$50 NLHE 6-max: Thin Value bet on river vs deepish reg

Deltafrost

Deltafrost

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$50 NL HE 6-max: Thin Value bet on river vs deepish reg

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 20/17/1.7

Villain is typical tagtard, 3bets 10.5 but its a small sample, folds to cbet 50%. More stats upon request

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HAND #1
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poker stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

CO: $50 (100 bb)
BTN: $95 (190 bb)
SB: $54.75 (109.5 bb)
BB: $71.60 (143.2 bb)
Hero (MP): $69.35 (138.7 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP with J
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J
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Hero raises to $2, CO folds, BTN calls $2, SB folds, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($6.25) 5
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3
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2
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(3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4.50, BTN calls $4.50, BB folds

Turn: ($15.25) A
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(2 players)
Hero bets $10, BTN calls $10

River: ($35.25) J
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(2 players)
Hero bets $28

Opinions? Does he call with enough naked aces to to bet this? Do you call a shove? is a 4 even in his range other than 44?

Actually the more i look at it its a for sure bet, but does he shove enough sets/air/ other random combos to make calling a shove profitable if he does?
 
cjay142

cjay142

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If my math is right you only have about 24 left behind, so after you bet 28, yes you're def calling a shove.

Besides 44, I don't think any 4 is in his range at 20/17/1.7. Looks like he was floating you on the flop w/ the gutshot w/ a hand like AT/AQ then hit the A on the turn.

If you're 200 deep and have more than a small raise left behind, I think you're still calling.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Uh... what's up with the turn?
 
slycbnew

slycbnew

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Are you implying that he should be slowing down here, or betting bigger?

The A is a huge part of Villain's range, we're bloating the pot with a hand that's very likely behind.

On the turn, is c/c, c (unimproved - on this river I don't think the river bet is very thin) /c (reasonable sized bets, fold to a shove) the preferred plan?

I don't like c/f'ing the turn unless there's a huge bet, because Villain's got a great bluff opportunity - is that reasonable or is it spew?
 
Deltafrost

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: figured A was a good barrel card if i was barreling flop with overs. plan was to shut down after turn. river was kinda weird. but still enough value for a bet to have merit.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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: figured A was a good barrel card if i was barreling flop with overs.
What hands are better than ours, that villain will fold when we bet this turn?

Also, what do you think this villain's range looks like when he calls the flop? Do you think he calls the flop with any ace?
 
Deltafrost

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Good point, betting the turn is pretty worthless. Are we ch/calling then?

For the flop I think villain's range is Ax, 44, 66-88, and a discounted range of broadway cards that he floats at least one street with. That sound about right? Still working on my ranges and starting to think in them instead of absolutes.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Board: 5c 3h 2s

38.338% { 88-22, AJs-A9s, A5s-A4s, 65s, 54s, AJo-ATo }
61.662% { JJ }

Board: 5c 3h 2s Ac

67.149% { 88-22, AJs-A9s, A5s-A4s, 65s, 54s, AJo-ATo }
32.851% { JJ }


Given the range I gave him that had no pure floats in it, I think its a pretty clear fold. And even if there are floats in his range, I'm not sure there are enough to check/call, especially considering that his weak over pairs & some of his aces will be scared to bet.

As a default line, I'd check/fold the turn. Check/calling only becomes good if villain is really floaty & bluffy.
 
Deltafrost

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Forgot about this. Villain had A5s so C9 was basically dead on (as usual).

he snap called me pretty quickly, lucky river FTW
 
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