$50 NLHE Full Ring: Effective nuts on river, bet sizing

WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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$50 NL HE Full Ring: Effective nuts on river, bet sizing

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 18/8/1

Full Tilt - $0.50 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BTN: $28.00
SB: $19.75
BB: $75.15
UTG: $44.35
UTG+1: $83.75
MP: $35.70
Hero (MP+1): $50.00
LP: $172.30
CO: $50.00

SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has 9:heart: 9:spade:

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.50, LP calls $1.50, fold, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($3.75, 2 players) 9:diamond: 5:spade: A:diamond:
Hero bets $2.25, LP calls $2.25

Turn: ($8.25, 2 players) A:spade:
Hero bets $6.00, LP calls $6.00

River: ($20.25, 2 players) J:heart:
Hero bets ???

Can we just shove here and expect to be looked up by any Ace?
 
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WillySmackYoAss

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I don't know about any ace, Shoving is close to double the pot, I think he only calls with AT or better on a shove, I would bet about $16 with the intent of calling a raise.
 
Melkor

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I don't know about any ace, Shoving is close to double the pot, I think he only calls with AT or better on a shove, I would bet about $16 with the intent of calling a raise.

You really think A8 or A7 lay this down on the river very often? After flatting two streets? Villain has under-represented his hand on the turn by just flatting if he does have an ace and I think would find it very hard to simply fold the river.

I like a shove just because I don't think there is many hands that don't call a shove but do call, say, a $16 bet. KK would 3-bet pre as would QQ probably, does TT or 88 call? Unlikely to have a 9, can't see what J barring JJ/AJ given the action. Shoving forces the villain to try to find a laydown and the flush missed so there is something to convince villain you are bluffing.

As a last point, villain has a big stack. Would this make him more looser with calls or tighter generally? I don't know, just interested lol.
 
WVHillbilly

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Villain is pretty passive and he's never raising an Ace if we bet other than AJ/A9/A5. He's also never betting a missed FD with 2 Aces on board. So the question is do we get calls with hands like A6 if we shove? Do we get called so much more with a smaller bet to make it more profitable than shoving?
 
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WillySmackYoAss

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He only has $10 invested, I think the chance of him calling a value bet are more likely then him calling a shove. I don't know the player, but if you want to shove, I think you'd have a better chance if you check/raise the river. It may go check/check but compared to a shove I think it works the same percentage of the time, which leads me to believe a value bet is the best option. Not many players are paying that off with an A that doesn't play it's kicker for such a big bet.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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He only has $10 invested, I think the chance of him calling a value bet are more likely then him calling a shove. I don't know the player, but if you want to shove, I think you'd have a better chance if you check/raise the river. It may go check/check but compared to a shove I think it works the same percentage of the time, which leads me to believe a value bet is the best option. Not many players are paying that off with an A that doesn't play it's kicker for such a big bet.

So you're saying this is a great spot to shove KdTd???

I think you'd be surprised how often any Ax hand calls a shove on that board.
 
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WillySmackYoAss

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You want to know if you can expect to be looked up with any A and I don't think you can. I never said KdTd is a good shove here, You want to get value on your hand and I don't think you do with a shove. I know I'm not calling with any A very often. He called down two streets close to pot size bets, why push your limits, bet a similar amount and your close to guaranteed being called. You shove on this everytime and I imagine your losing money.
 
WVHillbilly

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Well let's do some math.

He calls $16 100% of the time he has an Ace so we win $36.25.

If we shove and he calls we win $60.50.

So if he calls 60% of the time we shove it's at least as profitable to shove as it is to bet $16.

So does he call with 60% of the Aces he flatted with preflop?

Ignore the case where he has a boat because we're losing the same in either case. I'm not good enough to bet/fold here.
 
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WillySmackYoAss

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I don't agree with a bet fold ever. You described him as passive, so most passive people fold under pressure and calling 60% of the time is a lot. I give players more credit then they deserve, but you play 50NL you know them better than I do. I understand there are an incredible amount of bad players out there, but laying down a weak ace seems so easy that I can't believe people have trouble doing it when they have to.

I think you will get a call from AK/AQ a lot of the time, but I'm not completely sold on a player calling all that often with a weak A.
 
c9h13no3

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Villain's range is 2nd pair hands, trips+, and busted draws.

Villain is also really passive, so we can't expect him to turn a draw or a weak pair into a bluff. Just shove, hope to be looked up by all his "I have a hand" range, and maybe some of his weak pairs cuz he's a station.
 
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Granted I don't play this low, so the typical opponent can be different than what i am used to, but unless I have a read that villain is unusually bad (or that we are both playing a super high level of leveling poker) I think shoves are called next to never by Ax here, since they effectively only have a bluff catcher with Ax. At .25/.50 this obviously could not be the case (villains may be bad enough not to realize they have only a bluff catcher), and if that's so then shoving is fine, but my default is to bet small to make it appear that I am going for thin value. This keeps small Aces in the hand and gives busted draws the illusion that they can have fold equity if they bluff raise. I dislike checking bc it appears I am check calling with a middle Ace, thus discourages bluffs (unless villains are unusually bad). I dislike betting large or overbet shoving bc I think it folds out middle Aces almost always (at least at higher stakes, unless we have a dynamic at the table where I've overbet bluffed missed draws or 3 barrelled air multiple times, in which case shoving or betting big would be the preferred play)
 
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I don't think I'd CR this river against this player very often if ever.


Man, I really love shoving in this spot even if it is grossly over sized. But with your rough calculations I think it is highly he will call more then 60% of the time here with any Ace.

Let the time bank go a bit and shove it. He'll convince himself you busted your draw. :)
 
Weregoat

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Shove or value bet, shove or value bet...

Against his line, I'd be more inclined to value bet. I really can't figure him for a hand that's willing to stack off. Of course, I'm having a really tough time putting him on a hand, Ax maybe, or maybe he just doesn't believe you, without information about your table image and his image of you, and any relevant history, I'd say bet right around the $16.

The few times villain decides to get whacky and raise to bluff (or even if it's to extract value), we're making more money, and we like making money.

I don't think shoving is bad, either. I think when we shove here we increase our chances of getting looked up. (strong = weak) by hands like two pair.

Short answer, I'm not sure what's most profitable for this villain, however given his stack size and the size of the pot, I'd guess that if you get greedy and shove while you are winning less against weaker hands but much more from bigger hands (minimum trips).
 
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