$50 NLHE 6-max: Turn TP vs Aggroish Villian

Jurn8

Jurn8

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sample is 113 hands

Turn the A and bet smallish for a jack to float, I think its too small and looks like an inducing size. Villians WWSF is really high at 64 and his cbet stats are both only over 1 sample and his turn aggro factor is 12 which is super high, call here and call most rivers sound like a goot plan?

Prima Network $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1721071
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

SB: $56.04 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 15, 3B: 7, AF: 2.8, Hands: 443
BB: $30.66 - VPIP: 35, PFR: 4, 3B: 0, AF: 1.0, Hands: 175
Hero (UTG): $54.36 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 16, 3B: 5, AF: 3.2, Hands: 8735
MP: $15.00 - VPIP: 26, PFR: 23, 3B: 19, AF: 2.8, Hands: 97
CO: $59.58 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 17, 3B: 3, AF: 0.0, Hands: 175
BTN: $51.00 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 13, 3B: 7, AF: 10.0, Hands: 117

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with A :club: K :spade:
Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, BTN calls $1.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($3.75) J :club: 8 :heart: 4 :spade: (2 players)
Hero bets $2.00, BTN calls $2

Turn: ($7.75) A :diamond: (2 players)
Hero bets $3.75, BTN raises to $9, Hero ?
 
WVHillbilly

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I think if you call here you should probably be c/folding most rivers. Once you call the turn raise only a true maniac bets the river with anything you beat imo.
 
bgomez89

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wow barf imo. We need more hands like these. I think with him being so aggro I might have to go with baudib but not many people like to bluff rivers so I can see where WV is coming from
 
Deco

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Fold, not close.

We need villain to either be floating air (or a straight draw) then raising the turn on a bluff or turning a mediocre hand into a bluff. I need reads/history before believing either of these.
Villain will also has a fairly tight range for calling UTG raises yet AJ/JJ/88/44 fit in perfectly. Lastly his sizing looks pretty damn strong, I find just under 3x is for value more often than a proper sized 3x or above bet.
 
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Deco

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sample is 113 hands

*Turn the A and bet smallish for a jack to float, I think its too small and looks like an inducing size.
*Villians WWSF is really high at 64 and his cbet stats are both only over 1 sample and his turn aggro factor is 12 which is super high

*Really overthinking things here, the guy has 113 hands on you. Not to mention 99% of 50NL villain don't have the balls or intelligence to do this nevermind on 113 hands. If they somehow had a read you double barrel lots here they're either not floating or raising their air. If they're holding a jack or underpair and think your FOS they will likely call.
Your smart enough to recognize your sizing as light value. Most villains aren't and that's why we make money. Don't call this raise till you know he's a smart bastard or at least wait till his range is wider. In future make the sizing bigger to remove all doubt from your mind if villain isn't fishy.

*Not converged in the slightest.
 
acky100

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Meh, think im more with Deco and WV, if he's good enough to make moves like this i dont expect him to be doing it with hands that have SDV here like JQ, etc, surely he would just call rather than turn them into bluffs. I think it looks like a fold because 100 hands is meaningless for any of them stats you mentioned. In game i probably (incorrectly) gamble by calling and hoping he checks back or hoping when i call the river he's bluffing. But it is just a total gamble as we have no evidence and we cant create a plan for the hand with anything backing it up other than we dont want to fold tp and he could be bluffing us.
 
JOEBOB69

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If he floated Ax on the flop,he is raising like 100% of the time here.I call and prob c/f river.
 
Jurn8

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*Really overthinking things here, the guy has 113 hands on you. Not to mention 99% of 50NL villain don't have the balls or intelligence to do this nevermind on 113 hands. If they somehow had a read you double barrel lots here they're either not floating or raising their air. If they're holding a jack or underpair and think your FOS they will likely call.
Your smart enough to recognize your sizing as light value. Most villains aren't and that's why we make money. Don't call this raise till you know he's a smart bastard or at least wait till his range is wider. In future make the sizing bigger to remove all doubt from your mind if villain isn't fishy.

*Not converged in the slightest.

with a really high aggro factor, high WWSF and a 3bet of 7 I think his range is pretty polarised here. His raise size is also weird, he is either wanting me to call or give himself a cheap bluff as my bet size is kinda weak looking to him
 
Jurn8

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Not converged, Not converged, irrelevant.

you cant just say not converged over everything, they have to have some relevance or what is the point in using a HUD after 100 hands.
We might aswell just turn it off then until we have 10k hands on somebody
 
Deco

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with a really high aggro factor, high WWSF and a 3bet of 7 I think his range is pretty polarised here. His raise size is also weird, he is either wanting me to call or give himself a cheap bluff as my bet size is kinda weak looking to him

Not converged, Not converged, irrelevant.


you cant just say not converged over everything, they have to have some relevance or what is the point in using a HUD after 100 hands.
We might aswell just turn it off then until we have 10k hands on somebody

At no point did I say all stats are useless at 100 hands.
AF and WWSF are useless at 100 hands.
 
Jurn8

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20 samples for WWSF in 100 hands I think does have some merit
 
Deco

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20 samples for WWSF in 100 hands I think does have some merit

How do you think it affects villains range on the turn?
It's possible he had actually held good hands for 13 of the flops he's seen, or maybe all he had to do was c-bet once to take down the pot on the flop, or drew out on the river, or bet after hitting a draw on the turn. The possibilities for how he won those 13hands are so wide it's incredibly insignificant. The difference between a high and low figure here is no more than half a dozen hands.

VPIP and PFR stats we can make do and use with a mild degree of accuracy after a mere 20 hands if the stats are fairly extreme. Multi-street scoped Postflop stats take much longer to be meaningful as the potential scenarios in which these stats may have been generated are much wider. I'd much rather make an assumption on villains postflop aggression based on his preflop stats at this point than use a totally unconverged stat.
By the time stats like AF and W$WSF do converge I'd have convergence on more useful specific stats such as raise c-bet and c-bet flop/turn/river to be the judge of villains postflop aggression.

Lastly even if these stats were minor reads (I believe they are completely insignificant and not even mild reads). An underconverged stat is not enough for me to assume something as radical that villain is both floating the flop and then baluga bluffing it.
 
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