$50 NLHE 6-max: TP on 2 flush board facing a smallish c/r... turn play when check to?

Cafeman

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$50 NLHE 6-max: TP on 2 flush board facing a smallish c/r... turn play when check to?

Villain is a pita on the flop, but relatively straightforward on the turn and river. 2k hands, 23/18/2.6 with a c/r cbet of 30%. In the past he's done it with any 2 overcards, OESDs, FDs, and all the usual sets and stuff.

poker stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players

Hero (CO): $50.50
BTN: $15.20
SB: $39.84
BB: $52.29
UTG: $50.24

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with J
spade.gif
A
diamond.gif

1 fold, Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3.25) 7
diamond.gif
4
diamond.gif
A
spade.gif
(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.12, BB raises to $5.50, Hero calls $3.38

Turn: ($14.25) 5
club.gif
(2 players)
BB checks, Hero ... ?

On the flop he didn't c/r very big, which I think /might/ rule out a set/2 pair. So after I call, the turn bricks and he checks to me, should I always bet here, knowing I'll get value from his flush draws/straight draws, but can safely fold to another c/r - not that I think he has ever gone for a double c/r in the past, especially since he knows I'm not likely to bet the turn with a bare FD myself.

A pretty standard value bet on the turn right? How much?
 
absoluthamm

absoluthamm

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With a huge c/r percentage, I 4Bet that flop.

As for how it's played out, things likely didn't change with that turn card. Sure it added in some more straight possibilities, but they would only apply to him c/r'ing with gutter hands. Bet.
 
LuckyChippy

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I really don't like 4betting flop.

Bet/fold turn around the $10 mark, hope it bricks.
 
Cafeman

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With a huge c/r percentage, I 4Bet that flop.
You mean bet/3bet right? I don't think that's a good idea given the range of hands he c/r with (he can't have overcards in this instance), and especially since he kinda sobers up on the turn with his whiffed semi-bluffs. On top of which, he could quite reasonably add FE to his PE and 4bet/shove with his entire flop c/r range, which then puts us in a terrible spot with just TP reasonable kicker.
 
acky100

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Yeah i dont like 3betting the flop, think checking back turn is missing value if he will just straight call with draws, would be interesting if he ch/shoved the turn but i don't know if i could fold giving our reads :/
 
absoluthamm

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You mean bet/3bet right? I don't think that's a good idea given the range of hands he c/r with (he can't have overcards in this instance), and especially since he kinda sobers up on the turn with his whiffed semi-bluffs. On top of which, he could quite reasonably add FE to his PE and 4bet/shove with his entire flop c/r range, which then puts us in a terrible spot with just TP reasonable kicker.
My bad, yes I meant 3bet, just one key over ;). I still stand with my statement though. You say he's doing this with OESD's, FDs, overcards, etc., we are ahead against those by a longshot. Against both a OESD and a FD we are almost a 70% favorite... against two overs we are crushing, against another Ax lower than AJ like AT we are a 90% favorite. Even against an OESFD we are at a coinflip. We do lose to sets and AQ+, but I don't see 2 pair showing up here often.
 
Cafeman

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My bad, yes I meant 3bet, just one key over ;). I still stand with my statement though. You say he's doing this with OESD's, FDs, overcards, etc., we are ahead against those by a longshot. Against both a OESD and a FD we are almost a 70% favorite... against two overs we are crushing, against another Ax lower than AJ like AT we are a 90% favorite. Even against an OESFD we are at a coinflip. We do lose to sets and AQ+, but I don't see 2 pair showing up here often.

You remove most 2 pairs from his possible holdings and yet still consider he might have overcards? I'm not nit picking, but come on... ;)

He's unlikely to do this with AQ+ as he'll happily let me value own myself with those hands (imo he will be going for at least 2 streets, so either check/call, check/call, check/evaluate or check/call, check/check, bet/evaluate, or something like that).

So we're left with semi bluffs and 2P+. Surely calling his small c/r and betting any turn that's checked to us is the best play here?


As a follow up, I would probably be aiming to check back most rivers if he calls my turn bet. What do you all think about that?
 
WVHillbilly

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As a follow up, I would probably be aiming to check back most rivers if he calls my turn bet. What do you all think about that?
Agree completely. I'd probably bet again on a not diamond Jack and not much else.
 
absoluthamm

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You remove most 2 pairs from his possible holdings and yet still consider he might have overcards? I'm not nit picking, but come on... ;)
Made that judgement based upon the first part of your OP. He could have two pair as well, but I don't see 7-4 limping to an open often with a VPIP of 23 often, even A4s I see that happening at the very bottom of his range. So I could add in A7s, but I don't see any A7o or A4o being in his range here, so there are 2 more hands I see him possibly having, Ah7h and Ac7c.
2k hands, 23/18/2.6 with a c/r cbet of 30%. In the past he's done it with any 2 overcards, OESDs, FDs, and all the usual sets and stuff.
He's unlikely to do this with AQ+ as he'll happily let me value own myself with those hands (imo he will be going for at least 2 streets, so either check/call, check/call, check/evaluate or check/call, check/check, bet/evaluate, or something like that).
I would agree with the play of allowing someone to valuetown themselves, but why would he allow you to valuetown yourself with maybe TPTK, but not when he has two pair or a set?

So we're left with semi bluffs and 2P+. Surely calling his small c/r and betting any turn that's checked to us is the best play here?


As a follow up, I would probably be aiming to check back most rivers if he calls my turn bet. What do you all think about that?
Agreed.
eh
 
Deco

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I bet/call $10.
Given villains very high polarized CR%, and his 5% Vpip/PFR gap we can expect plenty of flush draws and even air.

I 3bet this flop to $15 and hope villain shoves.
As played it will be fairly tricky to get anymore money out of a flush draw, I'd prefer flatting if I knew villain would follow through on the turn so I could shove over him. I bet call for $10, in the hope villain will shove on us.
 
bgomez89

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Yep Im betting turn. The cr looks like it could be a draw trying to get a free card on the turn
 
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