€50 NLHE 6-max: So I folded this but what happened?

Thinker_145 · Mar 31, 2016

iPoker - €0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 115.62 BB (VPIP: 23.03, PFR: 17.98, 3Bet Preflop: 8.81, hands: 466)
MP: 102.32 BB (VPIP: 29.41, PFR: 21.57, 3Bet Preflop: 14.71, Hands: 108)
CO: 411.88 BB (VPIP: 27.13, PFR: 21.96, 3Bet Preflop: 9.79, Hands: 650)
Hero (BTN): 140.56 BB
SB: 150.8 BB (VPIP: 34.29, PFR: 14.47, 3Bet Preflop: 6.20, Hands: 322)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 29.21, PFR: 22.47, 3Bet Preflop: 3.23, Hands: 185)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:heart: K:club:

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 10 BB, fold, fold, UTG calls 7 BB

Flop: (21.5 BB, 2 players) 2:spade: K:spade: 7:heart:
UTG checks, Hero bets 12.9 BB, UTG calls 12.9 BB

Turn: (47.3 BB, 2 players) A:spade:
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: (47.3 BB, 2 players) 8:club:
UTG bets 92.72 BB, fold

UTG wins 137.66 BB

I don't understand the river bet. He had a flush and thought I might have a set and call? He had a set and wanted maximum value from it?

John A · Mar 31, 2016

I assume you checked the turn to open up his river bluff range / his river calling range? It doesn't make any sense for you to have a set there so it looks pretty much like a bluff and probably not a level to get you to call w/ some marginal hand. Him having a set doesn't make sense either, even if it was 88. Your hand doesn't look strong enough to call that kind of value. You have some hands on him, I assume you haven't seen him over bet? If I had to bet, I'd say it is what it looks like, which is he turned some mid strength hand like TT-QQ into a bluff.

Trabendo_daze · Mar 31, 2016

I think your hand is massively underrepped and allows him to take this line with more bluffs. Your hand looks like KQ, KJ, maybe QQ (specifically that you were afraid of the ace). I agree with John, he probably thinks he can get you off something like that with an overbet. I'm calling here.

Thinker_145 · Mar 31, 2016

John A said:
I assume you checked the turn to open up his river bluff range / his river calling range? It doesn't make any sense for you to have a set there so it looks pretty much like a bluff and probably not a level to get you to call w/ some marginal hand. Him having a set doesn't make sense either, even if it was 88. Your hand doesn't look strong enough to call that kind of value. You have some hands on him, I assume you haven't seen him over bet? If I had to bet, I'd say it is what it looks like, which is he turned some mid strength hand like TT-QQ into a bluff.

Yes I checked to keep pot control, I wasn't really beating much on the turn. I was going to call any pot size bet except perhaps if the fourth spade comes on the river.

This guy never over bet before and not only that but he was checking back reasonably good hands against me on the river no thin value. Very small sample but his guy had a high fold to c bet so his call OOP in a 3 bet pot made me worried.

John A · Mar 31, 2016

Thinker_145 said:
Yes I checked to keep pot control, I wasn't really beating much on the turn. I was going to call any pot size bet except perhaps if the fourth spade comes on the river.

This guy never over bet before and not only that but he was checking back reasonably good hands against me on the river no thin value. Very small sample but his guy had a high fold to c bet so his call OOP in a 3 bet pot made me worried.

I'm never checking the turn, at least if I want to have a good turn bluffing range also, which for my game is important. I over bet a lot of turns also, even in 3-bet pots.

It's hard to say honestly, because it also matters how he perceived you of course. But if that's the case w/ his other stats, then a flush makes even less sense. What you're saying doesn't seem to all fit together. Why would he over bet a set this much? Not a lot of sets that make sense based on his profile, because I think we have to discount AA/KK between you having AK and him not 4-betting w/ these stack sizes (which are ideal of 4-betting those hands) and we can assume he's folding 22.

Still my best guess is he had TT/JJ and figured he had a very high chance of a successful bluff with a large over bet. Kids at 50nl are picking up on this more and more now a days.

Thinker_145 · Mar 31, 2016

He did call a 3 bet with 99 OOP previously...so he can have 77 no? He does have a low fold to 3 bet stat.

I have played a good amount of 50NL and at least where I play over bets are very rare from regs. I mean without some history I just don't see a call here. What I should do is take a note of this for future.

Still it's interesting you guys think it was a bluff will definitely keep an eye on this player.

Trabendo_daze · Mar 31, 2016

Honestly 88 makes the most sense for value hands but there are only 3 combos. I think 77 would bet turn. Fwiw I think we need to bet turn here. His range is wider than just flush draws and we want to get value/protect against random one spade hands and other aces (especially those with a spade).

John A · Mar 31, 2016

Thinker_145 said:
He did call a 3 bet with 99 OOP previously...so he can have 77 no? He does have a low fold to 3 bet stat.

I have played a good amount of 50NL and at least where I play over bets are very rare from regs. I mean without some history I just don't see a call here. What I should do is take a note of this for future.

Still it's interesting you guys think it was a bluff will definitely keep an eye on this player.

Sorry, I thought you were saying he folds to 3-bets a lot. Ok, scratch what I said then.... lol but regardless, yes he can have 77, that's why I was saying only to exclude 22 mostly.

So based on what you're saying, then he's just super polarized to a flush or mid pair turned bluff. I don't think a set makes much sense. He's probably just thinking, I made my flush, he checked that turn, only way I can get paid is if I level him into a call. It's either that or he knows you're weak but he knows he's beat with his 99-JJ type hand. We'll never know.

Thinker_145 · Mar 31, 2016

Yes and as you know very well I don't generally fold big hands on the river so there is no way he knows "me" that I am going to fold this hand. If it's a bluff it only needs to be a shove if he knew exactly what I have and he can't know I will fold. If I had QQ he could just take it down by a smaller bluff on the river.

I don't 3 bet light so for him to attempt a bluff against my 3 bet range on that board is very very gutsy. AQ is perhaps one hand that would only fold to an over bet.

Thinker_145 · Mar 31, 2016

Trabendo_daze said:
Honestly 88 makes the most sense for value hands but there are only 3 combos. I think 77 would bet turn. Fwiw I think we need to bet turn here. His range is wider than just flush draws and we want to get value/protect against random one spade hands and other aces (especially those with a spade).

What random 1 spade hands could he have though? KQ is the only possibility all other should be folding the flop. I don't see how JJ can call on the flop.

Trabendo_daze · Mar 31, 2016

I don't think it's ridiculous for QQ, JJ, or TT to check call one street here, especially if they might think you're 3-betting light and will give up after one street.

John A · Mar 31, 2016

Thinker_145 said:
Yes and as you know very well I don't generally fold big hands on the river so there is no way he knows "me" that I am going to fold this hand. If it's a bluff it only needs to be a shove if he knew exactly what I have and he can't know I will fold. If I had QQ he could just take it down by a smaller bluff on the river.

I don't 3 bet light so for him to attempt a bluff against my 3 bet range on that board is very very gutsy. AQ is perhaps one hand that would only fold to an over bet.

He doesn't know what, but he knows you probably have Kx or Ax or JJ/QQ. I mean if you didn't have Ax you're most likely bluffing the turn. So I'm just saying, if I was playing this hand, and I had you on that range, I'm over betting that river. Now, how often a 50nl player is understanding and executing this, I don't know. I'm just stating it's becoming more common than it used to be.

When bluffing you're looking at what hands that player has and what sizing you're trying to bet in order to get what % of that range to fold. We could chart it on a bell curve if we wanted where X% bet folds out Y% range and where those break even points are.

So you don't 3-bet much, so TT/AQ probably isn't in your 3-betting range vs UTG open. So JJ/QQ are hands that he can probably bet 2/3rds pot and get you to fold them enough of the time to be profitable. But there's a lot more additional combos of Ax and Kx that he needs to push you off of. All of those hands will fold to an overshove over 90% of the time. You folded top 2, so we have some evidence right there that it worked against your entire decent value range that you'd be betting if he checked the river. That's what he's trying to fold out. And I'm not saying he definitely did and understood this, I'm just saying it's polarized to a leveling flush push or he tried to get you off an obvious better hand range vs his mid pair hand.

I still think your mistake is not betting this turn, but it also needs to fit into a larger plan of what you're doing at the table.

Thinker_145 · Apr 3, 2016

John A said:
He doesn't know what, but he knows you probably have Kx or Ax or JJ/QQ. I mean if you didn't have Ax you're most likely bluffing the turn. So I'm just saying, if I was playing this hand, and I had you on that range, I'm over betting that river. Now, how often a 50nl player is understanding and executing this, I don't know. I'm just stating it's becoming more common than it used to be.

When bluffing you're looking at what hands that player has and what sizing you're trying to bet in order to get what % of that range to fold. We could chart it on a bell curve if we wanted where X% bet folds out Y% range and where those break even points are.

So you don't 3-bet much, so TT/AQ probably isn't in your 3-betting range vs UTG open. So JJ/QQ are hands that he can probably bet 2/3rds pot and get you to fold them enough of the time to be profitable. But there's a lot more additional combos of Ax and Kx that he needs to push you off of. All of those hands will fold to an overshove over 90% of the time. You folded top 2, so we have some evidence right there that it worked against your entire decent value range that you'd be betting if he checked the river. That's what he's trying to fold out. And I'm not saying he definitely did and understood this, I'm just saying it's polarized to a leveling flush push or he tried to get you off an obvious better hand range vs his mid pair hand.

I still think your mistake is not betting this turn, but it also needs to fit into a larger plan of what you're doing at the table.

Thanks for your detailed analysis.

One last thing. Are you betting the turn and checking the river? And folding to a turn check raise?

TimovieMan · Apr 4, 2016

I bet the turn about 100% of the time here.

As played, I think we're either up against a set or a bluff here, and I'm not sure that sets overbet the river.
There's only one combo of AA, one combo of KK, 3 combos of 77 and maybe 2 discounted combos of 88.
22 would've folded preflop, and with the As and Ks on the board I don't see any flush combos in his range (since QJ and JT would've folded to your 3-bet).

My bet is that this is JJ/TT/99 wanting you to fold your better hand.

Call.

Figaroo2 · Apr 4, 2016

Yeah I'm struggling to see why you are pot controlling this turn. He knows you are tight and don't 3bet light, so that pretty much rules out most flushes. I wouldn't be pot controlling against sets either here or you will be looking at every hand fearing a set. I'd looking at this thinking can I get value out of AQ KQ before another flush card comes and finishes our action.
So the brick comes on the end and he over bets. If it's a bluff it is brave as you have quite a few big sets yourself here.
So yeah I'm not surprised you were confused. There is part of me that says it doesn't make sense so call and a part that says it's the one time he played JTs and is looking for max value knowing you will be strong here.
With less than 30bb investment in the pot I can totally understand the fold.
Sometimes when it makes no sense I make the call with a hand this strong for the information as well.

f1reball · Apr 4, 2016

easy call.
why did u chek turn? - saw no valuebet & gave him to bluff.
so he did.
overbet ai 4 value? from what?
-he have a set 77, so he bet's ai, waiting call from Ax? does he call 77 on utg oop against btn 3bet?
-he have a flush QJs, so he bet's ai, waiting call from aces? does he call QJs on utg oop against btn 3bet?
i'd fold here against a body ~35/7, but never against a reg.
cud be value overbet, but not ai, some about ~x1,15 of pot.

Search

€50 NLHE 6-max: So I folded this but what happened?

Thinker_145

Visionary

John A

Poker Zion Coach

Trabendo_daze

Rock Star

Thinker_145

Visionary

John A

Poker Zion Coach

Thinker_145

Visionary

Trabendo_daze

Rock Star

John A

Poker Zion Coach

Thinker_145

Visionary

Thinker_145

Visionary

Trabendo_daze

Rock Star

John A

Poker Zion Coach

Thinker_145

Visionary

TimovieMan

Legend

Figaroo2

Legend

f1reball

Enthusiast

About CardsChat

Our Community

Our Site

Follow us

Language