$50 NLHE 6-max: Top Pair Ace Kicker. A Common Scenario Disected.

$50 NL HE 6-max: Top Pair Ace Kicker. A Common Scenario Disected.

UTG: 25/19/48 (50hands) Fold to 3bet=100%


Full Tilt, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

Hero (CO): $50 (100 bb)
BTN: $10 (20 bb)
SB: $50.45 (100.9 bb)
BB: $72.65 (145.3 bb)
UTG: $125.25 (250.5 bb)
MP: $37.40 (74.8 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with A:club: Q:diamond:
UTG raises to $1.75, MP folds, Hero calls $1.75, BTN calls $1.75, SB folds, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($7.25) 7:club: Q:club: 3:diamond: (4 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $6, Hero calls $6, BTN folds, BB folds

Turn: ($19.25) 6:diamond: (2 players)
UTG bets $11, Hero ???

1. What would you do in this hand? Knock 20 hands and 20 Afq of UTG's stats and does your play alter?
   
   
2. Against a flush draw is calling the right play in case they read us for another flush draw and triple barrel?
   
   
3. How many combos of flush draw do you think are out there? how do you calculate this at speed?

I think the standard play here would be to call turn and then fold river.

1.) If you knock 20 hands and 20 Afq off of UTGs stats I still play it the same since having 30 hands on someone basically means nothing.

2.) There is no way you can specifically put him on a flush draw here so you cant make a decision on how to play this hand saying he has a flush draw and a flush draw only.

3.) This totally depends on how light hes opening UTG. If he is opening suited connectors UTG then there are some flush draws in his range, but if he is real tight UTG then there really arent many flush draws at all in his range since you hold the A of clubs and a lot of his opening range UTG is going to be big Aces and Pocket pairs.

I'm a calling station so I call down 3 barrels here a lot.

Also, I'm always bluffing river if a club falls, because villain has nearly no flush draw in his range and our line is consistent.

I can understand the lack of flush draws I never thought of how much me holding the Ace of clubs narrows it down.

However I cant see why we would call down without flush draws being a major part of his hand.

I'd put his range on AQ, KK+, 33, 77 and flush draws.
I think a double barrel against the preflop raiser out of position with air is unlikely at best.

Other then a flush draw what are we hoping to see?

Deco said:

I can understand the lack of flush draws I never thought of how much me holding the Ace of clubs narrows it down.

However I cant see why we would call down without flush draws being a major part of his hand.

I'd put his range on AQ, KK+, 33, 77 and flush draws.
I think a double barrel against the preflop raiser out of position with air is unlikely at best.

Other then a flush draw what are we hoping to see?

Click to expand...

AK, KQ, JJ, TT ...

He's oop which sucks for him, so he kind of has to barrel even mediocre hands unimproved. And a Q high flop is not that scary for those hands.

KQ, TT,JJ certainly aint gunna get value here though

Were making presumptions that he's aggressive both in the sense he will barrel Overcards or make bad value bets?

We can't raise anywhere in the hand? If his steal percentage is also 19-25ish, I think we can get value from worse queens, flush draws, maybe re-bluffed.

c9h13no3 said:

We can't raise anywhere in the hand? If his steal percentage is also 19-25ish, I think we can get value from worse queens, flush draws, maybe re-bluffed.

Click to expand...

You know I think I'll give that a go.
The main appeal is that the chance of us getting bluffed on our hand on the turn by a flush draw or someone overkilling their out kicked queen is unlikely anymore.

The less appealing thing is if they 3bet.
Are you calling if they shove over the top?

Deco said:

KQ, TT,JJ certainly aint gunna get value here though

Were making presumptions that he's aggressive both in the sense he will barrel Overcards or make bad value bets?

Click to expand...

You're overlooking the fact of how much you've underrepped your hand, and of how great of a board this is to barrel (you are contemplating folding AQ here after all).

dsvw56 said:

You're overlooking the fact of how much you've underrepped your hand, and of how great of a board this is to barrel (you are contemplating folding AQ here after all).

Click to expand...

How is this a great board to barrel on?
My range is pretty much queens and the occasional flush draw or pocketpair.
The flush draws and queens are not hands that scream fold equity and the pocketpairs are a minor part of my range.
Yes am underrepping it but my range is still not particularly weak.
And yes I may be contemplating folding AQ here, that doesn't make it a good barrel as I sure as hell wouldn't try and get your average 25NL opponent to fold AQ here.

I just wanna point this out quick. Notice how rarely he has to be bluffing to make this an easy call.

Board: 6d 3d 7c Qc


Hand 0: 05.114% { AcQd }
Hand 1: 94.886% { QQ+, 77, 33 }

Board: 6d 3d 7c Qc
Dead:


Hand 0: 48.011% { AcQd }
Hand 1: 51.989% { QQ+, 77, 33, KJs, KJo }

dsvw56 said:

I just wanna point this out quick. Notice how rarely he has to be bluffing to make this an easy call.

Board: 6d 3d 7c Qc


Hand 0: 05.114% { AcQd }
Hand 1: 94.886% { QQ+, 77, 33 }

Board: 6d 3d 7c Qc
Dead:


Hand 0: 48.011% { AcQd }
Hand 1: 51.989% { QQ+, 77, 33, KJs, KJo }

Click to expand...

Add 66 to this there's even a possibility of 45 or 67.

24combos is not that tight of a range. If we went by this we would never lay down toppair ace kicker if there isn't an immediate flush or straight out there as adding 16 bluff combos would instantly make it an EV worthy call.

Sure when a villain is repping a very small range it is more likely there bluffing, that is not to say they can never hold Overpairs or sets. I'd like good stats showing a villain to be aggressive before I presume their bluffing air on this board the 40% (your KJ represents) of the time we need to get this elusive 51.989% equity.
We are not going to see your average 25NL player double barrelling this 40% of the time, this guy is showing tendencies of aggression but lets not get out of hand with 30-50 hands now.

Deco said:

Add 66 to this there's even a possibility of 45 or 67.

24combos is not that tight of a range. If we went by this we would never lay down toppair ace kicker if there isn't an immediate flush or straight out there.

Click to expand...

wtf?!?!?!?

So he's capable of opening 45 and 67 UTG, but not of double barreling, ever?

dsvw56 said:

wtf?!?!?!?

So he's capable of opening 45 and 67 UTG, but not of double barreling, ever?

Click to expand...

you'll see plenty of players willing to open 45 and 67 UTG but not Double barrel this board.
Preflop aggression is alot easiar to pull off than postflop aggression and what more as stated before I don't think this is a board that screams double barrel me.

Regardless i didn't add those hands into it as its a big presumption he's that loose UTG. Like i think its a big presumptions he's going to be holding air here a big portion of the time