$50 NLHE 6-max: Value on the river with TP, how much?

Villain is 38/15/2, donkbet%=22, over 200 hands. He's only playing on 1 table and does not auto top up.

poker stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 3 players

SB: $39.36
Hero (BB): $54.95
BTN: $28.79

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with 9 A
1 fold, SB calls $0.25, Hero raises to $2, SB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.00) A J T (2 players)
SB bets $1.50, Hero raises to $4.50, SB calls $3

Turn: ($13.00) 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $8.50, SB calls $8.50

River: ($30.00) 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero ...

Pot is 30 and there's 24 behind.

How close is this spot, or is it always an auto-bet ainec etc.?

In terms of ranges, he can be calling the flop raise and turn bet with a wide range of pairs/draws (he donked the flop afterall - although I do have a blocker to 89 which might help when the river comes a 7), but he also calls with all aces (obv) and I have most if not all of those beat unless they are now 2P (he probably doesn't limp pre with AQ right). The turn also brings in a backdoor FD, which bricks on the river.

Is he calling a shove with worse? Probably not. So do we just bet small enough so he can make a call with a second best hand? If so, how much?

Arran's not allowed to respond because he was sweating me when this hand went down

I shove.
You should know whether your comfortable getting this in or not by the time you make your flop raise.

AJ/KQ/TT/JJ/AA are all heavily negated due to his limp. KJ/QJ/KT/QT are defo still around thanks to their gutshot and A8-A3 are all pretty likely seeing as villains fishy.
It is thin as there is a lot that beats us and sometimes the hands I listed above will fold whilst better hands never do.

This is what I have his range as after negations (removed all Tx and Jx to account for his folds and removed KQ/TT/JJ/AA but left in AT/AJ to account for his open limp).

______________________________________________________________
Board: Ah Js Td 2d 7s

Hand 0: 45.570% { AJs-A2s, JTs, AJo-A2o, JTo }
Hand 1: 54.430% { Ac9h }

Deco said:

I shove.
You should know whether your comfortable getting this in or not by the time you make your flop raise.

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At that moment (on the flop) I was raising because he donks a fair bit, so I am getting value from all his one pair/pocket pair hands, plus draws, and even a couple of Ax hands. His call on the turn might narrow things down a little. We can't know on the flop when I raise whether or not I am stacking off surely. Have you never raise/folded for value?

Deco said:

It is thin as there is a lot that beats us and sometimes the hands I listed above will fold whilst better hands never do.

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That was pretty much my thought at the time. But you still shove? No smaller bets to get looked up by entire range?

* it's funny, because his actual holding isn't in your range. Seems as though he was a bigger donk than we might have first imagined.

Oh hold up, your post changed while I was replying... uh oh, this could get confusing

Cafeman31 said:

Oh hold up, your post changed while I was replying... uh oh, this could get confusing

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I just changed the stoving. I thought removing Tx from villains range was far too liberal so removed Jx as well.

OK, your edit appears to have narrowed his range even further. IMO, his range for donk/calling and then calling turn is way wider.

Cafeman31 said:

We can't know on the flop when I raise whether or not I am stacking off surely. Have you never raise/folded for value?

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When we make a plan for the hand we take into account all (well nearly all) possibilities.

If I raise here it is with the intent to stack villain if the board continues to brick and villain does not show a lot of strength (3betting flop or donk potting the turn).

That's an interesting hand.

It's close but I would check this back not wanting to commit myself with a medium strength made hand. Even though he a likely station I start to wonder whether he really is calling your bets with pair + gutshot type hands.

Seen Deco's response since looking at this and 65% sounds great on paper until you take into account that a lot of that range isn't calling a shove.

Cafeman31 said:

OK, your edit appears to have narrowed his range even further. IMO, his range for donk/calling and then calling turn is way wider.

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I assume as you refer to what he would have on the turn you are taking in to account my negations when you say my range is too narrow. If this is the case we're looking even more +EV.

Cafeman31 said:

That was pretty much my thought at the time. But you still shove? No smaller bets to get looked up by entire range?

* it's funny, because his actual holding isn't in your range. Seems as though he was a bigger donk than we might have first imagined.

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I don't mind this but say we're betting $12 were going to need around double the calls (Give or take seeing as whether we bet/call or bet/fold will alter this somewhat). I also think if the range I provided goes in any direction it will be towards more hands we beat. The original stoving of 65% is a very liberal possibility and this one is somewhat conservative.

Cafeman31 said:

* it's funny, because his actual holding isn't in your range. Seems as though he was a bigger donk than we might have first imagined.

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Bare in mind when I say I am removing something to negate a range it is merely for negtaion purposes.

I think {AA/KQ/JJ/TT/AJ} are more than likely being raised by someone with a 15% PFR BvB. I want to negate it so poker stove only gives this range ~33% probability so I remove everything but AJ. This doesn't mean I think TT will never appear and AJ always will it means I think the range stated will appear only 33% of the time.

micromachine said:

Seen Deco's response since looking at this and 65% sounds great on paper until you take into account that a lot of that range isn't calling a shove.

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Deco said:

I just changed the stoving. I thought removing Tx from villains range was far too liberal so removed Jx as well.

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Agreed. I changed it immediatly after posting but it appears it's either only changed on my screen or I've ninja'd the entire thread

In curious about this hand. What did you do? What did he have?

micromachine said:

In curious about this hand.

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Yes, I know what you mean, it's been on my mind quite a bit. We find ourselves in these spots quite often.

micromachine said:

What did you do?

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I played it badly (read weakreggy ) and checked it back. At the time I was sweating and probably not spending as much time as I should have been on decisions. Ah well. In all honesty I was probably also tilting a bit because I'd spent most of the morning value owning myself (or at least that's the way it felt).

micromachine said:

What did he have?

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J9o.

Cafeman31 said:

I played it badly (read weakreggy ) and checked it back.

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I would have done the same lol weakregs itt

Cafeman31 said:

J9o.

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Fishy

Gotta listen to jesus before clicking them buttons

Is there any reason for/against a small value bet. Like 10 into $30? Small value bet probably keeps middle pairs in the hand. Are you worried about getting check-shipped on? When if ever is it appropriate to make tiny river bets?

CaptainKout said:

Is there any reason for/against a small value bet. Like 10 into $30? Small value bet probably keeps middle pairs in the hand. Are you worried about getting check-shipped on? When if ever is it appropriate to make tiny river bets?

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Yes, that's what I was wondering too. The question for me is, how much should we bet to get called by the entire range that gets this far. Shoving isn't getting called by a J too often imo. I should work this out.

For example, if we figure we have the best hand and then bet 10 and get called 100% of the time, it's worse than if we bet 24 (ship) and only get called 50% of the time (in the first case the EV on that bet is 10 and the second one is 12). Obviously that simple analysis doesn't include the times he ships and we call/fold, or he calls with better etc.

MAYBE(!) after the dust settles on all the possible ranges and calcs we find that there's not much between betting 10 (for example) or shipping. I must find the time to do it though, as it's an interesting spot imo.