$50 NLHE Full Ring: Fold or easy call?

$50 NL HE Full Ring: Fold or easy call?

Villain is 38/2/2.0 over 42 hands. GI am having trouble finding a range here.. is this always QQ, KK, Ax, 10x only? Or should I add a bluff in there somewhere? Am I over thinking this or is a fold actually okay?

I was actually thrilled to see the river ace and then he shoves and I'm like.. why can't I be on my starting 50BB stack lol

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter http://www.flopturnriver.com/

CO ($24.25)
Button ($10.85)
SB ($9.95)
BB ($9.25)
UTG ($31.40)
Hero (UTG+1) ($31.45)
MP1 ($19.25)
MP2 ($10)
MP3 ($9.25)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q , Q
UTG calls $0.50, Hero bets $2.20, 7 folds, UTG calls $1.70

Flop: ($5.15) A , 5 , 10 (2 players)
UTG bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

Turn: ($8.15) A (2 players)
UTG bets $2, Hero calls $2

River: ($12.15) A (2 players)
UTG bets $25.70 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $12.15 | Rake: $0.55

Results:
UTG didn't show
Outcome: UTG won $11.60

I'm wondering why he would shove if he had the nut hand. If I had the fourth Ace, I would make a value bet. You know more about your opponent then I do but my gut tells me he doesn't have the Ace.

I'd say 55/TT more likely than Ax.

Uh.... snap?

I'd reraise the flop I think.
His betting is very odd but I've seen people semi-slowplay nut hands like this before. Still I think I would put him on a smaller pair and call his all-in.

BigThingWithHolesInIt said:

I'd reraise the flop.
His betting is very odd but I've seen people semi-slowplay nut hands like this before. Still I think I would put him on a smaller pair and call his all-in.

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Fixed your post, because you're obviously not thinking.

yeah there's no way im folding this on the river

BigThingWithHolesInIt said:

I'd reraise the flop I think.
His betting is very odd but I've seen people semi-slowplay nut hands like this before. Still I think I would put him on a smaller pair and call his all-in.

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It's typical for a 38/2 kind of guy to min-bet or small bet crap, draws, less than top pairs etc.

But it's tough to raise here, he's almost WA/WB here depending on villain having the A, which he is never folding. The only thing going for a raise is villain has the FD.

I would call river without being too excited about it. He can shove if he has the A here because he thinks you wouldn't fold a boat with the 10 pr higher yourself etc.

ComplexPlaya said:

It's typical for a 38/2 kind of guy to min-bet or small bet crap, draws, less than top pairs etc.

But it's tough to raise here, he's almost WA/WB here depending on villain having the A, which he is never folding. The only thing going for a raise is villain has the FD.

I would call river without being too excited about it. He can shove if he has the A here because he thinks you wouldn't fold a boat with the 10 pr higher yourself etc.

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What Aces are really in his limp/call preflop, double donk small postflop range??? Basically zero. I'm fist-pumping when he shoves.

WVHillbilly said:

What Aces are really in his limp/call preflop, double donk small postflop range??? Basically zero. I'm fist-pumping when he shoves.

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It's hard to say, the thing is I've seen fish-types shove river with their missed draws, they might have donk bet small the flop too (I almost always raise it so wouldn't know about turn), but i've also seen these types bet small a strong made hand trying to induce, and in this scenario the shove makes sense because Hero more than likely has a good boat, and people don't fold that giving the other credit for quads.

Even a 38/2 might know this. Hero should just know the type of fish he is.

I would still call because I don't think the 2nd scenario applies 60% of the time or so that would be needed to make it an unprofitable play.

I really find it hard that everyone is discounting an A here. I've seen so many overbet nut hands, that this is far from an easy call, but I'm not saying I wouldn't call. I think there's no clear cut answer for this every time.

c9h13no3 said:

Fixed your post, because you're obviously not thinking.

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Ooooohh burnnn...
Do elaborate please, I'm here to learn.

ComplexPlaya said:

It's typical for a 38/2 kind of guy to min-bet or small bet crap, draws, less than top pairs etc.

But it's tough to raise here, he's almost WA/WB here depending on villain having the A, which he is never folding. The only thing going for a raise is villain has the FD.

I would call river without being too excited about it. He can shove if he has the A here because he thinks you wouldn't fold a boat with the 10 pr higher yourself etc.

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So isn't a reraise a great way of finding out whether the opponent has an A?
I don't see why I would drop the aggression I showed pre-flop simply because an overcard came and v stole my c-bet?

you did not elaborate at all about his post flop play and aggression.
Just cause he's loose passive pre doesn't mean he has to be post.
I would call here not because he can never have the A, he can and that sucks. But because being a crap player he rarely knows when he's beat and will continue to bet with non nut hands and there are ALOT of those in his range.
here is a nice lil range:

KK,JJ-22,A2s+,KTs,K5s,QTs,Q5s,JTs,J5s,T5s+,95s,85s,75s,65s,A2o+,KTo,K5o,QTo,Q5o,JTo,J5o,T5o+,95o,85o,75o,65o

your equity vs this crazy range is 80%

BigThingWithHolesInIt said:

Ooooohh burnnn...
Do elaborate please, I'm here to learn.

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WA/WB concept. Its in the golden archives.

Call. His Ax range is small for the call. Any why is he raising so small postflop? Why doesn't he shove on the turn with two flush draws out there? He probably has some kind of 10. Trip 10's and 55's are in his range, but I gotta go with a J 10 type hand for the villian. Call.

c9h13no3 said:

WA/WB concept. Its in the golden archives.

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Thank you. I had read that a while ago but I just read it again and it makes a lot of sense (more than when I read it before).
So I take it that means you fold to his AI on the river?

One question remains though that I hope you can shed some light on.
In the examples the v always checks the flop. Here, albeit small, he bet.

dbitel said:

This situation is a perfect example of that (hence why I picked it). A few people for some unknown reason said that A4 will fold if we bet the flop. This is clearly wrong. NO-ONE will limp/call A4 preflop just to fold to a flop cbet when an ace flops. Some other people also said that villain will lead the flop if he had the ace. This is also wrong. EVERY1 c/c or c/r the flop with the ace here (leading this flop with the ace is obv bad, as it misses out on a cbet.)

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Doesn't this change things? If not, why not?

BigThingWithHolesInIt said:

Doesn't this change things? If not, why not?

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Yeah, it does change things, because it makes his likely range weaker, although some villains *will* lead the flop with an ace, especially goofball mo-tards like these guys. So if his range is weak (has a lot of bluffs, and bad hands in it) we should really just call and let him fire it out.

If I had to put our opponent on a range, I'd put him on Tx, 5x flush draws, some mid pairs like 99, and maybe some discounted aces. When the 3rd ace hits the river, and we're only ~60bb's deep, this is a snap. Our opponent could easily be doing this with a ten, and quite often opponents with high VPIP's have a high river aggression percentage as well.

Yeah, we're so good against his range here its not even funny. Combinatronic out a ton of ace holdings, plus the fact that a drooler will most often be donking a lower pair, pocket, or on the the board with the thought that he's finding out where he is, and this is just free money. Sometimes you're raped, but thats poker.

BigThingWithHolesInIt said:

So isn't a reraise a great way of finding out whether the opponent has an A?

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So, you raise flop.

What does he call with? Aces, sets. Waste of money raising against these.

What does he fold, given he's a 38/2? All his air, which is lots. Plenty of Ts, plenty of 5s. You've taken away your opportunity to spike a Q on the turn even if he is playing an Ace, and if he isn't there's a high chance he'll slow down and let you get to a cheap showdown vs say KT on a fairly dangerous board where you have no real redraws.

Then there's flush draws. You raise, he rejams his draw; fold? You're flipping against a hand like K9ss, so it's hardly a good spot to be calling a jam and not making it. He also might spazz out and jam something like AQ because of the flush draw and gutshot possibilities, so you're going to have a hard time telling his value range from his bluffing range. Flatting keeps in weak flush draws and may allow you to extract value on the turn when he calls even without odds.

That's just my take on raising the flop

If you tl;dr - raising folds everything that you beat meaning less value on later streets. IMO

I'd much rather raise turn small for value from a T or flush draw now it's less likely he has an ace.

Anyway, on the river, I call. Last time I called a jam like this he had the quads, but I'm still not sure I can find a fold against a 38/2.