€50 NLHE 6-max: Very deep river decision.

Thinker_145

Thinker_145

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What do we do on the river?

iPoker - €0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (MP): 319.36 BB
CO: 101.3 BB (VPIP: 19.47, PFR: 15.20, 3Bet Preflop: 7.74, hands: 383)
BTN: 99.3 BB (VPIP: 32.20, PFR: 23.73, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 63)
SB: 112.54 BB (VPIP: 21.87, PFR: 14.62, 3Bet Preflop: 5.71, Hands: 971)
BB: 464.32 BB (VPIP: 27.18, PFR: 21.62, 3Bet Preflop: 5.92, Hands: 951)
UTG: 134.74 BB (VPIP: 27.12, PFR: 21.07, 3Bet Preflop: 10.18, Hands: 420)

6 players post ante of 0.2 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.7 BB) Hero has K:club: T:club:

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (7.7 BB, 2 players) T:heart: 5:diamond: 2:club:
BB checks, Hero bets 5.38 BB, BB calls 5.38 BB

Turn: (18.46 BB, 2 players) K:spade:
BB bets 13 BB, Hero raises to 40.22 BB, BB calls 27.22 BB

River: (98.9 BB, 2 players) J:spade:
BB checks, Hero checks

Do you think it was cowardice to check the river or the deep stacks justify it? I can't fold this hand and just couldn't risk a check raise. I couldn't really figure out what I am beating to justify a big raise. The V is a very good player.
 
youregoodmate

youregoodmate

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Personally I am bet/folding the river. I think there is still more value to be had. A set likely raises the turn, with stacks so deep they would want to build the pot asap, so I think we are almost always good here.

I would make it about 55BB OTR.

If villain is as good as you say then I'm not sure I like raising the turn. The only non-value hand we would raise the turn with is QJ (maybe some funky gutters, AQ/AJ), so I doubt he will call with much worse knowing that.

Don't be afraid to go for value because he may check/raise. If he does we are always always beat and can easily fold. Thin value bets can really define a winrate so we should give players the opportunity to make a mistake.
 
Thinker_145

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The turn donk is such a strange move I am thinking a set would check raise me. I very much like my hand on the turn but when he calls I have no idea what he could have apart from also having KT. KQ, KJ and QJ should be folding after my turn raise. 22 and 55 should be 3 betting the turn.

Which hand do you think I am beating for a 55BB raise OTR? Because of my turn raise he is almost never putting me on a bluff.

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youregoodmate

youregoodmate

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I think Kx is maybe the only hand. We rarely get calls but I think we are good so often here that we should bet and give him the chance to call. We can go smaller than 55bb, I just picked that so we don't get bluff raised often.

Yeah you pretty much described in your post there why we shouldn't raise the turn. It's hard for him to call with worse.
 
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tomnovember

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Bet fold the river may be a bit better.
 
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hffjd2000

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I would rather bet call the river.
 
Thinker_145

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I can't put him on AQ or KJ so it would have been very difficult to fold a river 2 bet. And yes I won't want to bet less than 50% pot because I don't want to induce a bluff in this situation.
 
Marcwantstowin

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I think he would have raised you on the flop if it helped his hand, therefore, I would put him on Kx perhaps even AK o/s. I think that he was worried about your holding as you re-raised him on turn. He may even have thought you had trips?

Anyway good play would have been 33% pot bet on river then if he raises you fold. What was the outcome of the hand? Who won it? Very interested to know.

Thanks Marc
 
youregoodmate

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AKo? He seems like a reg so I wouldn't put that in his range. Hes not a fish.
 
Thinker_145

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The result is quite shocking. I almost celebrated it like I had won a big pot because I just escaped disaster. Money saved is money won.

The V showed 55 and I was left baffled as to why he played it the way he did?

It is true that KTs is like the absolute bottom of my MP open range and I may not even do it if I have lags on my left.

So when I raise the turn it does bring an interesting question from the V's perspective as to what I have. Would I raise the turn with AA and AK? Definitely not with the latter and with this deep stacks most probably not with AA either. I might actually try to steal the pot with QJ in this spot.

If he tried to trap me then that's just terrible play since my raise shows serious strength and I am never ever folding a turn 3 bet. Its still quite difficult to fold the river but maybe I could have folded a full pot bet.

However I think he wasn't trapping me but put me on 22, TT or KK. In my opinion that's being way too passive and negative.

If the villain check raises the turn and bets the river he would have won a massive hand. In fact it would require discipline from my side not to 3 bet because the turn card almost feels like the nuts.

Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk
 
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tomnovember

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Thinker_145 said:
The result is quite shocking. I almost celebrated it like I had won a big pot because I just escaped disaster. Money saved is money won.

The V showed 55 and I was left baffled as to why he played it the way he did?

It is true that KTs is like the absolute bottom of my MP open range and I may not even do it if I have lags on my left.

So when I raise the turn it does bring an interesting question from the V's perspective as to what I have. Would I raise the turn with AA and AK? Definitely not with the latter and with this deep stacks most probably not with AA either. I might actually try to steal the pot with QJ in this spot.

If he tried to trap me then that's just terrible play since my raise shows serious strength and I am never ever folding a turn 3 bet. Its still quite difficult to fold the river but maybe I could have folded a full pot bet.

However I think he wasn't trapping me but put me on 22, TT or KK. In my opinion that's being way too passive and negative.

If the villain check raises the turn and bets the river he would have won a massive hand. In fact it would require discipline from my side not to 3 bet because the turn card almost feels like the nuts.

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Click to expand...

Slow playing set in such a way. While I still suggest you to bet/fold the river.
 
JCgrind

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very much doubt your villain will c/r a river as a bluff 300bb deep. thats suicide bet fold river all day
 
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DunningKruger

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Thinker_145 said:
However I think he wasn't trapping me but put me on 22, TT or KK. In my opinion that's being way too passive and negative.
Click to expand...

Just based on your comments here, save for exactly 2 combinations of KTs (which just barely makes it into your opening range from this position) isn't this precisely what you have? Sets? Some possible bluffs perhaps that he was probably accounting for? I was going to post in this topic to ask what you feel about villain's play in this hand and more specifically whether you believe his river check was with the intention of calling or raising instead, but after reading through all of it I feel like I pretty much know your thoughts on those things.
 
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