$50 NLHE 6-max: Villains stats are over a 400 hand sample. 4 handed play.

The Messiah

The Messiah

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 22/20/4.56

This is a hand I played recently, I have my own opinion on it but wont say my thoughts until I hear some feedback from ye guys..
Sent off a bunch of HHs to my coach were I got a reply just now and this is the one were ive found most interesting..
Thoughts on every street?



iPoker - $0.50 NL - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BB: $54.02
UTG: $19.00
BTN: $47.50
Hero (SB): $81.00

Hero posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero has 8:diamond: 9:diamond:

fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.00, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($2.00, 2 players) 2:diamond: Q:diamond: K:club:
Hero bets $1.00, BB raises to $3.75, Hero calls $2.75

Turn: ($9.50, 2 players) T:diamond:
Hero bets $6.00, BB raises to $14.00, Hero calls $8.00

River: ($37.50, 2 players) 5:spade:
Hero checks, BB bets $35.27, Hero .?.
 
bgomez89

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I'd probably try to get it in on the turn but river seems like a no brainer call(or shove whichever is all in)
 
OMGITSOVER9K

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standard cc response: 'we have flush, call'

sigh.
 
JusSumguy

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Feels more like he's playing a big straight.

His small raise on the flop seems like he's drawing. The big bet on the turn means he either hit a FL, or Broadway. I say Broadway, and with only 3 diamonds on board he's gotta bet big to put you off the river FL draw. If he had the big Fl he would have value bet.

I dunno... but I think he has AJo. I'm pushing.

-
 
duggs

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i dont know your overall strategy but i dont generally minraise BVB this deep.
flop seems std and i like leading turn.
I cant figure out many hands he would raise turn that arent air with the Ad or nut flushes.
I actually think folding is kinda exploitative since he should be unbalanced but its hard to say.
 
acky100

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Folding river

shoving river is dumb, call or fold.

although would be nice to know how well he defends bvb and any history between you both?
 
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Ducky7

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Folding river

shoving river is dumb, call or fold.

although would be nice to know how well he defends bvb and any history between you both?

We are not folding this river ever Acky :) :stupid: its BvB hes pretty likely to spew on this kind of board thinking he can blow you off everything
 
youregoodmate

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I think Ill probably be corrected but I like folding the flop.
 
OMGITSOVER9K

OMGITSOVER9K

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how? its not a snap fold but its not a snap call..

what does he raises the flop with, sets + draws.

draw gets there on turn and we lead and he still raises us, he doesn't have AJo raising that turn.. its either a flush or air here imo and since most of his flushes beat us, its how often he's bluffing here with this line (raise flop, raise turn, pot river)

I wanna fold but hey, I'm a nit.. I might be wrong but I think our hands a bluffcatcher at this point.
 
acky100

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ill give you 2:1 that he didnt have Kxdd :)
 
JCgrind

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It is a bluff catcher but he's bluffing here a lot IMO.
This is so got damn read dependent and we don't have any reads.

Personally, I hate leading the turn since this is much more likely to make him play face up and completely kill the vast majority of his bluff range (which BvB vs a min open pre and half pot flop bet should be pretty damn huge). I'd rather check/call turn.

Is 4.5 his 3b or aggression stat? I doubt he had that many nut flushes, or sets here since I'd assume those high PPs and suited aces would be 3bing you pre most of the time if villain is decent. AJo makes sense to flat though i think (then again, probably not vs your SB opening range). I don't think a nut flush would raise the turn here either.... Seems to me like he's either decided to bluff the flop, got pissed when you donk turn so stabs again and then is desperately trying to make tou fold river, OR he's just value betting the worst hand.

Yeah I just can't see him Rollin the nuts here, and thats what he's repping. I call.

Also lol @ bgomez wanting to 3b shove the turn. Talk about completely value****ing yourself. Worst line ever
 
The Messiah

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It is a bluff catcher but he's bluffing here a lot IMO.
This is so got damn read dependent and we don't have any reads.

Personally, I hate leading the turn since this is much more likely to make him play face up and completely kill the vast majority of his bluff range (which BvB vs a min open pre and half pot flop bet should be pretty damn huge). I'd rather check/call turn.

Is 4.5 his 3b or aggression stat? I doubt he had that many nut flushes, or sets here since I'd assume those high PPs and suited aces would be 3bing you pre most of the time if villain is decent. AJo makes sense to flat though i think (then again, probably not vs your SB opening range). I don't think a nut flush would raise the turn here either.... Seems to me like he's either decided to bluff the flop, got pissed when you donk turn so stabs again and then is desperately trying to make tou fold river, OR he's just value betting the worst hand.

Yeah I just can't see him Rollin the nuts here, and thats what he's repping. I call.

Also lol @ bgomez wanting to 3b shove the turn. Talk about completely value****ing yourself. Worst line ever

Its his agg stat, his 3 bet % is 16 fwiw.
 
JCgrind

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he has Kxdd

This does make sense I think.
I just have a hard time believing he would pot the river for value. I feel much more like he has a hand with SD value which is more profitably turned into a bluff
 
JCgrind

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god dammit i thought it was his 3bet %.

the fact that hes actually 3bing 16% though convinces me that we have the nuts here every time.

with my new found knowledge ive gone from 'tank a bit and decide that its a call' to 'snap off and fistpump'.

i dont understand how he can have a flush here ever with a 2% flatting range. j9 is like the only flush hand that makes any kind of sense to me, but im still umming and arring as to whether that 3bs us or not. im leaning towards that it probably would. ahh this is fun
 
acky100

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why would J9s 3bet us and why would he only flat 2%?

16% 3bet makes me think he is a bit more capable of being aggro in spots where a lot of people wouldn't, but im still folding
 
acky100

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3betting sucks cause we only get called by better flushes
 
JCgrind

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why would J9s 3bet us and why would he only flat 2%?

16% 3bet makes me think he is a bit more capable of being aggro in spots where a lot of people wouldn't, but im still folding

bc with a 3b stat that high im assuming hes 3bing pretty much any hand that he wants to play BvB, since over 400 hands he barely has a flatting range (22/20). nto at all saying its ideal, just tryign to work villain out. i just dont get what kind of hands hed be flatting in that spot, since he 3bs so often?


yah you only ever get called by better when you 3b ship. but flatting turn and checking to him on the river will put him in a spot where he still has to valuebet 2p+ hands, so we max out value when were ahead
 
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The Messiah

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I'd probably try to get it in on the turn but river seems like a no brainer call(or shove whichever is all in)

Il get back to this later, keep faith, it aint as bad as one might think...

i dont know your overall strategy but i dont generally minraise BVB this deep.
flop seems std and i like leading turn.
I cant figure out many hands he would raise turn that arent air with the Ad or nut flushes.
I actually think folding is kinda exploitative since he should be unbalanced but its hard to say.

I tend to min raise especially the shorter we are as villains 3 bet% should increase now that we are 4 handed, as its a villain with a 16% 3 bet in the bb its even more important to just min raise as im never folding 89dd to a 3 bet and by min raising im keeping his 3 bet smaller meaning a lower SPR which will suit my hand as its one of great implied odds.

Folding river

shoving river is dumb, call or fold.

although would be nice to know how well he defends bvb and any history between you both?

Not sure if you've seen my cash tread but this is the same villain were I can profitably play ATC against in 3 bet pots, as his tendencies stay the same with his strong/weak hands meaning reads are solid, but 4 handed play, reads like this go out the door imo..
So not really sure if he has a perception of me as someone who is just lucky against him, or if he is finally realizing that ive been exploiting him and is getting pissed off...
Im assuming he starts to defend his blinds more not that we are 4 handed, not sure that means he opens up his 3 bet % even more or just starts flatting and playing me in pos.


how? its not a snap fold but its not a snap call..

what does he raises the flop with, sets + draws.

draw gets there on turn and we lead and he still raises us, he doesn't have AJo raising that turn.. its either a flush or air here imo and since most of his flushes beat us, its how often he's bluffing here with this line (raise flop, raise turn, pot river)

I wanna fold but hey, I'm a nit.. I might be wrong but I think our hands a bluffcatcher at this point.

Yes, our hand at this stage is a bluff catcher.. We beat nothing he value shoves with on this river.

Messiah, sort your bet sizing out!

Im too lazy to type in my bet size on streets, but I really must sort it out, table ninja I guess...

3betting sucks cause we only get called by better flushes

Debatable!



Right, so my overall thoughts on the hand;
Ive explained pre in 'duggs' post,

Flop; Bet sizing should be more, lk 70% but thats not something im that worried about as its laziness rather than lack of knowledge. When I get raised on the flop, I think flatting here is pretty standard especially against an agg villain were ive loads of 'hidden' equity.

Turn; I decide to donk the turn which is something I almost never do, lk seriously, I dont think I ever do it which is prob a leak but anyway...because if hes got a value hand like a set/2pair I think hes going to check back this turn a lot and then go into c/c mode on river were I think I lose a lot of value, were if I donk turn/river I dont think he will ever fold a value hand lk the above.Also donking here isnt a bad thing against an agg reg as he might actually continue his bluffs more now than he would of if I just checked to the initial raiser.
When he puts in his raise on turn I narrow his range significantly to total air, maybe some b/d nut draws or a better flush, he rarely has worse flush type hands here.
Now, I made the decision to just flat turn with the intention to c/c river, this way I would be getting max value from his continuing bluffing range and losing very little if not none from his value range as its now almost non existent bar his flushes.

River; He almost pot jams and I sigh call, knowing im only beating a bluff.

Will post my coaches response once I get some feedback from my initial thought process, yes it has changed..
 
acky100

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bc with a 3b stat that high im assuming hes 3bing pretty much any hand that he wants to play BvB, since over 400 hands he barely has a flatting range (22/20). nto at all saying its ideal, just tryign to work villain out. i just dont get what kind of hands hed be flatting in that spot, since he 3bs so often?



yah you only ever get called by better when you 3b ship. but flatting turn and checking to him on the river will put him in a spot where he still has to valuebet 2p+ hands, so we max out value when were ahead


JC, 22/20 is pretty much irrelevant to how much he is flatting here. My pfr gap is only 2-3 points also but i am flatting between 30-40% hands here usually. J9s is a perfect hand to flat here and 3betting it would be pretty terrible as an overall game plan. Just stop using vpip pfr to judge how often someone calls in these spots i guess im saying cause its gonna be **** loads from the truth
 
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theres nothing u can do u called the raise u hit and hes more likely overplaying a set or straight.call and pray.i think calling the raise on the flop is not the best as u have nothing else to go on with and not great implied unless the opponent is a pure donk.oop is not the best place to call raises and hitting on the turn is just a turn of events he could barrel again with air. calling the river is standard since u completed your hand and i hope u won the hand(i think u did).im looking forward for the outcome!
 
JCgrind

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JC, 22/20 is pretty much irrelevant to how much he is flatting here. My pfr gap is only 2-3 points also but i am flatting between 30-40% hands here usually. J9s is a perfect hand to flat here and 3betting it would be pretty terrible as an overall game plan. Just stop using vpip pfr to judge how often someone calls in these spots i guess im saying cause its gonna be **** loads from the truth

when i said that, i for some stupid reason assumed that all 400 hands were from 4 handed play, in which case it would be a pretty direct indication. but yeah... lol at me. my bad
 
The Messiah

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Im assuming my reasoning was pretty solid and my play overall was sound(ish), considering I didnt get any, "lol, u donk" comments....

My reasoning has changed though as ive said in my last post and I think for the better, put me in a similar situation and im 'reluctantly' finding the fold button ..

Basically my coach said that this is a fold, I raised PF,b/c flop and b/c.. Its pretty obvious from whatever side you look at, considering action, ive obviously got some sort of a hand...Considering this board texture there are a tonne of 'somethings' to have, meaning my donk turn isnt as weak as I first thought it looked.
Also, villain never has complete air given the board and action, id expect him to check back the river with his s/d hands that he doesnt feel are good enough to value bet/shove, lk 2 pair/sets etc....
In fact, shoving the turn over his raise would in fact be better than the flat, c/c river for this reason, because he might stack off his KT/set or whatever and it would seem unlikely in his point of view for me to jam such a nutty hand which leads to a lighter call off were if I flat as I said,being oop im just going to get value shoved by better and checked back by worse.The coach did say that he isnt exactly advocating the turn shove but hes just saying its better than flatting turn and c/c river.

Villain flipped K5dd. Nice hand sir!!
gg vanquish!
 
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