$50 NLHE Full Ring: Bovada, KK VS shortstack, facing river shoving

XXPXXP

XXPXXP

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a weak player with effective stack about 46BB

think 20 hands his VP is 58, PFR 30 AF is 10.0, Fcb=20
20 hands net lost about 12 bux.

limps from EP

I raise pot with KK at SB

flop Ac Td 9h
we both checked
turn is 2h

I put a delayed Cbet, EP player calls
pot is about 21 BB
he got about 35BB left and I covered his stack.

river is 5h
the EP player jams all in his 35BB,after I checked.

what's your decision VS his shoving?
 
XXPXXP

XXPXXP

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I post because by reviewing the hand
I could not reasonable put EP player in any made hand.
even something like set, top pair, two pair, str8 or made back door flush.
 
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tomnovember

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XXPXXP said:
what do you estimate his pushing river range?
it is very strange EP player make this push?
Click to expand...

Why do you think he may bluff here? He plays so passive, So the only hands he call bluff with are QJ, J8 or 87, 48 kinds of hands. But there are many backdoor flushs (90 kinds) and back door 2pairs (36 kinds), even considering he may not always bluff with missed draws.
 
XXPXXP

XXPXXP

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tomnovember said:
Why do you think he may bluff here? He plays so passive, So the only hands he call bluff with are QJ, J8 or 87, 48 kinds of hands. But there are many backdoor flushs (90 kinds) and back door 2pairs (36 kinds), even considering he may not always bluff with missed draws.
Click to expand...

first he is from EP, even his VP is 58, I don't think 48 should be in his range. The same reason for J8, because from EP he is not easy to play J8.

I don't think he have so many value range in his hand - the initial thought is he at most have weak A some kind of hand.
and
there are many combos of bluff range in his hand range. at least 3 times more than his value push range.
actually the result is I called
he hold 98.

I took down the pot.

but more than the result itself:
funny thing is how other players think the EP's river pushing range?
 
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IPlay

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AF of ten and how weak you and turned up you played your hand I could find a call.
 
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hffjd2000

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Excluding the final result, I would fold at my end.

I just thought he has A with weak kicker.

Anyway, good for you, you took down the pot.
 
TheBigFinn

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XXPXXP said:
first he is from EP, even his VP is 58, I don't think 48 should be in his range. The same reason for J8, because from EP he is not easy to play J8.

I don't think he have so many value range in his hand - the initial thought is he at most have weak A some kind of hand.
and
there are many combos of bluff range in his hand range. at least 3 times more than his value push range.
actually the result is I called
he hold 98.

I took down the pot.

but more than the result itself:
funny thing is how other players think the EP's river pushing range?
Click to expand...

Ignoring the result, what is likely range preflop? Ace X hands have to be 40% of it. Checking the flop is standard. Checking calling the turn with a Ace low is also standard. Pushing the river with any ace on a river brick is a money play. You got lucky, IMHO. Not hugely lucky, but I think your call was negative Sklansky bucks.
 
XXPXXP

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TheBigFinn said:
Ignoring the result, what is likely range preflop? Ace X hands have to be 40% of it. Checking the flop is standard. Checking calling the turn with a Ace low is also standard. Pushing the river with any ace on a river brick is a money play. You got lucky, IMHO. Not hugely lucky, but I think your call was negative Sklansky bucks.
Click to expand...

educate me
how did you get weak A has 40% of his range?

his VP 58%
all cards combo, 52X51/2=1326
and 50% is 600 something
if his limp call is tighter like 50% of that
let's think 28% combo
28%*1326=371 combo

weak A , even from AJ to A2
because there is one A on the board
so each AJ is 12.
AJ , AT, A9, A8, A7, A6, A5, A4, A3, A2 =120 combo

120 combo/370 <33%

where did you got the conclusion of 40%?

and because the board has 9,T, 2, 5,
weak ace combo is less than I put here.
 
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IPlay said:
AF of ten and how weak you and turned up you played your hand I could find a call.
Click to expand...

I do think river is a check situation.
no waste of any bullet.

May I ask, If you play river and want to bet?
what worse hand are you going to get called
or
better hand going to fold?
PS: I don't think I could get shortstack folding weak A on the river.
 
IPlay

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I would not bet the river but I would of bet the flop. You played this hand exactly like JJ, QQ or KK so it was an easy spot for villain to try and bluff.
 
XXPXXP

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IPlay said:
I would not bet the river but I would of bet the flop. You played this hand exactly like JJ, QQ or KK so it was an easy spot for villain to try and bluff.
Click to expand...

it is balance range
If I have AK, AQ type of hand
I still play the same way.
think bet flop or bet the turn is the problem how to balance range.
 
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XXPXXP said:
first he is from EP, even his VP is 58, I don't think 48 should be in his range. The same reason for J8, because from EP he is not easy to play J8.

I don't think he have so many value range in his hand - the initial thought is he at most have weak A some kind of hand.
and
there are many combos of bluff range in his hand range. at least 3 times more than his value push range.
actually the result is I called
he hold 98.

I took down the pot.

but more than the result itself:
funny thing is how other players think the EP's river pushing range?
Click to expand...

I can just say that your play is of -EV, even if you win the pot. If you think you can manage to find the range of the villain. Just call every time you think so and let us see whether it is profitable or not.
 
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XXPXXP

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tomnovember said:
I can just say that your play is of -EV, even if you win the pot. If you think you can manage to find the range of the villain. Just call every time you think so and let us see whether it is profitable or not.
Click to expand...

just want to say.
it is indeed +EV call.
if I am calculating correctly...
the EV is 26.7 Big blinds of this river call. [it is my calculation]
I am putting here to challenge, if you think different, you may post your calculation process :D
 
John A

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With his stats and aggression it's a call. His range is completely polarized to a flush or air and for only about 1/2 stack, it's doubtful I'd fold here. With how you played it, there's no real reason for him to believe you'd call him and he's leveling you with Ax.
 
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