I'd probably try to get it in on the turn but river seems like a no brainer call(or shove whichever is all in)
Il get back to this later, keep faith, it aint as bad as one might think...
i dont know your overall strategy but i dont generally minraise BVB this deep.
flop seems std and i like leading turn.
I cant figure out many hands he would raise turn that arent air with the Ad or nut flushes.
I actually think folding is kinda exploitative since he should be unbalanced but its hard to say.
I tend to min raise especially the shorter we are as villains 3 bet% should increase now that we are 4 handed, as its a villain with a 16% 3 bet in the bb its even more important to just min raise as im never folding 89dd to a 3 bet and by min raising im keeping his 3 bet smaller meaning a lower SPR which will suit my hand as its one of great implied
odds.
Folding river
shoving river is dumb, call or fold.
although would be nice to know how well he defends bvb and any history between you both?
Not sure if you've seen my cash tread but this is the same villain were I can profitably play ATC against in 3 bet pots, as his tendencies stay the same with his strong/weak hands meaning reads are solid, but 4 handed play, reads like this go out the door imo..
So not really sure if he has a perception of me as someone who is just lucky against him, or if he is finally realizing that ive been exploiting him and is getting pissed off...
Im assuming he starts to defend his blinds more not that we are 4 handed, not sure that means he opens up his 3 bet % even more or just starts flatting and playing me in pos.
how? its not a snap fold but its not a snap call..
what does he raises the flop with, sets + draws.
draw gets there on turn and we lead and he still raises us, he doesn't have AJo raising that turn.. its either a flush or air here imo and since most of his flushes beat us, its how often he's bluffing here with this line (raise flop, raise turn, pot river)
I wanna fold but hey, I'm a nit.. I might be wrong but I think our hands a bluffcatcher at this point.
Yes, our hand at this stage is a bluff catcher.. We beat nothing he value shoves with on this river.
Messiah, sort your bet sizing out!
Im too lazy to type in my bet size on streets, but I really must sort it out, table ninja I guess...
3betting sucks cause we only get called by better flushes
Debatable!
Right, so my overall thoughts on the hand;
Ive explained pre in 'duggs' post,
Flop; Bet sizing should be more, lk 70% but thats not something im that worried about as its laziness rather than lack of knowledge. When I get raised on the flop, I think flatting here is pretty standard especially against an agg villain were ive loads of 'hidden'
equity.
Turn; I decide to donk the turn which is something I almost never do, lk seriously, I dont think I ever do it which is prob a leak but anyway...because if hes got a value hand like a set/2pair I think hes going to check back this turn a lot and then go into c/c mode on river were I think I lose a lot of value, were if I donk turn/river I dont think he will ever fold a value hand lk the above.Also donking here isnt a bad thing against an agg reg as he might actually continue his bluffs more now than he would of if I just checked to the initial raiser.
When he puts in his raise on turn I narrow his range significantly to total air, maybe some b/d nut draws or a better flush, he rarely has worse flush type hands here.
Now, I made the decision to just flat turn with the intention to c/c river, this way I would be getting max value from his continuing bluffing range and losing very little if not none from his value range as its now almost non existent bar his flushes.
River; He almost pot jams and I sigh call, knowing im only beating a bluff.
Will post my coaches response once I get some feedback from my initial thought process, yes it has changed..