$50 NLHE 6-max: Is there merit to my play or just spew?
Villain stats are 21/19 over 143 hands, 8% 3bet, cbet flop+turn both 100%, only (3/3) and (2/2). I haven't tangoed with him before.
My thoughts: When he doesn't cbet the flop he's usually just giving up so standard stab, when he calls I'm thinking he has some weak showdown value type hand that isn't strong enough to vbet. I don't think he checks overpairs/sets/strong T's because it's a pretty wet board. So i'm pretty much thinking it's like 99,77,A8,87s, that sort of hand, maybe AK getting stubborn.
The turn doesn't change anything so I think a turn barrel is going to get him to fold all of the stuff i mentioned above most of the time. He tank called the turn which led me to believe he does have a weak showdown type hand. Again river doesn't change anything so I think surely his weak showdown type hand can't stand up to a third barrel so I ship. I think that I rep overpairs and sets.
So what do u think? Do I not rep enough? Is the range I've given him fair or do u think he can show up with strong hands here? Is there merit to this or is it just spewy?
888 Poker - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (BTN): $50.00
SB: $21.67 (VPIP: 22.00, PFR: 18.54, 3Bet Preflop: 6.62, Hands: 1,368)
(VPIP: 20.69, PFR: 19.31, 3Bet Preflop: 9.26, Hands: 148)
UTG: $24.08 (VPIP: 41.82, PFR: 10.91, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 55)
CO: $37.55 (VPIP: 13.70, PFR: 5.48, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 76)
SB posts SB $0.25, BB
posts BB $0.50
Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero
, Hero raises to $1.31
, BB raises to $5.00
Flop: ($10.25, 2 players)
checks, Hero bets $5.50
Turn: ($21.25, 2 players)
checks, Hero bets $12.00
River: ($45.25, 2 players)
checks, Hero bets $27.50(all in)