$50 NLHE Full Ring: Flop set and I want to pot control (FR nittiness ITT)

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 16/13/2.5

Opener is the reason to be at the table (53/28/2)
BB is a decent reg (16/13/2.5)

What do you think of checking back the turn?

The river is a pretty good card for us because it takes a couple combos away that beat us but can I raise the river and get called by worse?

Full Tilt - $0.50 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BTN: $54.35
SB: $33.90
BB: $50.00
UTG: $12.65
UTG+1: $296.80
MP: $27.00
Hero (CO): $80.60

SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero has 3:heart: 3:club:

fold, UTG+1 raises to $1.50, fold, Hero calls $1.50, fold, SB calls $1.25, BB calls $1.00

Flop: ($6.00, 4 players) 7:diamond: 3:spade: T:heart:
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets $1.50, Hero raises to $6.00, fold, BB calls $6.00, fold

Turn: ($19.50, 2 players) 9:diamond:
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($19.50, 2 players) 7:club:
BB bets $19.50, Hero ???

I get that his cold call on the flop is uber strong but do you really think he checks turn with TT, 77?

I'm thinking that when you call with your boat he's wondering "WTF"

yeah there are way too many Tx, 89, 78 type hands that just don't believe you on the flop and never fold turn/river given that they either picked up pair+draws themselves, or think you did the same (with 89/78 against their AT or whatever). They probably have JJ+ some non-zero % of the time too.

Bet turn, get it in imo.

baudib1 said:

I get that his cold call on the flop is uber strong but do you really think he checks turn with TT, 77?

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I think it's perfectly reasonable that he doesn't cold call flop then lead turn. Maybe to make sure you don't check back 78-89, but otherwise I think he just expects to c/r turn, so I think 77/TT are definitely in his range.

vanquish said:

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I know what you mean. Trust me I felt sick playing it this way.

baudib1 said:

I get that his cold call on the flop is uber strong but do you really think he checks turn with TT, 77?

I'm thinking that when you call with your boat he's wondering "WTF"

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I think he does check the turn quite often because he knows me well enough to know that I'm going to be betting that turn pretty often after I raise the flop.

ChuckTs said:

yeah there are way too many Tx, 89, 78 type hands that just don't believe you on the flop and never fold turn/river given that they either picked up pair+draws themselves, or think you did the same (with 89/78 against their AT or whatever). They probably have JJ+ some non-zero % of the time too.

Bet turn, get it in imo.



I think it's perfectly reasonable that he doesn't cold call flop then lead turn. Maybe to make sure you don't check back 78-89, but otherwise I think he just expects to c/r turn, so I think 77/TT are definitely in his range.

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I don't think he ever has an over pair. He 3bets 7% and the fish doesn't fold to 3bets ever so he'd almost certainly 3bet JJ+ pre.

Fair enough, but we don't even really need them in his range to get our stack in. 6 combos of sets that beat us on the flop. Start messing with the Tx, 89s etc hands and see how many combos there are, including discounting them from his pf flat and stuff. Still an easy stack.

ChuckTs said:

Fair enough, but we don't even really need them in his range to get our stack in. 6 combos of sets that beat us on the flop. Start messing with the Tx, 89s etc hands and see how many combos there are, including discounting them from his pf flat and stuff. Still an easy stack.

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Ok, so can I shove over his pot bet on the river and still expect worse to call?

Not sure, it's a different question than how to play the flop/turn, obv. His sizing actually has me worried since nothing really makes sense that we have beat - he doesn't always cold call the flop with 7x (and doesn't always flat those hands pf), and 89 doesn't usually do this imo. If he has 89 he can't expect 7x or Tx to fold, and he has showdown value against everything else, so why bother betting at all?

I think this river sizing is really strong, and I can only really see value raising if he can show up with a few 7s like 78 and 67 and even A7s and call a river shove, and/or uses this sizing with Tx and calls a raise/shove, and/or do retarded stuff like turn 89/88 into a bluff, then potentially talk himself into calling your river raise. All of which I find kind of unlikely tbh.

Well he'll have $23 left behind on the river after his bet, so if we raise the river that'll give him some pretty tremendous odds right? So if he's betting his one pair hands then with those odds he's probably calling a shove. If he bet smaller would raising for value on the river be worse?

The turn is really interesting, I guess he could be calling wider on the flop because the fish is in the hand? So then I don't know if his c/r range would be solely nut hands (and by that I mean hands > set of 3's), it'd have some sevens in it, maybe AT? That'd make us want to b/f the turn less I suppose.

Yeah, completely forgot to check what villain had left behind on the river, my bad. Given there are pretty much no hands he can pure bluff with on this river as played, I think raising is just fine since he'll be committed with any hand he's doing this with (all of which have showdown value). I still find his sizing really weird though.

I think if villain had bet like 14 or a blocking bet like 7.50 or something, it'd be an easy river raise. His range is weaker and now includes 89, all Tx, maybe 88, and as a result we can get potentially get bluffier in his mind, so he'll probably be pretty likely to call Tx after we raise.

And yes, I think villain definitely calls wider (both pf and on the flop) not only because the fish is in the hand, but also because we could be bluff-raising and value-raising the flop fairly wide in villain's mind. So hands like KT that normally are a fold to a multiway raise on this flop would shift to a call, then have a really tough time folding the turn given all the draws.

I'm assuming the reason you checked turn was to get him to bet river and the 7 river card changes nothing in my opinion so get your stack in.

Raising flop is great to build pot, and the 9 isn't a great double barrel card to look like a bluff if he has 2 pair so checking here looks like your giving up.

Not sure why you felt sick doing this. There is no way he has you on a set here when you do this. If he holds a higher set 10,10 I'd still have played it the same.

The thing is I can see him flatting the flop with the nuts to keep the fish in but once fish folds I think he takes us to valuetown with TT/77.

KardKlub said:

I'm assuming the reason you checked turn was to get him to bet river and the 7 river card changes nothing in my opinion so get your stack in.

Raising flop is great to build pot, and the 9 isn't a great double barrel card to look like a bluff if he has 2 pair so checking here looks like your giving up.

Not sure why you felt sick doing this. There is no way he has you on a set here when you do this. If he holds a higher set 10,10 I'd still have played it the same.

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I felt sick because I hit my set and I didn't want to get my money is ASAP. I checked behind on the turn because I thought I was beat not some FPS plan to induce a river bluff.

I see, I thought you check back the turn for some deception as you said you had history with him. Fps has nothing to do with.
It
Checking because you thought you were beat is a very weak play. I liked it better when I thought you were playing the man. Or lady.

I might be missing sometihng here but if he is limping/ calling only 3% of hands doesn't that scream set mining? Also If really is 3betting @ 7% as WV says then that is something like 88+ AQo+ ATs+ KJs+ and set mining with 77-22? I may be way off but it sounds like he made 4 of a kind, sevens.

fx20736 said:

I might be missing sometihng here but if he is limping/ calling only 3% of hands doesn't that scream set mining? Also If really is 3betting @ 7% as WV says then that is something like 88+ AQo+ ATs+ KJs+ and set mining with 77-22? I may be way off but it sounds like he made 4 of a kind, sevens.

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Yeah you're missing something, he didn't limp/call. He flatted in the BB and he can do this with a pretty wide range because the opener is a huge drooler so even OOP he can profitably play a fair number of hands.

WVHillbilly said:

Yeah you're missing something, he didn't limp/call. He flatted in the BB and he can do this with a pretty wide range because the opener is a huge drooler so even OOP he can profitably play a fair number of hands.

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ok but 77 would be in that range? Since he checked that turn he wasn't afraid of too much as he would only be behind TT J8 86? I'm guessing he must have felt he was against big pair because the two diamonds on the board didn't seem to bother him either.

These draw heavy boards are still where I have the most difficulty.

Sure 77 and TT are both in his range but as Chuck and others have pointed out so are T9,JT,89,78. And after the river there is only 1 combo of 77 and 3 of TT, so it's actually unlikely that we're beat. My question was more about if I could shove over his river bet and get called by worse and I think the answer to that question was "probably but just bet the ****ing turn you nit!".

I think that "BET THE TURN" should be the 1st rule for UNL.

# 2 should be: Stop shoving QQ vs 3bets by an unknown villain.

#3 should be: don't call a large river bet with just one pair unless you believe villain would bluff or bet a lower one pair than you.

WVHillbilly said:

Sure 77 and TT are both in his range but as Chuck and others have pointed out so are T9,JT,89,78. And after the river there is only 1 combo of 77 and 3 of TT, so it's actually unlikely that we're beat. My question was more about if I could shove over his river bet and get called by worse and I think the answer to that question was "probably but just bet the ****ing turn you nit!".

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do you think he ever has 87 or like AA OTR? given the action?

vanquish said:

do you think he ever has 87 or like AA OTR? given the action?

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He never (at least basically never) has an overpair because the original raiser will call any 3bet so he'd almost certainly 3bet preflop with JJ+. 87 is possible on the river yes.

what about T9?

vanquish said:

what about T9?

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Possible but not sure he pots it on the river. It is a possibility though.

anyways, it seems like a pretty close call either way wrt jamming the river. i dont think jamming would be a huge mistake.