$50 NLHE 6-max: What's Villain's Calling Range? Shoved turn on wet board.

$50 NL HE 6-max: What's Villain's Calling Range? Shoved turn on wet board.

Here's a hand I played recently. However, I won't tell you what my hole cards are. What I want you to do is put villain on a calling range. My actual cards and the results will come later in the thread. You can also put me on a range for extra credit.

Stats on Villain:
22/4/44% over 76 hands
Fold to c-bet = 1 out of 5
Raise c-bet = 2 out of 5


Ultimate Bet, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

CO: $14.98 (30 bb)
Hero (BTN): $79.08 (158.2 bb)
SB: $75.15 (150.3 bb)
BB: $60.83 (121.7 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with an Amex & a Napkin
CO folds, Hero raises to $1.75, SB calls $1.50, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($5.25) 6 7 2 (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $3.50, SB folds, BB raises to $8, Hero calls $4.50

Turn: ($21.25) 9 (2 players)
BB bets $12.50, Hero raises to $69.33 and is all-in

i think you have a legit hand, at minimum, AA with Ac, or something like T8 or small flush, I don't think he is calling because he is FOS a lot here.

What are your stats?

GeoffLacey said:

What are your stats?

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I steal around 45% from the button on average, and my AFq is 39%.

Lol I keep typing stuff then changing my mind... ok well I think dealing with villain's calling range is a little easier than considering your range here. I think he's calling with all his flushes, straights and sets obviously. I don't think he ever has AA/KK here but if he does I think he's calling pretty much always and I think he calls here with QQ pretty often but JJ much less so? Other pairs that don't make sets never call and I think 1010 folds pretty much always. Also I think all his Ac plus pair hands are probably calling

Blehhh I'm still not sure about that lol

Your range seems kinda weird here fwiw. I really like your line actually, almost regardless of your hand

He has a pretty wide range preflop- but I don't see how it would include TT+

On the flop I would think he has only a few hands that are c/r
Mostly sets and 2pair, which I think would probably be weighted towards 2 pair (more combo of it than anything else). There are some flushdraws/straightdraws in there also that just may not like to be played out of position.

On the turn his bet looks a little odd, like "I want to be able to get away from this" kind of a bet. Doesn't change his range, but definitely more 2pair and sets than straights or flushes.
He folds his 2pair and sometimes his sets. Maybe a coinflip if he calls his sets.

I think he folds his big draws here too. So calling range is like 2 pair rarely, sets 50/50, straights often, and flushes always.

I put your range on the turn as lots of combo draws and a few made hands. like Tc9x, Tc8x, or some smaller gappers with clubs. Stealing 45% from the button gives you a lot of stuff but I can't see you doing this with a made nut flush, which is why I would weight it more heavily towards small flushes/straights and semibluffs.

I'm pretty certain villain has a raggy hand or small pocket pair.

baudib1 said:

I'm pretty certain villain has a raggy hand or small pocket pair.

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yah i don't think villain's actual range is that strong, but his calling range is pretty tight, which is the main reason why i like the shove

edit - lol i think that sounds retarded

c9h13no3 said:

Here's a hand I played recently. However, I won't tell you what my hole cards are. What I want you to do is put villain on a calling range. My actual cards and the results will come later in the thread. You can also put me on a range for extra credit.

Stats on Villain:
22/4/44% over 76 hands
Fold to c-bet = 1 out of 5
Raise c-bet = 2 out of 5


Ultimate Bet, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

CO: $14.98 (30 bb)
Hero (BTN): $79.08 (158.2 bb)
SB: $75.15 (150.3 bb)
BB: $60.83 (121.7 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with an Amex & a Napkin
CO folds, Hero raises to $1.75, SB calls $1.50, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($5.25) 6

7

2

(3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $3.50, SB folds, BB raises to $8, Hero calls $4.50

Turn: ($21.25) 9

(2 players)
BB bets $12.50, Hero raises to $69.33 and is all-in

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By way of your description, BB seems like he has some idea of what preflop hand selection means. His preflop range should really include all pairs (heavily discounting QQ+), most broadway combos, most suited connectors, and probably some stuff like T8s too.

What does his flop raise mean? It's going to be flushdraws some of the time, overpairs (88-TT/JJ) and also 98 some of the time. Sets and 76. On average, it's rare to see air being raised on a board like this unless he has a grudge because a lot of his air would just peel a card instead of raising, except for stuff like 33-55. So I think his flop raise is strongish. That it was so small could mean a lot of things, and I'm not really sure I want to guess what. But it's at least pretty rare for people to raise sets small on a draw-heavy board, so we could probably discount them a bit.

Then he bets halfpot on the turn. I think this speaks in favor of 88/98 "protecting" against the flushdraw, but none of his hands can really be discounted completely based on the action, mostly because we don't know him very well.

I think he needs a pretty big hand to call a shove here, sets, 97, straight, flush, maybe something like JcJx on the weaker end. He can probably have in the vicinity of 15 flushcombos, so we're looking at 30-40 combos of hands that will call.

Differently put, if you're bluffing, you need him to have ~80 combos of folds in his range (or whatever it comes out to), which is probably not reasonable to assume that he does.

His calling range in the BB should be any pp, AQs KQs ((A2,3,4,5 sometimes),Js.

what does he raise here with?

All sets can, flushes. I dont have a straight draw in my range unless A5s for a backdoor but i think he'd be doing it mainly for the flush part of that range.

When he bets weak on the turn i discount all flushes and put him on a set.

6,7,2.

You? i don't think you'd jam a made nut hand on the turn so you either have AA 1 club KK 1 club QQ 1 club.

If you had a draw on the flop or a set you should have jammed then when you had better equity and the last bet for the draw, and to charge him more to draw with any draws he had against your set.

i think u have a set.
hero's calling range will be any turned flush and straight. all combo draws with a high club(q+), all sets, pocket 8s, 10s and Js with a club. sometimes 2pairs with 6 of clubs.
my final guess would be you had 22,66 or 77 and villian called with AcTx (second guess 8c8x) and you holded

KardKlub said:

I dont have a straight draw in my range

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Note that SB flatted when the action got to him. This does (should) vastly increase the number of speculative hands he's willing to play, including a lot of suited connectors. I'd play T8s in that spot, so some of the time it has to be in his range, at least.

F Paulsson said:

Note that SB flatted when the action got to him. This does (should) vastly increase the number of speculative hands he's willing to play, including a lot of suited connectors. I'd play T8s in that spot, so some of the time it has to be in his range, at least.

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yes he does, i did know that, but when i started writing i plain forgot. :marchmell lala land.

so flatting the top of his sc range also gives him straight/ flush outs so his range can be so wide here.

id still expect him to be jamming the turn here with draws and betting small his made hands.

What FP said...

But just to reinforce. I only see around 30 (+/- a few) combinations he calls with being deep here that he flatted with preflop. I threw in sets, a few 1 gap sc's and 2 gap sc's, then possibly a few other combos w/ a flush draw where he thinks there's a chance you're bluffing/ he thinks he has the odds to call.

So if you did this as a complete bluff with absolutely no equity I think you would have to get him to fold around 60% of the time. Which I think means you would need to find 75 other combos of his that take this line and fold...which I don't think I can do (that is of course if my math is even right)

So it would make me think that you are making this move a majority of the time as a way to extract value or at least as a semi-bluff w/ decent equity.

...of course I play about 200 hands of 4nl a month, so yeah, I've been wrong before.

Some really good replies here, and some that are way off the mark. A few things I want to highlight:

baudib1 said:

I'm pretty certain villain has a raggy hand or small pocket pair.

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I'm with you here in a big way. By the turn, I've totally weighted his range towards the weaker end of it. Given this player's preflop stats, and his behavior on flops (doesn't give up), and high aggression factor, it seems like villain could have a lot of middle pair & bad draw type hands that want to "see where they are". Everyone always puts the preflop raiser on AK, and this board is somewhat dry.

F Paulsson said:

if you're bluffing, you need him to have ~80 combos of folds

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As usual, you're pretty spot on that I'm asking this to see if my bluff was any good.

If I have no equity when called yeah I need 80 combos, but on a board like this, I almost always have a draw of some sort. And given I think his range is weighted towards the weak end of it, I'm not sure he has all 30 or whatever combos that you claim he has.

Ubercroz said:

Maybe a coinflip if he calls his sets.

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Fish like this never fold sets.

Skidmark said:

i think u have a set.

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I almost never have a set the way this was played. Flop is just way too wet to flat with a set.


Results: I had and I figured against this particular villain's wide flop continuing range, I had enough equity with top pair, and a variety of backdoor draws. My plan was to call, see what the turn brings (the card, his bet size) and act appropriately.

On the turn, I figured I had a super dirty straight draw that had no implied odds, and the turn brought a really scary card. Given his weak bet size, I figured I could blow him off a huge portion of his range on the turn.

And thankfully, villain verified my suspicion that he was check/raising weaker hands than monsters on this flop by folding & showing me the exact same hand I had:

Still not sure if I like it as a bluff. Since villain continues with a crazy wide range on the flop, I'm not sure if he continues with stuff like A7, 88, TT (which I obviously need him to fold to make this bluff good).

Haven't read anything past OP but villain basically never has a set/2-pair here just because of flop bet sizing. I think he can have a flush or a bunch of marginal 1-pair hands or possibly even a weak overpair. He can have 99 here or also a bunch of sets. I don't think 85 is in his range here but he could have T8 that made a straight. So his calling range:

flushes
T8
99
97/96 (likely suited because he'd probably fold 97o/96o)

I think you have a lot of FE so could be doing this with a pretty wide range but you almost always have some type of equity like Acx or 8x with a club obviously you can't have flopped a set or 2-pair either or you would have 3-bet flop so I guess you can have basically the same flushes/99/2-pair with 9 hands he can too as your value hands

c9h13no3 said:

Fish like this never fold sets.

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yeah, I guess that's true. I often give people too much credit for being able to lay down a hand (leak?).

so you dont flat the flop when u have a set because the board is wet but u bluff shove when it gets worse on the turn when u have showdown value?

Skidmark said:

so you dont flat the flop when u have a set because the board is wet but u bluff shove when it gets worse on the turn when u have showdown value?

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Yes.
Because when you have a set on a wet board you want to get your money is as fast as possible before any more bad cards come, flatting is asking for trouble- wouldn't you like to get your money in good rather than when a scare card hits and you don't know where you are?

Flatting looks like your chasing a draw, so when that card hits you can now turn a hand that has questionable showdown value into a solid bluff.

And really who wants to call with a crappy pair crappy kicker when there has been this much action in the hand, if you don't bluff this then you fold. This hand has no business getting to showdown unless he calls the shove, in which case you still have outs.

its more about a cooler card turning rather than a scare card to stop you getting paid off from your set, by a tptk style hand

KardKlub said:

its more about a cooler card turning rather than a scare card to stop you getting paid off from your set, by a tptk style hand

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Actually no. Trying to get people to fold/money in before they outdraw you is how low-level thinkers approach the game. Trying to maximize your value from worse hands or fold out better is how better players think. In most cases when you have the nuts on a wet board you want to figure out how best to maximize your ev against players with a worse hand. It's not about charging draws or making sure they don't outdraw you it's about making them put money into the pot when they are behind. Scare cards make them think they may be behind so are bad for us when we hold very strong hands.

I think you're both saying the same thing.

When a cooler card (probably more accurate than scare I guess, if you figure flushes are small parts of their range) you lose out on all the potential value since they are less likely to pay you off.

Same thing as getting value from worse hands because when that cooler card hits you will have a hard time getting value from those worse hands like KardKlub said since the majority of those worse hands are TPTK and when that flush/straight completes they will settle down.

But you still want to get that money in fast when you have a set on a wet board- because there is a good chance people will put money in with their combo draws AND TP's because they may put YOU on a draw. So, while yes, good players want to get value from worse hands and low level thinkers want to get money in before they are outdrawn the net effect is usually to get as much in as possible as fast as possible with a set on this kind of a board.

Is there any reason to flat when you have set on a wet board?

Ubercroz said:

Is there any reason to flat when you have set on a wet board?

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Well if you have position on an aggressive fish playing a shitload of hands that just LOVES spewing money/bluffing at drawy boards you could make the case for flatting on wet boards.

...and just to edit my previous post. you would need only like 45 or so combos of folds in his range after his turn bet...which is more attractive than 75 of course.

Ubercroz said:

Yes.
Because when you have a set on a wet board you want to get your money is as fast as possible before any more bad cards come, flatting is asking for trouble- wouldn't you like to get your money in good rather than when a scare card hits and you don't know where you are?

Flatting looks like your chasing a draw, so when that card hits you can now turn a hand that has questionable showdown value into a solid bluff.

And really who wants to call with a crappy pair crappy kicker when there has been this much action in the hand, if you don't bluff this then you fold. This hand has no business getting to showdown unless he calls the shove, in which case you still have outs.

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explain me why would you bluff shove a turn that you are not even feeling comfortable playing your set please?

i am not arguing flatting with a set is better than raising, depends, both is ok. What i am argueing is that i cant understand the purpose of bluff shoving the exact turn card that you thought was troubling on the flop with your set and were trying to get as much money as possible.

Skidmark said:

explain me why would you bluff shove a turn that you are not even feeling comfortable playing your set please?

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what?

Obviously a set is pretty good, thats why it raises the flop so that the turn decision is easier (bigger pot makes commitment easier so you have less concern about a bluff).

You bluff shove because he may not have a hand to call with like TP, or 2pair or something. Obviously its not like bluff shoving the turn is the "standard" play but its not exactly rotten either.