$50 NLHE 6-max: To weak to fold?

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imwatcher

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poker stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1508694
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $50.50
BTN: $97.30
SB: $51.50
BB: $13.50
Hero (UTG): $52.75
MP: $56.05

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with Q :heart: K :heart:
Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, BTN calls $1.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($3.75) 4 :club: J :spade: Q :diamond: (2 players)
Hero bets $2.50, BTN calls $2.50

Turn: ($8.75) J :diamond: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($8.75) A :club: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $7, Hero folds


okay so this guy is relatively unknown but seems like a solid reg 24/22 over about 25 hands... when he calls pre I put him on about QJ QK AJ and AQ A10s, and maybe A2-A5s along with all PPs lower than Js.. when he calls the flop I think he is probably doing this with KQ, AQ, 8s-10s AJ (i think he raises sets and draws and might float AJ rather than bluffraise with the gutshot. I checked the turn to allow him to float as I do not think he has enough draws or weaker kings in his range..
So my main question is that I saw his turn check as strong, him putting me on A high or weak PP, is this correct thinking or are delayed floats standard? I was still planning on c/c river but his bet was very close to pot and as I believe he thinks i have aces in my range it really looks like a value bet..

Thanks guys.
 
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baudib1

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I'd b/f $5ish on turn, barring that do the same on river.
 
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imwatcher

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Do you think he calls with lower PPs? I think (although i didnt put this in orig post) he can have KJs as well which he would possibly call, but other than that what hands do we have beat here which he is calling with? obv small sample size but I think a player like that is generally going to be floating so what is wrong with inducing a float?
 
cardriverx

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BTN has something, if he didn't he wouldve bet the turn (unless he has JT).

As played, I would prob fold river, but I agree with Baudib about b/f turn and river.
 
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imwatcher

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Why are we b/f turn? I think he is floating with more which we beat and i doubt we are getting 3 streets from KJ anyway (the one hand we beat which looks good to get value from.
 
NEWTDOG101

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Im probably wrong but.....fold pre
 
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imwatcher

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Lol you sound like tyler.... KQs utg for 6m is pretty standard open
 
TylerN

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except Tyler says it as a joke? wtf

dont fold pre
 
NEWTDOG101

NEWTDOG101

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Lol you sound like tyler.... KQs utg for 6m is pretty standard open
Lol, oh ok I'll take ur word for it, because I was sitting here thinking KQs utg, why? But I gottcha!
 
bgomez89

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Lol you sound like tyler.... KQs utg for 6m is pretty standard open

Lol sick call out.

I like how you played it except I probably would b/f turn. Villain can call with draws and we're also betting to pick up dead money.
 
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baudib1

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you b/f so he doesn't do this with all of his air

1. This flop isn't very good for you, you have underpairs and AK a lot more than top pair +
2. He plays a reasonably wide range and is OTB so he doesn't have to have anything.
3. Checking the river with an A is bad. If you check this river, you should probably be c/f.
 
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imwatcher

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Lol sick call out.

I like how you played it except I probably would b/f turn. Villain can call with draws and we're also betting to pick up dead money.

Does villain also not bet draws? Pascal raised a good point, that as this turn is terrible for my range against his, if he knows im more likely to c/c with hands with showdown value he is also likely to check behind with hands he was originally floating with.

Baub I dont really understand what youre saying
 
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imwatcher

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Actually baub it seems you are supporting my point, if this flop is bad for my range (which I dont think it particularly is terrible) then he would be floating wider..
 
tenbob

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God, people hate folding to c-bets anymore, open is fine for 6max, fold UTG on a FR table.

Flop bet is fine, b/f turn though. If you check this river you have to be checking to fold. (meh your line is terrible weak though, so you might be good sometimes, i still fold though unless ive been drinking)
 
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baudib1

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what bob said.

obviously if he's floating you wide then of course you can bet the turn for value.
 
TylerN

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obviously if he's floating you wide then of course you can bet the turn for value.

if hes floating us wide otf then how can we bet turn for value since hes likely to fold to a double barrel? wouldnt it be better to c/c turn and let him barrel his air hands

im just confused why everyone thinks turn is a b/f when basically nothing calls us that we beat apart from the dead money in which he was floating us with which imo would be better to c/c turn and let him barrel his range that he was floating
 
vanquish

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he's checking back a lot of hands on the turn that we beat and that have equity against us (e.g. T9, AT) and may also call a turn barrel with hands we beat that have virtually no equity against us and want a showdown (e.g. 99)
 
TylerN

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i can see him checking back AT but not T9 since he cant expect to have enough equity so he would need to bet turn for FE which goes along for the other hands he might be floating with like 87s or 55

the only hands that i can come up with for calling turn that we beat are 99 TT QT
 
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baudib1

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You are overthinking this.

Of course we are not going for 3 streets hoping to stack QT or something retarded. But we're not playing against a nit who cold called from the SB, we have TP2K vs. a guy with a wide range; this is a big fat juicy value-bet.

Either b/f turn or, if turn goes check-check, b/f river. The river A is great for your range. Put yourself in villain's shoes and you'll see quickly that BTN should pretty much bomb this river with anything he gets there with against your line, which looks really damn weak.

In general, you should float wide and apply pressure to people who are OOP and like to pot-control. OOP, it makes no sense to worry about what worse he can call with if you think he is floating wide. I mean you are just giving him license to continue floating you on this board with anything.
 
rssurfer54

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Just a quick question. How can he be a 24/22 over 25 hands? Even if it's 30, if he's running 22pfr then if he has vpip 1 more time than he raised pre, he would have a difference of 1/30 = 3% between the two. At 25, the difference would have to be 1/25 = 4%.

Either OP has more hands than that, or the stats and the hand numbers were at different times. This doesn't really affect the analysis, I just want to make sure I'm not insane.
 
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imwatcher

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lol it was around 25 hands when i checked.... idk pt33 does wierd stuff sometimes
 
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