$50 NLHE 6-max: Value on the river with TP, how much?
Villain is 38/15/2, donkbet%=22, over 200 hands. He's only playing on 1 table and does not auto top up.
Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 3 players
Hero (BB): $54.95
($0.75) Hero is BB with 9
, SB calls $0.25, Hero raises to $2
, SB calls $1.50
T (2 players)
SB bets $1.50
, Hero raises to $4.50
, SB calls $3
($13.00) 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $8.50
, SB calls $8.50
($30.00) 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero ...
Pot is 30 and there's 24 behind.
How close is this spot, or is it always an auto-bet ainec etc.?
In terms of ranges, he can be calling the flop raise and turn bet with a wide range of pairs/draws (he donked the flop afterall - although I do have a blocker to 89 which might help when the river comes a 7), but he also calls with all aces (obv) and I have most if not all of those beat unless they are now 2P (he probably doesn't limp pre with AQ right). The turn also brings in a backdoor FD, which bricks on the river.
Is he calling a shove with worse? Probably not. So do we just bet small enough so he can make a call with a second best hand? If so, how much?
Arran's not allowed to respond because he was sweating me when this hand went down