$50 NLHE Full Ring: Facing less than pot on river with AA

$50 NL HE Full Ring: Facing less than pot on river with AA

Hand#2207014367000844 - Pebble Beach 14367 -- $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em -- 2010/04/21 - 15:44:04
Seat 1: Hero ($52.66 in chips)
Seat 2: 0oMo***2 ($66.20 in chips)
Seat 3: Ninj***3 ($45 in chips)
Seat 4: A1RM***4 ($50.24 in chips) DEALER
Seat 5: jaFF***5 ($53.65 in chips)
Seat 8: AA f***8 ($33.40 in chips)
jaFF***5: posts small blind $0.25
Hero: posts big blind $0.50
Dealt to Hero [Ad,Ah]
0oMo***2: folds
A1RM***4: folds
jaFF***5: raises to $1.50
65deuce: raises to $4.50
jaFF***5: calls $3
*** FLOP *** [Td,3s,9h]
jaFF***5: checks
Hero: bets $5
jaFF***5: calls $5
*** TURN *** 4♦
jaFF***5: checks
Hero: bets $11
jaFF***5: calls $11
*** RIVER *** K♥
jaFF***5: is all in 33.1500
Hero : ???

Snap-call. You don't have to overdo the fistpumping when you call, but you can do a small fistpump, at least. I'm trying to come up with any sort of opponent I've played against where I'd fold here, and I'm drawing blanks. What's he supposed to have here that beats you? QJ? KT? A set?

I'm not buying it. I think you'll find bluffed missed draws pretty often, AK some of the time (hey, it's the nuts - why would he fold it on the flop or the turn?) and possibly stuff like KJ or KQ that thought they had a bunch of outs often enough, too. That's to be contrasted with KK, TT, 99, T9 and KT, all of which have to be discounted between moderately and heavily because of the action, and I don't think you'll find that you have less than 30% equity and can make the call.

Rule of thumb: When villain's line makes little sense, don't fold big hands.

Meh, I dunno if it's as snappy as FP suggests

Sure the c/c flop c/c turn shove river line is how bad players play missed draws, but what are we putting him on that whiffed?

There's no flush draw, the logical straight draw (QJ) got there on the river, although I guess 87 did whiff. KT has 2 pair, there's some chance villain took an ultra passive line with TT/99 here.

We're basically hoping villain has floated 2 bets OOP With KJ/KQ and is thinking his shove is for value, or is playing 87 in this manner

Bc this is a 3 bet pot pre I'm more tempted to call, but (short of a read villain is a spew machine) Im not sure what Im expecting to see and I'm certainly not moving my fist even an inch. I think it's pretty close actually

I dunno. I might be overestimating how happy I should be about calling here; I can come up with something like 50 combos of hands, assuming no discounts, that beat us. And that's if he calls the preflop 3bet with T9o and KTo. For our call to make sense, we need him to bluff - or valuebet worse, importantly - less than 25 combos, at most. Versus an unknown, shoving into me when the scarecard falls just makes me so very, very suspicious.

I actually tried to do some filtering for this, but the situation just comes up rarely and finding a decently similar situation is nearly impossible. Only 22 hands since August 1st. My overall river call efficiency $ is definitely in the black, versus a c/c, c/c, donk line, and that includes weaker hands than AA on a board like this.

Based on what I can see in the 22 hand sample that I have, though, it's usually that it's monsters when it's regs that do it, and trash when it's fish that do it. So I guess that's a useful lesson; fold if he seems like a good player, call if he doesn't.

Ok, been some good replies so far. My image on the table is very loose, close to even maniac but I do most of my raising from position and really work the image to get people to play with me in spots where I have the best of it. I have very little info on Villain except that he is somewhat tight.

The thing I was really wondering about this hand is that he calls two streets and then pushes. It seems like a very odd line as after two streets of betting I should have a big hand here.

In the actual hand I snap called, but when I was doing my post session analysis I was wondering if this is profitable in the long run and if I really have a decision in this spot.

Slow player

I'm thinking he was slow playing a set ....waiting for you to bet first....in which case your A's are dead after that river....t all depends on whether or not you can handle losing $11.33 or what ever he bet on the river...I think he has a set!:boxing:

Zybomb said:

We're basically hoping villain has floated 2 bets OOP With KJ/KQ and is thinking his shove is for value, or is playing 87 in this manner

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F Paulsson said:

So I guess that's a useful lesson; fold if he seems like a good player, call if he doesn't.

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Exactly (unlikely good players take this line after calling OOP with these hands to begin with, likely that bad ones do)

I lean toward a fold; reads would be really really important here. I don't think a decent player turns many made hands into a bluff here and I don't think a passive player is showing up with worse than KT -- QJ is really likely imo.

A hand that would make a lot of sense imo would be the AKd. Although I find that most people post hand histories after they've lost a hand and want to see if others would make the same mistake lol... so maybe not the most likely result. However, I could see him raising then calling the rr preflop esp if you have been as you put it "manic". Not pushing because it is nice to see a flop with out pp. Then turning the F-Draw giving him more reason to participate with two overs and the draw. Then hitting the King he probablly thinking you def didn't hit the K and if you did you might just call his big bet with the Q or J kicker...

Idk. just another shade of gray.

Stix

baudib1 said:

I lean toward a fold; reads would be really really important here. I don't think a decent player turns many made hands into a bluff here and I don't think a passive player is showing up with worse than KT -- QJ is really likely imo.

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Its kind of funny because if villain was to call with KT or QJ OOP on flop and turn with a less than pot for the river, he/she is probably not a very good player.