€50 NLHE 6-max: Would you raise the river?

iPoker - €0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 26.67, PFR: 21.35, 3Bet Preflop: 6.61, hands: 1,967)
UTG: 47.36 BB (VPIP: 27.12, PFR: 22.58, 3Bet Preflop: 7.22, Hands: 3,428)
MP: 113.5 BB (VPIP: 36.59, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 42)
CO: 51.58 BB (VPIP: 20.08, PFR: 16.91, 3Bet Preflop: 6.10, Hands: 486)
Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 75.5 BB (VPIP: 25.51, PFR: 18.05, 3Bet Preflop: 3.92, Hands: 502)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 6:spade: 7:club:

fold, MP calls 1 BB, fold, Hero calls 1 BB, SB calls 0.5 BB, BB checks

Flop: (4 BB, 4 players) 2:club: 5:heart: J:spade:
SB checks, BB checks, MP checks, Hero checks

Turn: (4 BB, 4 players) 8:club:
SB bets 2.64 BB, fold, MP calls 2.64 BB, Hero calls 2.64 BB

River: (11.92 BB, 3 players) 9:heart:
SB bets 13.84 BB, fold, Hero ???

Are you suspicious of the over bet? Can you "just call" this?

It would suck to raise and fold to a shove but if he could be value bet/calling worse you should raise/fold.

btc87 said:

It would suck to raise and fold to a shove but if he could be value bet/calling worse you should raise/fold.

Click to expand...

How can I raise fold really? In fact if I raise here I am pretty much pot committed. The V isn't a full stack..

Sent from my Moto G using Tapatalk

some reads other than hud stats would be helpful here, I mean, you've got 500 hands in with this guy. have you seen him overbet before? how does he play his draws? is that turn lead consistent with how he'd play a draw here or is he the type to check and hope for a free card? I think I'd lean towards a call and break my monitor when he flips over 55

I am not sure that other stats would help you that much here. Maybe a note on an overbet on the river. Is he doing this with something worse than a set like 2 pairs or AJ? If not there are more gutshots of T7 and QT on the turn than sets . I am sure that he is not bluffing there.It would be crazy to bluff such a board OOP on a multiway pot. But you have the worse straight possible there.
I think that you should definitely not reraise. I am not sure if you are good at least ~50% of the time here to justify the call.

I would just call here as it is quite a big sized over bet as there is a small chance villain can have Q10 or 710 and could have just bet the turn with it and got there on the river.

Not only that also because his over bet is against 2 opponents so he has either a strong hand / bluff, therefore we cannot rule out the possibility of him having the nuts.We are making more than enough money in the pot by just calling (unless we have the second best hand) therefore there is no need to raise at this spot.

Unless u peeked into or accidentally saw one of villain's hole cards .. :icon_pira

I forgot to add one thing. I have the V marked as a bad reg he can never lay down big hands. So there is value to be had if I raise.

Sent from my Moto G using Tapatalk

Thinker_145 said:

I forgot to add one thing. I have the V marked as a bad reg he can never lay down big hands. So there is value to be had if I raise.

Click to expand...

So could he have played 710 or Q10 the way he did - of course there is a chance. So there is no need to take that risk you see. The river bet size is 3x pot so i wouldn't recommend raising.

suby_rafael said:

So could he have played 710 or Q10 the way he did - of course there is a chance. So there is no need to take that risk you see. The river bet size is 3x pot so i wouldn't recommend raising.

Click to expand...

Ya he could have but its not 3x pot...

Sent from my Moto G using Tapatalk

Thinker_145 said:

How can I raise fold really? In fact if I raise here I am pretty much pot committed. The V isn't a full stack..

Sent from my Moto G using Tapatalk

Click to expand...

Oh yea my mistake. Then it's fine to just call except if he is fishy to call a raise with 2p/set but these are rare cases anyway.

So I suppose I made a complete blunder on the river. I shoved and he called with QT. I am certainly not gonna crush 50NL with moves like these damn.

Sent from my Moto G using Tapatalk

Surely raise big here! He will not shove bluffing here, so just fold to his shove. But you shall still raise him firstly.

tomnovember said:

Surely raise big here! He will not shove bluffing here, so just fold to his shove. But you shall still raise him firstly.

Click to expand...

Problem is that villan is not a full stack. If we reraise we are pot comited and we have to put the rest of the money in. But reraising is not an option even if he was a full stack. We must be sure he could playing like this with 2 pairs , top pair and bluffs. If he is only doing this with sets and streigths not even a call is profitable IMO.

very weird villain is a 20/16 and limping the CO, maybe misclick on his part, but yeah no reason to re-shove here with the idiot end of the straight..

swingro said:

Problem is that villan is not a full stack. If we reraise we are pot comited and we have to put the rest of the money in. But reraising is not an option even if he was a full stack. We must be sure he could playing like this with 2 pairs , top pair and bluffs. If he is only doing this with sets and streigths not even a call is profitable IMO.

Click to expand...

Why he wouldn't play 2pairs or sets in this way? It is definitely possible!

tomnovember said:

Why he wouldn't play 2pairs or sets in this way? It is definitely possible!

Click to expand...

I did not said that he could not play sets this way. Read again my post.

This is one of the many hands posted here that demonstrate how passive poker makes it harder on oneself to properly range your opponents. It's a good flop to cbet had you raised it up pre. As played I really doubt he calls with enough combinations of hands that don't stack us or chop.