hit a set its over for him, uber nits arnt folding overpairs since they wait all day for them ' hey I got me an overpair, gunna stack this off mentality'
I call the flop becuase I feel I could be ahead and probably folding to a turn bet since the nit aint going to double barrel air, as planned he checks so I think i'm ahead, then he makes a bet on the river, ....I dont see how he can be bullshitting but its possible? I think its a fold but that check on the turn got me thinking.

Just want to know wht you think of the overall thought analysis on the hand also
if this nit only 3 bets aces and kings, which he shoves postflop no matter what, is it still profitable to call for a set mine?, massive ev, or slim ev? ,or -ev?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (7 handed)
CO ($49.39)
Button ($47)
SB ($50.25)
BB ($54.66)
UTG ($24.25)
MP1 ($92.25)
Hero (MP2) ($95.16)
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J

, J

2 folds, Hero bets $1.50, 1 fold, Button raises $5.25, 2 folds, Hero calls $3.75
Flop: ($11.25) 3

, 8

, 2

(2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $7, Hero calls $7
Turn: ($25.25) 4

(2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks
River: ($25.25) 6

(2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $14, Hero ?
Total Pot- 39.25

cguru:

acky100 · Jul 26, 2011

Id probably call here just cause the line he took really doesnt look like a set, and maybe he could be bluffing the river with like AK that missed. I cant see these type of players checking back the turn when they have a set and you've already called one street, and would he even be 3betting with hands that could make a set?

I really dont know about your thought process, you called the 3bet because you thought you were ahead of his range as he 3bets a lot, yet you also called incase his range was super strong so you could essentially set mine? If you were only calling to set mine then you arent really getting good enough odds when you're calling like 10% of the effective stack, plus we know he 3bets a lot on the button so purely set-mining he isnt gonna work as his range isnt always strong.

I think you need to choose 1 plan and stick to it here, if it is to call the 3-bet because you're ahead of his range, then you should be happy calling the river here the way the hand played out, im not too sure how i'd of played it... i'll wait for someone better than me to comment but if he's the type of guy who will bet out the river with stuff like AK when you check i think its okay to check it and catch his bluffs, but if he doesnt then id of probably bet folded the river myself.

ben_rhyno · Jul 26, 2011

CheckraiseLife said:
Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 11/9/3

3bet 10% from button, (36 hands)
100% cbet in 3bet pot (3 hands).
600 Hands.
Firstly I call preflop, becuase his 3 bet from button is noticably higher than all of his other 3 bet postions which are in the 3% region, also I call becuase if he has got Aces kings or even queens I hit a set its over for him, uber nits arnt folding overpairs since they wait all day for them ' hey I got me an overpair, gunna stack this off mentality'
I call the flop becuase I feel I could be ahead and probably folding to a turn bet since the nit aint going to double barrel air, as planned he checks so I think i'm ahead, then he makes a bet on the river, ....I dont see how he can be bullshitting but its possible? I think its a fold but that check on the turn got me thinking.

Just want to know wht you think of the overall thought analysis on the hand also
if this nit only 3 bets aces and kings, which he shoves postflop no matter what, is it still profitable to call for a set mine?, massive ev, or slim ev? ,or -ev?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (7 handed)
CO ($49.39)
Button ($47)
SB ($50.25)
BB ($54.66)
UTG ($24.25)
MP1 ($92.25)
Hero (MP2) ($95.16)
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J

, J

2 folds, Hero bets $1.50, 1 fold, Button raises $5.25, 2 folds, Hero calls $3.75
Flop: ($11.25) 3

, 8

, 2

(2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $7, Hero calls $7
Turn: ($25.25) 4

(2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks
River: ($25.25) 6

(2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $14, Hero ?
Total Pot- 39.25
cguru:

How can you be certain he only 3-bets AA/KK? Against a 10% (!) 3-bet range, JJ is doing good:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
1,160,942,112 games 1.105 secs 1,050,626,345 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.891% 56.20% 00.69% 652408536 8065710.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 43.109% 42.41% 00.69% 492402156 8065710.00 { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }

Assuming he c-bets 100% of this range, we have 65% against it on the flop, so floating is the easy choice/ calling to induce further barrels on safe turns and rivers. On the turn, he checks it back, it's either weakness or trapping but we have 67% against his whole range now. The river actually increases our equity to 72% and you checking a 3rd time really underreps your hand and you should be either checking to induce vbets from worse or to bluff catch or even bet out for value. He can easily be value betting here with worse and you don't need to worry about straights as there aare no 5's in his 3-betting range. You have 2.78/1 odds on the river so it's a pretty easy call.

In regard to the nit who 3-bets AA/KK only. If you open to 2.5x and he 3-bets to 7x and stacks off postflop 100% of the time for 100bb, it's always +EV. You hit a set 12.5ish% of the time or 1/8th of the time. 7 times you lose 7bb and have to fold (excluding times you can win with 4 card straights/flushes) for -49bb total. 1 time you win 100bb, so gain +51bb every 8 hands you setmine against this nit. As you can see someone who only 3-bets AA/KK is extremely exploitable and it is hugely +EV to setmine vs these nits if you both have around 100bb+. It is slightly less EV btw if you open to 3x and get 3b to 10bb as then you lose 10bb 7x (-70bb) and gain 100bb once for a profit of 30bb. So tweak your opening raise size to gain more EV when you find yourself set mining vs these nits.

watchtowel · Jul 26, 2011

Would it not be worth raising the flop? It is a great flop for JJ, I wouldn't expect a set much of the time. He could have QQ-AA, but with a 10% 3bet he could also have 99-JJ and if a Queen, king or ace turns or river then it could get difficult?

watchtowel · Jul 26, 2011

P.s. against a 10% range I think setmining with JJ really doesn't do them justice...

CheckraiseLife · Jul 26, 2011

if hes cbetting 100% why not get value from him betting?
check calling for value here, 100% cbet
but sicne hes a nit i really dont see him barrelin to much as for the fact as what does he put me on? all pairs probably, in my exprience if I have anything he thinks i could beat he aint betting river, i just dont see value. in a call there he is not risking ak getting called hes a nit and that check on the turn was pot controll, or he had some suited hand which he made on the river. against a lag i might call but still my thoughts on it so far wanna hear everyones still

bgomez89 · Jul 26, 2011

How is no one else thinking that an 11/9 doesn't 3bet 10% of hands

acky100 · Jul 26, 2011

bgomez89 said:
How is no one else thinking that an 11/9 doesn't 3bet 10% of hands

No i think what OP means is by position he raises 10% on the button, Ive met guys who 3bet lots on the button too, i mean the button is the best position so it makes sense to be 3betting the most there.

I expect that he is pretty much only 3betting for value in EP and probably MP too like KK,AA, AK so i wouldnt be surprised if his 3bet for them positions is only around 2%.

acky100 · Jul 26, 2011

I like the way you check called the flop, you're right nits probably arent going to barrel into you without a really good hand, when he checks the turn back its obvious he isnt strong im just wondering whether its worth calling the river bet, i mean there is definitely suited connectors in his 3betting range on the button but we cant just be scared of flushes unless you know this guy wouldnt bet the river without a hand i.e. isn't capable of bluffing.

bgomez89 · Jul 26, 2011

I must be off today because I just can't imagine this guy to be 3betting scs and 88+ or whatever that other person said

Gunner57 · Jul 26, 2011

The way it was played I think a call on the river is good.

I like the check call on the flop but also would not be opposed to the check raise or simply betting. Check/call-raise is appropriate only if you can expect a C-bet from this guy.

On the turn I raise. I think you are ahead here but not so much you can give away equity. You are out of position so it is important for you to play aggressivly and take this pot now or make him pay to draw.

River check call. Yes you are likely going to win this but I dont like betting on the river with a mid strenght hand. You have good showdown value but if you bet you are only called by what beats you. check call.

acky100 · Jul 26, 2011

I dunno, i might be off but i just thought if hes a competent nit he will not just be 3betting the top 10% of his hands on the button but a mixture of value and bluffs or semi-bluffs as he will probably be 3betting a lot more on the button because it gets a lot of folds, and if it doesn't, he's got the power of position behind him.

ben_rhyno · Jul 26, 2011

Well as I have shown , against a 10% 3-bet range we are ahead on all streets and don't need to consider folding any of them, for reasons stated in my post. I don't see an 11/9 3-betting 10% from the button though.

CheckraiseLife · Jul 26, 2011

acky100 said:
I like the way you check called the flop, you're right nits probably arent going to barrel into you without a really good hand, when he checks the turn back its obvious he isnt strong im just wondering whether its worth calling the river bet, i mean there is definitely suited connectors in his 3betting range on the button but we cant just be scared of flushes unless you know this guy wouldnt bet the river without a hand i.e. isn't capable of bluffing.

I think this is the closest to a definative answer on what to do in this hand.
vs this guy in particular, I just feel like i'm getting value pwnd.

I meen hes checking back all lower pairs, if hes got value hes checking
if he has queens+ he can see my turn check as what my hand is and I can imagine betting here on river with those hands,
just not lovin a call here vs the player type, just dont think hes bluffing here like 70% of the time.

ben_rhyno · Jul 26, 2011

Why would 99 and TT not value bet here? He can also bet big Aces and Kings to get you to fold marginal hands and he doesn't need to be bluffing anywhere near 70% to make the call profitable. I have the feeling you are being slightly results oriented here

CheckraiseLife · Jul 27, 2011

I dont think 99 and TT would value bet here since my hand looks liek a pair and i called a 3bet also and his flop cbet. so i dont think hes value betting those hands i think he just wants to get to showdown, and I dont give him credit for turning ak in to a bluff on the river (this player anyways), I also folded this hand so not results oriented at all, I folded but wondered if it was a call, after seeing replys and thinking of it i think a fold is justified is all.

watchtowel · Jul 27, 2011

Folding here seems crazy to me, if you would fold to this bet I really see no point in calling preflop

vanquish · Jul 27, 2011

he has QQ

Gunner57 · Jul 27, 2011

I think a fold is only justified if you know this player well and know that he would only make this play with catching 2 pair or better (I am not afraid of bigger PP because if he has QQ-AA I am willing to pay him off). Against a random player in .25/.50 who had played tight the last 20-80 hands a fold is not justified here.

His river bet IMO is more likely because of your weakness than his strenght if this player is any good. Overall I would say for JJ to be more profitable for you in the future BET on the flop and turn. When you have a hand dont be afraid of what is under the bed (a monster) and bet your hand.

Dont get me wrong.... the player info is a great tool but if you rely on it too much I think you open yourself up to rely too much on villans history and not enough on the current hand.

Stu_Ungar · Jul 27, 2011

I dont think an 11/9/3 3bets 10% from the BTN

I think he has had a few more hands than usual whilst on the BTN.

Basically you are saying a NIT 3bets more than his PFR! Nits dont 3bet much, they dont raise much and they dont play many hands.

His range is much tighter than you think.

Nits call. Nits setmine in position. He may occasionally bluff with hands like 56s but his range is strong here.

Fold JJ preflop

Stu_Ungar · Jul 27, 2011

BTW 3bet stats take a few hundred hands to converge.

If you want to do it by position you need a few hundred hands per position.

Usually you will see a player type and get a feel for what that player type plays and the unconverged stat will seem to fit the pattern.

If you see a stat which dosent fit the overall player type, assume that stat is incorrect until you consider it convered.

ChuckTs · Jul 27, 2011

1) As mentioned, 600 hands isn't enough for positional 3bet ranges to converge properly. It's safer to make assumptions about his %3bet based on the fact that he's a 11/9 (vpip/pfr converge the quickest of any other two stats) than something else that requires a much bigger sample size and is obviously uncharacteristic (%10 3bet from a %9 pfr player) of this player type. I'd assume it could be more like %7 or 8 max, if even that.

2) Once we establish how wide his 3bet% is, we can derive other conclusions. According to the always-helpful chart in HEM's faq regarding 3bet/4bet game, we know that JJ can be stacked profitably vs a %6.5 3bet range or wider, 100bbs deep.

3) To put it simply, if you don't know what to do postflop, then you likely shouldn't be calling preflop. I've heard better players than myself say "OOP, if it's good enough to call with vs a 3bet, then it's good enough to stack", and I don't disagree.

CheckraiseLife · Jul 27, 2011

so if you think JJ is a fold preflop how about queens? i'm guessing if hes that tight its a fold, but then if we think he has only kings or aces...set mine?
set mine vs uber nits who 3 bet aces and kings?? or do I just muck it since its unprofitable?, i seen a post above saying its profitable but still not 100%

ChuckTs · Jul 27, 2011

I try not to make set mining a habit in 3bet pots. Actually I basically never use that as my reasoning for calling unless the pot is multiway and/or we're getting a ridiculous price. You need around 15:1 implied odds for set mining. We're getting 2:1 immediate with like 11:1 behind, so about 13:1 implied. Not good enough.

Question about QQ: simply put, he only has to be 3betting %3 minimum in order to make stacking QQ profitable vs the %6.5 for JJ. Readless and with the little (and not exactly accurate) info we have on villain and his positional play re: opening up in LP with his 3bets, it's definitely a stack.

Seriously, look at the article in HEM. It's incredibly helpful.

acky100 · Jul 30, 2011

When we talk about stacking with say QQ against a 3% 3betting range, could someone explain how this works, we dont just 4bet shove do we? Do we mean we 4bet and then call a shove whatever? and it's +EV?

I always seem hesitant to stack with QQ against regs and id say most regs i play with have a 3bet of atleast 3%.

Am i mis-understanding something? Sorry to Hijack the thread!

$50 NLHE Full Ring: JJ vs nit 3bet button, questionable river decission - also set mining vs nits?

CheckraiseLife

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acky100

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ben_rhyno

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watchtowel

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watchtowel

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CheckraiseLife

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bgomez89

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acky100

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Gunner57

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ben_rhyno

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CheckraiseLife

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watchtowel

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