€50 NLHE 6-max: Would you shove the river?

Thinker_145

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iPoker - €0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 232.22 BB (VPIP: 51.56, PFR: 39.06, 3Bet Preflop: 22.58, hands: 68)
Hero (SB): 108.64 BB
BB: 67.5 BB (VPIP: 46.64, PFR: 25.44, 3Bet Preflop: 9.82, Hands: 295)
UTG: 40 BB (VPIP: 22.64, PFR: 19.61, 3Bet Preflop: 6.83, Hands: 2,167)
CO: 328.8 BB (VPIP: 20.43, PFR: 15.63, 3Bet Preflop: 5.79, Hands: 6,634)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K:spade: T:spade:

fold, fold, BTN raises to 4 BB, Hero calls 3.5 BB, fold

Flop: (9 BB, 2 players) 9:heart: 4:spade: K:diamond:
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: (9 BB, 2 players) 8:diamond:
Hero bets 4.5 BB, BTN raises to 15.74 BB, Hero calls 11.24 BB

River: (40.48 BB, 2 players) T:club:
Hero checks, BTN bets 28.32 BB, Hero ?
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Eh, just call. The straights are totally in your opponent's range, and even if he calls with all his two pair hands, you're still behind:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
660 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 9:heart: 4:spade: K:diamond: 8:diamond: T:spade:
KT, K9, Kx8x, Kx4x, T9, 98, T8, QJ, J7, 88, 6x7x 55.91% (351 wins, 36 ties)
KT 44.09% (273 wins, 36 ties)
 
Aces2w1n

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C9 this opponent is over 50+ vpip.

Could you add Kx single paired hands? Busted flush draws?

JJ QQ? baby pairs?
 
Thinker_145

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Aces2w1n said:
C9 this opponent is over 50+ vpip.

Could you add Kx single paired hands? Busted flush draws?

JJ QQ? baby pairs?
Click to expand...

But is he calling with those hands?

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Aces2w1n

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Look at his stats... surely he would. I know it's not certain but over half his hands played seems fishy to me.

headsup pot. top pair could get awfully sticky against the blinds or do some common mistakes.
 
Thinker_145

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Yes I agree with you I did shove here and was called by 67. For me there was value in shoving this kinda player but I guess it's a rather divided matter.

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H

hffjd2000

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On the turn, when he raised, I suspect my hand is second rate now.

I would surely not continue now on river.

He was very lucky to get his draw runner runner.
 
John A

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Thinker_145 said:
Yes I agree with you I did shove here and was called by 67. For me there was value in shoving this kinda player but I guess it's a rather divided matter.

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Click to expand...

His stats indicate you can make more narrow shoves and raises against him and likely get called fairly wide. The only problem here is what 2 pair does he have that he raises on the turn with? It looks much more like a turned draw (flush or straight) than anything else (and I would have re-popped him - this is where you lost value). I mean K9 or K8 he's betting the flop a ton with correct?98 he's also betting the flop with a 9 a large percentage of the time. So his hand looks much more like back doored straight or air than 2nd best two pair doesn't it?
 
Thinker_145

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John A said:
His stats indicate you can make more narrow shoves and raises against him and likely get called fairly wide. The only problem here is what 2 pair does he have that he raises on the turn with? It looks much more like a turned draw (flush or straight) than anything else (and I would have re-popped him - this is where you lost value). I mean K9 or K8 he's betting the flop a ton with correct?98 he's also betting the flop with a 9 a large percentage of the time. So his hand looks much more like back doored straight or air than 2nd best two pair doesn't it?
Click to expand...
Yes he was playing very much a relentlessly betting game so not betting a monster on the flop is almost never happening. He is also c betting 88 I believe but you never know.

I very much put him on complete air trying to blow me away so I didn't want to shut him down. He could also have hands like 48 and 8T here. And in case he has a marginal hand like TJ you never know this sort of a player might just call in the end.

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IPlay

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It might sound nitty but I would fold the turn because he is cbetting 88% but he chooses to NOT cbet this perfectly dry board that looks like a slam dunk cbet? It is almost like he doesn't want you to fold then he raises turn so I would be pretty suspect here and lay this down and feel good about it. If I did feel like calling I don't think I am shoving river.
 
Thinker_145

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IPlay said:
It might sound nitty but I would fold the turn because he is cbetting 88% but he chooses to NOT cbet this perfectly dry board that looks like a slam dunk cbet? It is almost like he doesn't want you to fold then he raises turn so I would be pretty suspect here and lay this down and feel good about it. If I did feel like calling I don't think I am shoving river.
Click to expand...

No no I meant if he had 88 he is probably c betting it not that he c bets 88%. Now I don't remember it but it was fairly high anyways. But not so high that he won't check with complete air.

You are right about an 88% checking IP is always quite suspicious but that wasn't nearly the case here.

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IPlay

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Thinker_145 said:
No no I meant if he had 88 he is probably c betting it not that he c bets 88%. Now I don't remember it but it was fairly high anyways. But not so high that he won't check with complete air.

You are right about an 88% checking IP is always quite suspicious but that wasn't nearly the case here.

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Click to expand...

Whoops, I tend to browse over replies quickly :)

Since that changes things I would probably call turn raise and just call river too. Shoving river is pretty thin but I don't mind it against this player type. I could see K9, K8, 98, AK checking back this flop since it is bone dry but is this villain thinking that or is he just thinking, I haz pair, I bet! This is the type of spot where I would like to have seen how villain has played some other hands that were kind of similar.
 
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Its a thin shove, that being said I would probably need more information on the villain than the hands you have on him. I think I would call here, a show down monkey, that overvalues hands I would definitely shove on here. Long term given what you know on the opponent I still think a shove is +ev here, that doesn't mean you won't be behind from time to time.
 
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Tough spot. Considering stats of villain he would 3bet PF pretty wide with al PPs and, JQ+. A stat we miss here imo is C-bet.. On the flop (esp. with his check) I think we beat his range by far. On the turn, I would stack off lightly as he is probably drawing for a straight (so we're still far ahead) or a flush and is the kind of maniac who would play this aggressively. Obviously fold all day if this is a decent player but not the case here.
 
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