$50 NLHE Full Ring: Is a PSB OTT ever a bluff from apparent nit?

mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.50 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: $54.86 (VPIP: 31.58, PFR: 10.53, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 19)
UTG+1: $61.02 (VPIP: 14.71, PFR: 14.71, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 34)
MP: $50.00 (VPIP: 12.12, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 18.75, Hands: 34)
MP+1: $104.39 (VPIP: 10.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
CO: $20.00 (VPIP: 24.24, PFR: 21.21, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 34)
Hero (BTN): $63.08
SB: $53.77 (VPIP: 21.88, PFR: 15.63, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 34)
BB: $29.04 (VPIP: 17.65, PFR: 2.94, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 34)

SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has J:spade: T:heart:

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.50, fold, BB calls $1.00

Flop: ($3.25, 2 players) K:heart: Q:spade: 8:diamond:
BB checks, Hero bets $1.27, BB calls $1.27

range andvantage OTF Cbet seems standard with drawing equity incase we are called.

Turn: ($5.79, 2 players) 8:club:
BB bets $5.51, fold

when he calls flop, it seems like there isnt much that he will fold to a turn barrel, maybe he has pair of kings or pair of queens, so I check looking for a check back and to maybe call with the correct odds. when he pots it, its just always 8x right?

BB wins $5.51

$0.08 was deducted from the pot for the jackpot.
 
Beanfacekilla

Beanfacekilla

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I might check baco flop here, but if I cbet, I probably go bigger. But we don't always have to cbet. Here, we can draw for free, and it would probably be disguised as well.

Like turn comes A. Dude bets, we raise, yeah. EZ game.

The reason I check back is because that flop is likely to connect with him here, and I don't think we have much FE.


I have no clue what he has here. Maybe 8x. One thing is for sure, we are done with this hand. NH Mr. Villain.
 
IPlay

IPlay

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I might check baco flop here, but if I cbet, I probably go bigger. But we don't always have to cbet. Here, we can draw for free, and it would probably be disguised as well.

Like turn comes A. Dude bets, we raise, yeah. EZ game.

The reason I check back is because that flop is likely to connect with him here, and I don't think we have much FE.


I have no clue what he has here. Maybe 8x. One thing is for sure, we are done with this hand. NH Mr. Villain.

We raised pre and villain defended his BB. Hard to say a KQ8 flop smashes that range. Players are defending their BB very aggressively these days, it's the new trend online.

Flop is a slam dunk CBet with 8 outs to the nuts and range advantage. It is literally one of our best bluffs. We also have no show down value with J high and we can barrel him off a Q.

BB seems like a passive nit going off his stats, I just fold turn. Sure it can be a bluff but there isn't much we can do here. I'm going to take a guess that the villain in this hand is I_RunlikeGod. Also you didn't check the turn, he donked.
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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We raised pre and villain defended his BB. Hard to say a KQ8 flop smashes that range. Players are defending their BB very aggressively these days, it's the new trend online.

Flop is a slam dunk CBet with 8 outs to the nuts and range advantage. It is literally one of our best bluffs. We also have no show down value with J high and we can barrel him off a Q.

BB seems like a passive nit going off his stats, I just fold turn. Sure it can be a bluff but there isn't much we can do here. I'm going to take a guess that the villain in this hand is I_RunlikeGod. Also you didn't check the turn, he donked.

oh yeah duh haha, i should read my HH more thoroughly before posting them haha. idk how i missed that he donked turn... to be fair it was *really* late when i posted this lol

im not sure if this is I_RunlikeGod, i remember he was at this table but i think he has a wider PFR and 3b. but it may have been him lol ill have to check when i get home.

yeah. this flop drills my range. I have pair or better 50% of the time here and he only has pair or better about 25 to 30% of the time and calls some draws another 15% of the time. If youre not cbetting this hand, what are you cbetting? AA Kx and Qx only? my standard here is cbetting all my draws, JJ+, all my Kx, and checking sets, Qx, 8x, 99, and TT to call down and checking my total airballs to fold on the turn. I think this is the most balanced approach, allthough I could probably adjust to cbet more of my value hands like 88 and QQ as an exploit against this particular player. also all of my cbets are about 35 to 42% of pot, I find balance by choosing my cbet sizing based on board textures so if i size all my bluffs the same as my value, then it becomes very polarized and unexploitable. this is the sizing I would use for all my Kx.

i think even hes a nit like this he probably still 3bets QQ+ and AK although we cant really rule those out its unlikely. I think if KQ is going to spaz out hes going to do it OTF instead of call, and donk turn. and i dont think ge spazzes one pair Kx or Qx here. so i think its either going to be 8x exactly or he could be a player that has no idea how to bluff and show up with total garbage like 63o or something lol. so i think when he does bluff here, we'll actually be ahead. but i dont think hes capable of a bluff this way nearly often enough to justify a call.


edit: sorry for typos haha, on my phone
 
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Beanfacekilla

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Yeah i am out of touch with online play for sure.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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The turn is close. We have a 16% chance (5.25:1) to spike a straight, and KK & QQ don't flat preflop. We're getting ~5.75:1 implied + direct odds. There's not a lot of room for profit if he can find a fold or two, but it's not a grave sin if you call and stack all A/9.
 
K

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Looks like a passive player who woke up with a hand on the turn. Having invested so little in the hand so far, I just muck it. Your outs are not necessarily clean here if he has trips 8 like you guessed.
 
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