$50 NLHE 6-max: Turned draw line?

ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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$50 NL HE 6-max: Turned draw line?

Villain seems like a bad tag to me. It's early in the session so not many reads though.

There was one big pot where I overbet double barreled on a flush card, he called with 2pair, and I bluffed a 4-flush river with a baby flush, he looked me up.

PF is iffy of course, but he's been opening up with minraises and he seemed like the type to give up easily without a hand, so I start to apply the pressure with a hand I can't quite call oop. Could easily be a fold though I guess.

Thoughts on turn? Bet/fold? CRAI? Maybe overbet-call given our history?

party poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 2 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

Hero (BB): $75.80 (151.6 bb)
SB: $61.65 (123.3 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with 2 4
SB raises to $1, Hero raises to $4.50, SB calls $3.50

Flop: ($9) 5 J 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $5, SB calls $5

Turn: ($19) Q (2 players)
Hero ...
 
zachvac

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I bet/fold turn and check/fold river if you miss and cry when he shows you red KT. If he calls turn and you hit vbet obv, and from the description consider overbetting.
 
Deco

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double barrel this.
tbh the draws merely a bonus I'd barrel a queen that weren't giving us m0ore draws here, on top of this we had a straight draw anyway which again I'd barrel with absolutly no draws here anyway.
 
ChuckTs

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ok but what about bet sizing? Do we bet as small as we can to still have (significant) FE or do we bet big enough to commit ourselves should he shove?
 
zachvac

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I bet like 14-15 and as I said fold to shove.
 
zachvac

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Arent we priced in if we bet /fold 15?, assuming we have ~30% equity

Yeah you're right doing the math, in that case I guess I just bet/call. I just saw they were deep and assumed we weren't priced in with a bet. I still think the $15 bet is the most optimal though. Whether we're priced in and it's a bet/call or bet/fold is simply a matter of math and really shouldn't have an impact on our decision of bet sizing.
 
skoldpadda

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If you're committing yourself to the pot by betting the turn as such, would it be better to check and try to take the free card or consider a shove on the turn? I'd think it'd be hard for villain to call a shove. Increases the variance a bit, but versus a more timid opponent you can probably push him off a lot of hands. It should have more fold equity than a CRAI I believe.
 
F Paulsson

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I bet about half-pot (let's say $8) with the intention of shoving over a raise or folding to a shove. If he makes a regularly sized raise, we can very profitably shove. If he shoves, we can have an easy fold. Our equity is about 30% versus almost any two cards, including top set.

I don't like checking, because we're only 30% to win, but this brings me to something I've been meaning to post about, and just did:

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-games-11/fire-2nd-barrel-nut-draw-154728/#post1217493

We talked about this the other day and it didn't occur to me that perhaps I should still reply to it, but there you have it.
 
zachvac

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I bet about half-pot (let's say $8) with the intention of shoving over a raise or folding to a shove. If he makes a regularly sized raise, we can very profitably shove. If he shoves, we can have an easy fold. Our equity is about 30% versus almost any two cards, including top set.

I don't like checking, because we're only 30% to win, but this brings me to something I've been meaning to post about, and just did:

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-games-11/fire-2nd-barrel-nut-draw-154728/#post1217493

We talked about this the other day and it didn't occur to me that perhaps I should still reply to it, but there you have it.

You think he ever folds after raising turn here? I just don't get how our action if he shoves or makes a smaller raise should ever change just because he's priced in with anything he raised unless it's just total air.
 
gamedemon

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I would bet $16 on the turn and call any standard re-raise; then re-evaluate on the river.
 
F Paulsson

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You think he ever folds after raising turn here? I just don't get how our action if he shoves or makes a smaller raise should ever change just because he's priced in with anything he raised unless it's just total air.

When I talked it through with Chuck, I got the impression that his opponent was able to raise the turn with a very wide range of hands, and a lot of it as bluffs. We're not even favorites versus bluffs, of course, so we'll happily take any fold equity we can get. If we think a raise always indicates a hand he'll play for stacks, then we need to find a different line and I'd probably go for check/shove.
 
zachvac

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Actually the more I look at this the more I like a ch/jam line.
 
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