$50 NLHE 6-max: Turn 'nuts' 3 way IP, raise turn? Call river?

SB is a reg, 24/19, sqz 3%, fcbet 50%, 1.5k hands.
MP is a relative unknown, 40/20, 5 hands
(fwiw BB is also a reg who doesn't squeeze much)

poker stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players

UTG: $47.15
MP: $55.77
CO: $21.32
Hero (BTN): $58.48
SB: $108.99
BB: $50.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with 6 6
1 fold, MP raises to $1.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.50, SB calls $1.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($5.00) 7 5 4 (3 players)
SB checks, MP bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50, SB calls $2.50

Turn: ($12.50) 8 (3 players)
SB checks, MP bets $7, Hero calls $7, SB folds

River: ($26.50) K (2 players)
MP bets $44.77 all in, Hero ...

Turn: I figure I've got the best hand here like always, but are we flatting or raising? My relative position is a little awkward for the flat, as I give SB odds to boat up/flush, and while I can comfortably fold to him, I will not have that luxury on the river if he doesn't lead. I know he folded the turn, but what do you think re our decision on the turn? My thought at the time was, if I wanted to get folds I would raise, so I ought to flat the nuts... but idk now, since vs two with perhaps significant equity against me, I probably should have raised?

River. Ugh. Unknown. Doubt he could be turning his hand into a bluff? Does he think his set is getting paid off by worse? Given the action up until the river I figured I was up against an overpair. Is he spazzing out with AA/KK? Did he get there with an aggressively played AQss type hand? (unlikely into 2 surely).

Thoughts?

1) raise turn - sure you fold out most worst hands especially bluff hands. But FDs + hands like sets and big PP could call here.

2) [edit] unsure about river

I like the flat on the turn.
River ehhh.He as to be shoving air,sets,AA more than half the time for you to make the call.So ehhh in game i prob click call.Then look at AsJs,AsQs

Raise the turn. Make him make a -EV call (or a very -EV shove)

If you call, the SB seems more likely to fold than call, which makes the pot 26.50 with effective stacks of about 45.

If you make it say 20 and get called by MP, the pot is 52.50 with effective stacks of 31, which makes for a normal-sized river shove by either of you.

If he folds, what's he likely to have that you would have gotten much more money from him by just calling? Seems like it's not a large range, which means you haven't lost much by not keeping him in.

As played, it seems like you've pretty much painted yourself into a corner where you have to call. You basically did nothing to narrow his range, which includes not giving him any chance to fold possible river bluff hands.

Arjonius said:

Raise the turn. Make him make a -EV call (or a very -EV shove)

If you call, the SB seems more likely to fold than call??? But calls a raise??I don't understand that comment., which makes the pot 26.50 with effective stacks of about 45.

If you make it say 20 and get called by MP, the pot is 52.50 with effective stacks of 31, which makes for a normal-sized river shove by either of you.

If he folds, what's he likely to have that you would have gotten much more money from him by just calling? Seems like it's not a large range, which means you haven't lost much by not keeping him in.

As played, it seems like you've pretty much painted yourself into a corner where you have to call. You basically did nothing to narrow his range, which includes not giving him any chance to fold possible river bluff hands.

Click to expand...

I understand wanting to make the pot bigger for a all in river bet but,what calls the turn raise perhaps a set and thats all.You run a over pair,and a bluff out of the pot.

flat turn/fold river

baudib1 said:

flat turn/fold river

Click to expand...

Pls elaborate. For me this is a verry weird hand.

im gunna raise the turn if im not up against someone i know is bluff happy. if he bets both flop and turn into two players you'd presume he's strong. Overpairs are definately a possibility but I'm wanting to get the sets all in here before the river brings a drawy card and they can fold. Any spazz with an overpair may bet the river but definately isnt calling a raise. And id be ruling out completely flattin for value from bluffs. Highly unlikely the villain is going to bluff 3 streets with air vs. two opponents. A semi bluff is a reasonable assumption Cbetting flop n semi bluffing the turn which is again why I raise to make villian pay for the river. I think wayy more often than not you will get more value from raising the turn than flatting.

Look, pretty standard fold imo.

A bet like this is either the nuts, or damn all, and i for one like to take low variance lines. So i take tje low variance line and fold. We can prob run good/bad in spots like this and have HUGE differences in our results, i still fold all day against anyone competant, against any sort of read i snap.