$50 NLHE Full Ring: 3 barrell bluff lookin good?

CheckraiseLife

CheckraiseLife

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$50 NLHE Full Ring: 3 barrell bluff lookin good?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 12/9/4

Hand sample: 600

I usually pick my spots very carefully with this sort of play I feel its a longterm +EV play, since the intial raiser had I high fold to 3bet and the callers range is so wide and doesnt seem very strong, + my ace blocker I feel its a no brainer to 3bet.

when called the flop seems like a good spot to barrel, I usually decide wether to bet 3 or bet none in these spots, however with the oppenent being tightish and the flop being weak even if he had hit his jack I feel my 3 barrel is going to force him to fold here since a hand like AJ has a hard time calling, queens, could possibly also fold here and his ragish hands will also fold by river shove I feel.

I also pickup equity on the turn.


thoughts?


No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) -

Button ($50)
SB ($51.02)
Hero (BB) ($72.08)
UTG ($72.64)
UTG+1 ($50)
MP1 ($68.05)
MP2 ($32.14)
MP3 ($48.52)
CO ($62.24)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A
club.gif
, 10
spade.gif

5 folds, CO bets $1.50, Button calls $1.50, 1 fold, Hero raises $5.50, 1 fold, Button calls $4.50

Flop: ($13.75) 5
heart.gif
, J
diamond.gif
, 9
club.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $8, Button calls $8

Turn: ($29.75) 8
club.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $14, Button calls $14

River: ($57.75) 9
diamond.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $44.08 (All-In),

Total pot: $57.75
 
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bgomez89

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Looks spewy to me because I doubt he's folding an overpair here.
 
W

watchtowel

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3-barrel bluffs have to be chosen carefully, basically you are risking your' whole stack with ace high so you need a really good read to make it profitable. I think a lot of people will make a crying call on the river with a lot of the hands you mentioned...
 
B

baudib1

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When the initial raiser has a high fold to 3B% yet continues anyway, you should give up at some point when you don't have a hand.
Deciding to bet 3 or none is pretty spewy and just seems random.

Edit: Once again I misread the HH, sorry. I thought the initial raiser had continued. the problem then becomes the fact that the caller seems, well, cally/stationy, so I wouldn't expect him to fold Jx here very often.
 
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dj11

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Villain looks way too tight to have come along for a ride. Unless your numbers are spewy on his HUD. Conveniently we don't have that info.

Your 'story' here looks thin. You raise in the BB and have a 9? Villain will put these pieces together and think..no 9. He might think you hit the jack, but then he's sitting there with the other 2 9's and doesn't care.:cool:

It is reasonable to believe that villain is running a tracker, and has 600 hands on you. What is he seeing? Is he seeing a bet that does not screem 'value' ? If you had a '9' surely you would try to squeeze another bet out of him. No, he see's a rather inappropriate larger than pot sized raise that screams 'stealing'! But again, what are his numbers on you, telling him. A smallish bet on the river seems like it would be scarier than your shove.

I think my comments are valid but this is way over my br.
 
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CheckraiseLife

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these posting limits driving me nuts... lol want to reply to all
HAVE SOME HEART!! - Tony G
firstly I got this play from a drag the bar coach, but not sure if I applied it correctly, was just wonderign what othres opinions was , would have to ask him in a hand history review.
firstly I have a tight 15/12 image, buttons range is HUGE - i'm not repping a nine whatsoever really, although you could make the argument, if he thinks i'm full of it then he really cant put me off any two pair or any 9 neitehr,
bottom of this guys range is a hand like any pairs over 6's, suited connecters maybe like a j10, kqs to top range QQ,AJ,AK
I think against that range, my image and the oppenent its a good play, personally
I'm not doing this all the time i'm not laggy, I think, i'm gettin respect for qq+ here
also I didnt neccearly say i'm betting 3 barrels no matter what, the turn card was kinda of pivotale if it came like a king or an ace i'm probably checking it down, but on that turn I like my chances with back door straight its the best turn card really.
and I expect him to fold on the river at least 70% of the time if I shove so I feel I should fire that last barrel, betetr than just checkign back river and him showing AJ, where he might have folded. thinking on turn 'i'll call one more then i'm done'
That far in - i'm going down with the ship baby!
 
WVHillbilly

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If you think he folds a Jack I think it's fine BUT I doubt he does because people who call 3bets with hands like AJ generally don't fold TPTK.
 
dj11

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You state ;

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 12/9/4

how do you get a huge range from those numbers? Even given that villains range widens, a lot maybe, in position, 'huge' range is a real stretch.

You being at 15/12 suggests a smaller value like bet would have been more convincing. No one is worried on the turn and the turn bet, it is that over the top river bet that makes me (probably us) wonder.
 
CheckraiseLife

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I was thinking he was playing a large range from the button and maybe thought i might have 'been at it' and thought to play a pot with position on me
bottom of this guys range is a hand like any pairs over 6's, suited connecters maybe like a j10, kqs to top range QQ,AJ,AK

against that range he cant call a shove on the river easily even if he has TpTk if anything it looks like i past the test of 'is he at it' when i shove it all in on river, since he would expect me to check back river most times, .

i havnt been laggy so he can only come to one conclusion imo - Fold.

as for why shove river for 20 more, theres $30 in the pot on the turn may aswell go for it, or check back and loose?
 
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WVHillbilly

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He only has 22.50 left on the river. There really shouldn't be that much in his range that he's folding.getting almost 3 to 1.
 
CheckraiseLife

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thats the main problem with the play, i bet to much, i shoulda set it up on the flop and turn where it was a pot in the 20's, not the 30's, bet sizing was a mistake in this play definatley. -
although still a hard call, but thats the best argument against the play for sure. althoguh as for the result he folded, but that doesnt take away from the fact bet sizing was off.
 
WVHillbilly

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Hard to get the bet sizing small enough on the earlier streets in a 3bet pot.
 
Stu_Ungar

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when called the flop seems like a good spot to barrel, I usually decide wether to bet 3 or bet none in these spots, however with the oppenent being tightish and the flop being weak even if he had hit his jack I feel my 3 barrel is going to force him to fold here since a hand like AJ has a hard time calling, queens, could possibly also fold here and his ragish hands will also fold by river shove I feel.

Why would anyone call a 3bet with AJ or QQ only to fold it postflop as TPTK or an overpair?
 
Stu_Ungar

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I was thinking he was playing a large range from the button and maybe thought i might have 'been at it' and thought to play a pot with position on me
bottom of this guys range is a hand like any pairs over 6's, suited connecters maybe like a j10, kqs to top range QQ,AJ,AK

against that range he cant call a shove on the river easily even if he has TpTk if anything it looks like i past the test of 'is he at it' when i shove it all in on river, since he would expect me to check back river most times, .

i havnt been laggy so he can only come to one conclusion imo - Fold.

as for why shove river for 20 more, theres $30 in the pot on the turn may aswell go for it, or check back and loose?

You are just trying to justify a bad play here.

Preflop the BTN dosent have a wide range, he isnt opening the BTN is he? He is calling a bet so we can narrow this down to some hand within his narrow 12/9 range. In fact we can even exclude the bottom of that range.

3bet, seems OK

Postflop

Flop, almost every hand he calls with here either hits or is 2 overcards or an OESD etc. You can cbet

Turn .. when you bet here he folds out everything but strong draws, TPTK and overpirs

River there are more combos of made hands in his range than strong draws that missed. He wont fold QQ or AJ

So 3bet preflop is fine, cbet is thin but ok beyond there you are just spewing money

The villian is tight, when he calls a 3bet he has big BW cards or middle pairs.

When he calls the cbet he had a hand.

People do not fold TPTK or overpairs in a 3bet pot
 
CheckraiseLife

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Still not convinced its bad, i meen against most 12/9's hes 3 betting alot of his aa,kk maybe qq, pre, so when he just calls a bet specialy on button, safe to say we can give him that range I listed earlier.
when i shove the river my stats as a 15/12 how often do you expect a jack to be good here? I think your giving to much respect for a hero call. with a jack + hes a nit, queens i'm lookin back on this and think thats 60/40 call in his favour
anything else i say i'm 70/40 in favour on river shove most times. i meen if ur calling a jack here its gotta be longterm -ev but thats people opinions i guess, will definatley save this one for coaching hand histoy review though, if i get blasted there i know i have to rethink it.
 
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Stu_Ungar

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Still not convinced its bad, i meen against most 12/9's hes 3 betting alot of his aa,kk maybe qq, pre, so when he just calls a bet specialy on button, safe to say we can give him that range.
when i shove the river my stats as a 15/12 how often do you expect a jack to be good here? I think your giving to much respect for a hero call. with a jack + hes a nit, queens i'm lookin back on this and think thats 60/40 call in his favour
anything else i say i'm 70/40 in favour on river shove most times. i meen if ur calling a jack here its gotta be longterm -ev but thats people opinions i guess, will definatley save this one for coaching hand histoy review though, if i get blasted there i know i have to rethink it.


Too any words and not enough ranges.


What do you think he is calling the 3bet with? (list hands)
What do you think he is calling the flop bet with (list hands)
What do you think he is calling the turn bet with? (list hands)
What do you think he:-
a) calls river shove with? (list hands)
b) folds to river shove? (list hands)
 
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Stu_Ungar

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From CRL

hi thanks for the input on my thread really appreciate it, helps me out definatley, seen you on here alot so I know you know your stuff for sure.
Also can you post this for me i've reached my posting cap for the day, and just reply to it, if you can/ want thanks.

What do yo uou think he callin a 3 bet with -
Bottom range 77+ to top end pair JJ QQ, Kjs,AJs,AJ,AQ,AQs,AK,AKs
maybe a suited connecter like J10's 78s, -
so far his folt to 3bet was 0% only in 2 hands mind.
What do you think he is calling the flop bet with:
10js,Kjs,AJ,any pair since its kinda dry so,77,88,99,1010, JJ,QQ

What do you think he is calling the turn bet with

J10s, since he picked up draw,

Kjs,AJ since hes not sure if i'm just double bareling although praying I check back river, and as I would probably think if he shoves river i'm usually toast.

pocket 6's,7's and 10s picked up equity + could be ahead so hes calling there also but knows he cant be good on river show to many times.

What do you think he:- a) calls river shove with?
JJ,88, as played thinking hes calling queens now, however still a 30-40% chance he could make a nitty lay down.
b) folds to river shove?
AJ, he realises he cant be good here most times against my player type and how the hand played I say he fodls 70% of the time.
all his pairs fold 66,77,10,10
10Js,KJs folds
thoughts?
 
Stu_Ungar

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HE has an unknown fold to 3bet but a 12/9 would usually have a high fold to 3bet

The range you give is fine

There are about 100 combos he calls with pre

He calls about 65% so the flop c-bet might not be so good.

The turn he calls about 80% so a turn cbet is not good.

The river he folds about 40% so he calls this bet more than he folds it and when he calls you have 0% equity i.e. you never ever win.

These are based on your ranges and at no point does he fold more than he calls. The only point in the hand where your equity is high enough to combine that equity with fold equity to justify a play is on the flop
 
CheckraiseLife

CheckraiseLife

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best hand analysis on here so far, thanks stu really tore it down to the nuts and bolts.

Do you think theres any value in this play whatsoever in different situations?
If so any example were you would try a play like this? could it be very longterm +EV if correctly applied?
 
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