$50 NLHE Full Ring: Check raise on triple diamond board

BLieve

BLieve

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$50 NL HE Full Ring: Check raise on triple diamond board

Once again I am experimenting with a small stack (I felt like suicide miners were getting me much better than I was getting other deep stacks). For this scenario, villain is 19/0 through 21 hands.

Absolute/Ultimatebet Cereus No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (7 handed) - Absolute/Ultimatebet Cereus Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Button ($31.64)
SB ($58.35)
BB ($42.70)
UTG ($77.17)
Hero (MP1) ($21)
MP2 ($9.55)
CO ($56.10)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J
diamond.gif
, J
heart.gif

UTG calls $0.50, Hero bets $2.25, 5 folds, UTG calls $1.75

Flop: ($5.25) 10
diamond.gif
, 7
diamond.gif
, Q
diamond.gif
(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $3.50, UTG raises to $8, Hero ???

What are the chances he is on a semi bluff? Chances of a made flush? There are 2 diamonds stronger than ours, an Ace and a K. Would villain make this move with a Queen in his hand and possibly a high diamond? Can we call here or is shoving the only option if we choose to continue?
 
Z

Zybomb

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Very easy check behind on the flop.

Few cards scare us on the turn, since we have the Jd, checking allows villain to bluff the turn (we'll call on the majority of turns diamond or not). Even if the turn comes an A (or to a lesser extent a K) chances are villain will check again to us again since it likely hit us if we didnt bet the flop.

On the other hand, betting won't fold out Ad ever and likely won't fold out Kd either, so betting doesn't clear out our flush outs. It also won't fold out Qx (with a diamond or not) as Qx will peel at least 1 bet for sure (maybe more since the likelihood of us semibluffing is so strong).

So what will betting achieve? Pretty much fold out worse hands, and get action from bigger draws and Queens. Sure we get SOME value out of Ad hands when they miss, but keep in mind that AdXd is still 40% (AdKd is a favorite but we'll dismiss that bc of preflop action) and the value that we gain is small enough that it is overshadowed by the fact that if we are raised we are put in an uncomfortable spot.

Check behind the flop with the intention of calling all non A non K turns (diamond or not), or betting all non A non K non diamond turns. Should a diamond drop I'd prefer checking behind and calling the river if bet or possibly betting for value if checked to

As played I'd just fold. Chances are either our JJ OR our diamond draw is good (one or the other), but despite having position, we really don't know how to react to more betting on blank or diamond turns, so when we're just gunna be headspun for two streets, I'd rather avoid the situation and just fold
 
slycbnew

slycbnew

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As played I'd just fold. Chances are either our JJ OR our diamond draw is good (one or the other), but despite having position, we really don't know how to react to more betting on blank or diamond turns, so when we're just gunna be headspun for two streets, I'd rather avoid the situation and just fold

Zybomb's analysis here is the nuts, imo, except I think this last applies if we have more of a stack behind. As played, with the amout in the pot, the chance that a flush card makes our hand, and the amount we have behind, I jam - calling w this amount behind would be horrible fwiw.

W even 50bb's as played, I fold.

Of course, I don't like playing short, so take w a grain of salt... :D
 
BLieve

BLieve

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Very easy check behind on the flop.

Few cards scare us on the turn, since we have the Jd, checking allows villain to bluff the turn (we'll call on the majority of turns diamond or not). Even if the turn comes an A (or to a lesser extent a K) chances are villain will check again to us again since it likely hit us if we didnt bet the flop.

On the other hand, betting won't fold out Ad ever and likely won't fold out Kd either, so betting doesn't clear out our flush outs. It also won't fold out Qx (with a diamond or not) as Qx will peel at least 1 bet for sure (maybe more since the likelihood of us semibluffing is so strong).

So what will betting achieve? Pretty much fold out worse hands, and get action from bigger draws and Queens. Sure we get SOME value out of Ad hands when they miss, but keep in mind that AdXd is still 40% (AdKd is a favorite but we'll dismiss that bc of preflop action) and the value that we gain is small enough that it is overshadowed by the fact that if we are raised we are put in an uncomfortable spot.

Check behind the flop with the intention of calling all non A non K turns (diamond or not), or betting all non A non K non diamond turns. Should a diamond drop I'd prefer checking behind and calling the river if bet or possibly betting for value if checked to

As played I'd just fold. Chances are either our JJ OR our diamond draw is good (one or the other), but despite having position, we really don't know how to react to more betting on blank or diamond turns, so when we're just gunna be headspun for two streets, I'd rather avoid the situation and just fold
Zybomb I like your analysis a lot but isnt there any +EV of betting the flop as well? The first is that we dont lose fold equity on the turn if villain bets. The second is our hand is somewhat disguised if another diamond falls.
 
S93

S93

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Zybomb I like your analysis a lot but isnt there any +EV of betting the flop as well? The first is that we dont lose fold equity on the turn if villain bets. The second is our hand is somewhat disguised if another diamond falls.
Betting the flop acomplishes nothing imo.
The hands that call/jam have us beat or if he has something like Ad2x has 42% equity and if he has stuff like AdJx/Kx/Tx where behind/fliping.
And the hands that we beat fold(u honestly expect any one to call a flop bet with a 8high flusdraw or second pair on a board like this?).

Read this https://www.cardschat.com/f49/wa-wb-concept-76525/.

Basicly there are no turn cards that where gonna absolutly hate since even ace or king will spike our equity so just check and play a turn.
Where gonna induce bluffs and some light "value" bets from Tx and if a brick hits his Adx and Kdx are gonna lose a tone of equity.



Why are u halfstacking?
Im yet to see any one halfstack effectivly.
Just buy in full or if you feel like hating your self be shortstacker...
 
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