c9h13no3
Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
Everything about this hand sucks.
-The hand history sucks
-The flop decision sucks
-The turn decision is obviously a fold but still sucks.
I honestly play it like you here, calling the flop and folding the turn. But I still don't like that line, and if someone could give me a good argument for just dumping the flop, I could be swayed.
-The hand history sucks
-The flop decision sucks
-The turn decision is obviously a fold but still sucks.
I honestly play it like you here, calling the flop and folding the turn. But I still don't like that line, and if someone could give me a good argument for just dumping the flop, I could be swayed.
C
ComplexPlaya
Legend
Silver Level
Why flat the flop and not raise it big? With a board that drawy you don't want to let someone semi-bluffing draw for free. And you don't want to price the third guy in to draw either, which you will if you flat call.
GrimlyGrim
Rock Star
Silver Level
I don't understand what anyone is saying. He made it 2.5x BB pre-flop. Someone bets the flop two calls. Then bet all-in fold.
I would raise that flop. Will the SB and BB really call that strong? I would call out of the SB/BB here with ATC almost. Especially, if this guy is going to fols A's to me. I mean it is a button raise. Do we really respect it that much???
I would raise that flop. Will the SB and BB really call that strong? I would call out of the SB/BB here with ATC almost. Especially, if this guy is going to fols A's to me. I mean it is a button raise. Do we really respect it that much???
C
ComplexPlaya
Legend
Silver Level
You don't think someone holding any J will call ? QJ KJ JT will be happy to call a big raise here imo. So will all the FDs. Also there are 2 players still in, so a higher chance one of them has a reasonable draw.
Besides that, what do you hope to achieve by calling? There are a ton of scare cards that can kill action on later streets and someone holding K9 or something is unlikely to bet again. On the other hand if a spade, a 9 or an A comes we're in big trouble. I don't see we can realistically expect to make more money this hand by flatting.
The only thing we're really scared of is sets and J9/AJ. We're still 25% against sets tho, and 40% against any 2 pairs so raise and be happy to get it in.
Sets and J9 are the only things that crush us here, and we still have 25% against sets and 18% against J9. AJ is even less likely due to blockers. So if we look at it like that I think we should call the shove as well, being 40% against 2 pairs that definitely want to shove here. We are crushing things like one pair + OESD (70% vs. KJ) and are ahead of one pair + FD as well. When you take into account FE you can see why you're burning yourself calling and not raising.
Play it fast, raise big, get it in. As played still get it in for reasons mentioned above
c9h13no3
Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
If this is the range villain calls preflop with:
{JJ-55, AQ-AT, A9s, KT+, K9s, QT+, Q9s, JT, J9s, T9s, 98s, 87s}
How much equity do you think we have here? The answer is 67%. We're not a big favorite. And that's using 100% of his preflop calling range. Do you think he donk bets the flop with 87 in this hand? A9? No.
He likely donk bets the flop with something like this:
{JJ-TT, AJ, KT+, K9s, QT+, JT, J9s, T9s}
Against that range, we have 54% equity, we're BARELY a favorite. Raising folds out a lot of those 2nd pair + gutshot hands too, so when we raise we probably become a dog when we get all in. I'd expect an all in range to look like this:
This is a standard spot called a BA/WB spot (well, its pretty close, the gutshot gives us some equity). In spots like this we call the flop to see a good turn card to gain equity against all the draws.
However, there's another wrinkle in this hand in that we are over calling rather than just calling. So the 2nd person in the hand also either has us beat or is taking some of our outs from us.
Thus in my opinion, this should be a call. We gain equity on good turns, and we can use our position to see what the two players do on another round of betting. So we'll gain information on the strength of their holdings (if SB bets, and BB folds, we can stack happily for example, plus we'll usually have a turn card that either helps us a lot or lets us get out of the hand cheaply.
{JJ-55, AQ-AT, A9s, KT+, K9s, QT+, Q9s, JT, J9s, T9s, 98s, 87s}
How much equity do you think we have here? The answer is 67%. We're not a big favorite. And that's using 100% of his preflop calling range. Do you think he donk bets the flop with 87 in this hand? A9? No.
He likely donk bets the flop with something like this:
{JJ-TT, AJ, KT+, K9s, QT+, JT, J9s, T9s}
Against that range, we have 54% equity, we're BARELY a favorite. Raising folds out a lot of those 2nd pair + gutshot hands too, so when we raise we probably become a dog when we get all in. I'd expect an all in range to look like this:
This is a standard spot called a BA/WB spot (well, its pretty close, the gutshot gives us some equity). In spots like this we call the flop to see a good turn card to gain equity against all the draws.
However, there's another wrinkle in this hand in that we are over calling rather than just calling. So the 2nd person in the hand also either has us beat or is taking some of our outs from us.
Thus in my opinion, this should be a call. We gain equity on good turns, and we can use our position to see what the two players do on another round of betting. So we'll gain information on the strength of their holdings (if SB bets, and BB folds, we can stack happily for example, plus we'll usually have a turn card that either helps us a lot or lets us get out of the hand cheaply.
C
ComplexPlaya
Legend
Silver Level
Eh nice work c9, I can't do it like you have BUT you left out QJ, JT and JJ. Yes JJ will 3bet but not always with every opponent I reckon, and this guy is fishy. Do you think he's not calling with those hands? he plays 29%. If he calls 20% from the blinds JTo is there and naturally so is QJo. I doubt he ever folds JTs and QJs. If you add those 3 hands we become a 51% favorite.
Even as a 40% favorite plus fold equity there is enough in the pot to make it profitable to raise. You're also overlooking his HUGE agg. factor, 7, he may not bluff here too often but he might as well merge all draws and barrel any scare card, I see it as probable with that high aggression.
Even as a 40% favorite plus fold equity there is enough in the pot to make it profitable to raise. You're also overlooking his HUGE agg. factor, 7, he may not bluff here too often but he might as well merge all draws and barrel any scare card, I see it as probable with that high aggression.
Z
Zybomb
Rock Star
Silver Level
I agree with a lot of the points made in your post but this isn't accurate because it negates to include several key factors
- We have the added equity of a nut gutshot (and hold two of the cards reducing the chopping likelihood by some non 0%)
- We have the added equity of a backdoor nut flush draw (and hence a redraw against flush draws or KsXs)
- We hold blockers to many of villains pair/draw combos, since all of their KJ QJ JT hands lose tons of equity because making their two pair makes us a nut straight and we hold two of their straight outs in our hand (and have the added equity of filling up should they hit the remaining two on the turn)
Therefore we have over 70% equity against many hands villains would happily get it in with, negating the BA part
As far as the WB part, again this isn't so. We're roughly a 3:2 dog against KQ KT QT which represents the majority of the hands we'd most concerned about. This isn't too bad considering we have much better than 3:2 against a bunch of their hands when we are ahead.
There aren't many KsXs hands in their range outside of exactly KsJs, which we are roughly 50/50 with.
Sure We are a 3:1 dog to sets, but we can discount them heavily due to pre flop action (flat).
Yea we're screwed if villain has AJ, but we can discount that some since we hold two aces in our hand
We are a 4:1 dog to J9 as well, which can be a possibility.
I just think we run into pair/SD hands a ton here and thus should be happy getting it in with blockers (and nut redraws if we are behind) on this flop especially at only 50ish BBs deep
c9h13no3
Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
Shouldn't this make us want to call more? If we truly are drawing to these draws, wouldn't you want to put the minimum amount of $ in the pot? Doesn't this create more favorable turns for us?
This is already taken into account in the equity calculations.
The point of the post wasn't to say it was an exact BA/WB spot, hence why I hedged originally. The point of the post was that we should be looking to see a turn without committing the flop.
Then show me a range where we're ahead.
Its cute when you guys ramble on about "Oh, if they have AJ or a set we're beat, but I think we see a lot of pair + draws here." However, this isn't about what you "feel" like he has. We're playing a range, and that range includes all those hands. And against the range of hands that villain stacks on the flop, I feel like we're an equity dog. Probably enough to get it in on the flop and have it slightly +EV (given the dead money and the fact that we're not super deep), but I think calling and evaluating a turn is more profitable.
And stop mentioning that we're only 55bb's deep. The stack to pot ratio is still 7 on the flop, so we're not in "get in over pairs no matter what" range anyways.
Z
Zybomb
Rock Star
Silver Level
The problem is when you result to default thinking "show me a range" it doesn't take into consideration that some parts of the range are weighted heavier than others.
For instance is we say villain will stack off {AK AJ KQ KJ KT QJ QT JT J9 KK QQ and TT} on this flop, Without stoving anything we can say that we'd roughly be... 85% against AK, 70% against KJ QJ JT, 40% against KQ KT QT, 25% against JJ QQ KK, 20% against J9 and effectively dead to AJ, we can then infer that we're a dog to his range when he gets it in (although as you mentioned probably still a close +EV call due to stack sizes and dead money) but all parts of villains range arent weighed the same. This isnt about "feels" it's about putting the incomplete information we have together. All sets have to be heavily discounted bc of the preflop action as does AK. AJ has to be somewhat discounted bc hold hold two blockers for it in our hand. I think opponent has a pair draw or 2 pair hand (KQ KJ KT QJ QT JT) significantly more than the other parts of his range -- i think at least 80% of his range or better is these 6 hands witht he remaining 20% or less the other hands in his range and some random naked FDs... while on that subject This doesn't include the times where our flop raise pushes out naked low-mid flush draws from small spade connectors like 76s and we scoop the pot right there - not an unfavorable result
Another neglected part is the issue of getting value from our hand should we make it if we just call... For instances If the turn is a blank Jack, it's going to difficult to get value out of our nut straight from most hands in villains range.
Another semi important neglected part is we avoid ourselves getting outplayed on the turn. Like what's our plan if the turn bricks and opponent bombs? Will he shut down all pair/SD combos on the turn if we flat the flop (hint NO) ... and if we plan on calling down turns that are not unfavorable to us why not just pop the flop? I understand villains equity goes down on the turn (we are now super happy to get it in vs pair/draw combos) but that's overshadowed imo by the fact that opponent will not shut down blank turns and leaves us in the same boat....
We also avoid folding the best hand on seemingly unfavorable turns. Whats our plan on non spade T Q or K turns if opponent continues to fire? These are all possibly counterfeit cards which can give us the lead over two pair hands yet fill up others. Pair draws should continue to fire as well on these turns. Are we planning to call down? fold?
Finally yea the SPR isnt to the point where our line is "we have an overpair...we're allin"... like if the board was 986ss i'd be much more reserved about getting stacks in obviously since villains pair draw hands significantly go up in value. But half stacked (why are we half stacked again?) I can't see how we aren't trying to get this in on this board.
Anyway my original point to my first post was to say we arent Barely Ahead / Way Behind with out hand here and that is already shown... this discussion is more interesting though
c9h13no3
Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
I stopped reading after that, because if you think his range is 80% pair+draws then you're sorely mistaken. Its really hard to Razor up a range where his pair+draws are over 50% of his hands. And that 80% number you just threw out, that's a "feeling" because you pretty much just pulled it out of thin air.
Z
Zybomb
Rock Star
Silver Level
sorry to hear -- there's some interesting points brought up after that relating further streets should we flat
also the 80% encompasses 2 pairs and pair/draws as stated, not just pair/draws
C
ComplexPlaya
Legend
Silver Level
You make alot of my points Zybomb, glad someone agrees with me. I also liked the point about random 76s draws that personally I don't think will fold, especially not if the third guy calls.
Other points to make :
1) Alot or ALL of his outs may be shared with villain #2 (all when you consider ranges, not the actual hand). After all, he has something, he did call the flop bet. Their range might be exactly the same, which is terrific for us.
2) One of the most important aspects of this hand is this is a 3-way pot. c9 keeps forgetting that I think. We give the BB the implied odds for any draw he has if we just call here. We are letting him play perfect and not allowing him to make a mistake.
3) There are 22 cards that can come on the turn and make it impossible for us to continue thinking we are even close to ahead. 22 cards!! That's almost half the remaining cards in the deck basically. I'm talking about 8 spades, 4 nines, 2 Aces, 3 tens, 3 queens, 2 kings (1 remaining king being counted as a spade)
The reason why it's really really hard to continue when half of the deck comes down on us is because again, it is a 3-way pot. There is a high chance any of those cards arriving made someone the nuts. What do you do when another Q appears on the board? You pretty much can't call a shove now, and you're surely not going to bet.
So how are you getting more value by calling? As I showed there is roughly a 50% chance an action-killer (for us) card comes. Let's look what happens when it comes and when it doesn't :
Scenario I : the turn bricks.
Are you going to bet if a brick 2c comes on the turn? You're hardly getting alot of value out of that now, we kind of enter the WA/WB realm, and our own equity is severely diminished vs. the stuff that calls us. Less FDs and SDs call us, more 2 pairs do. You may call but I highly doubt he's going to fire again with the same range. This time his range will be tighter, and our equity significantly lower most likely.
Scenario 2 : The turn is the stuff that makes monsters and we slam the mouse into the desk, punching the monitor at the same time.
What if one of the 22 cards, say a 9 of clubs gets there. Now if both check you can't bet because you're really WA/WB their calling range, they could be checking the nuts etc. and if someone bets big you know you're beat.
I think basically calling here loses us money. Also those 22 cards have 2 streets to arrive, of course.
As a side note, I find it sad OP hasn't been following his own hand. I sometimes wonder what's the point of posting hand in alot of people's minds, you're not going to learn by reading the first reply that you wanted to hear and be done with it.
Other points to make :
1) Alot or ALL of his outs may be shared with villain #2 (all when you consider ranges, not the actual hand). After all, he has something, he did call the flop bet. Their range might be exactly the same, which is terrific for us.
2) One of the most important aspects of this hand is this is a 3-way pot. c9 keeps forgetting that I think. We give the BB the implied odds for any draw he has if we just call here. We are letting him play perfect and not allowing him to make a mistake.
3) There are 22 cards that can come on the turn and make it impossible for us to continue thinking we are even close to ahead. 22 cards!! That's almost half the remaining cards in the deck basically. I'm talking about 8 spades, 4 nines, 2 Aces, 3 tens, 3 queens, 2 kings (1 remaining king being counted as a spade)
The reason why it's really really hard to continue when half of the deck comes down on us is because again, it is a 3-way pot. There is a high chance any of those cards arriving made someone the nuts. What do you do when another Q appears on the board? You pretty much can't call a shove now, and you're surely not going to bet.
So how are you getting more value by calling? As I showed there is roughly a 50% chance an action-killer (for us) card comes. Let's look what happens when it comes and when it doesn't :
Scenario I : the turn bricks.
Are you going to bet if a brick 2c comes on the turn? You're hardly getting alot of value out of that now, we kind of enter the WA/WB realm, and our own equity is severely diminished vs. the stuff that calls us. Less FDs and SDs call us, more 2 pairs do. You may call but I highly doubt he's going to fire again with the same range. This time his range will be tighter, and our equity significantly lower most likely.
Scenario 2 : The turn is the stuff that makes monsters and we slam the mouse into the desk, punching the monitor at the same time.
What if one of the 22 cards, say a 9 of clubs gets there. Now if both check you can't bet because you're really WA/WB their calling range, they could be checking the nuts etc. and if someone bets big you know you're beat.
I think basically calling here loses us money. Also those 22 cards have 2 streets to arrive, of course.
As a side note, I find it sad OP hasn't been following his own hand. I sometimes wonder what's the point of posting hand in alot of people's minds, you're not going to learn by reading the first reply that you wanted to hear and be done with it.
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ben_rhyno
Legend
Silver Level
Thanks guys for the great responses, I really do feel this was an easy fold on the turn, but did want to see another card on the flop. As for the other points: I don't see what I can gain by raising the flop, most draws will still call and AJ/J9 will either call to trap or reraise making me fold the flop, flat calling was a way to see the turn and then re-evaluate. As it turns out, the bet and re-shove made the turn fold an easy to decision for me. Results below: ( highlight to see): First villain had AdJd and other villain had J9 can't remember suits
C
ComplexPlaya
Legend
Silver Level
That's being result orientedness to the max. Oh he had the nuts, it was a good fold!
The fact both had the top of their ranges really doesn't matter.
ben_rhyno
Legend
Silver Level
No it's not being results oriented at all, I didn't know their hole cards on the turn obviously but theres no need to stack off here with top pair and a slim chance of a gutshot imo. The bet and reshove were easily enough to tell me I was far behind and I would make the same fold again 100times.