re: Poker & $50 NLHE 6-max: Snap fold AA on the flop or turn?
You make alot of my points Zybomb, glad someone agrees with me. I also liked the point about random 76s draws that personally I don't think will fold, especially not if the third guy calls.
Other points to make :
1) Alot or ALL of his outs may be shared with villain #2 (all when you consider ranges, not the actual hand). After all, he has something, he did call the flop bet. Their range might be exactly the same, which is terrific for us.
2) One of the most important aspects of this hand is this is a 3-way pot. c9 keeps forgetting that I think. We give the BB the implied odds
for any draw he has if we just call here. We are letting him play perfect and not allowing him to make a mistake.
3) There are 22 cards that can come on the turn and make it impossible for us to continue thinking we are even close to ahead. 22 cards!! That's almost half the remaining cards in the deck basically. I'm talking about 8 spades, 4 nines, 2 Aces, 3 tens, 3 queens, 2 kings (1 remaining king being counted as a spade)
The reason why it's really really hard to continue when half of the deck comes down on us is because again, it is a 3-way pot. There is a high chance any of those cards arriving made someone the nuts. What do you do when another Q appears on the board? You pretty much can't call a shove now, and you're surely not going to bet.
So how are you getting more value by calling?
As I showed there is roughly a 50% chance an action-killer (for us) card comes. Let's look what happens when it comes and when it doesn't :
Scenario I : the turn bricks.
Are you going to bet if a brick 2c comes on the turn? You're hardly getting alot of value out of that now, we kind of enter the WA/WB realm, and our own equity is severely diminished vs. the stuff that calls us. Less FDs and SDs call us, more 2 pairs do. You may call but I highly doubt he's going to fire again with the same range. This time his range will be tighter, and our equity significantly lower most likely.
Scenario 2 : The turn is the stuff that makes monsters and we slam the mouse into the desk, punching the monitor at the same time.
What if one of the 22 cards, say a 9 of clubs gets there. Now if both check you can't bet because you're really WA/WB their calling range, they could be checking the nuts etc. and if someone bets big you know you're beat.
I think basically calling here loses us money. Also those 22 cards have 2 streets to arrive, of course.
As a side note, I find it sad OP hasn't been following his own hand. I sometimes wonder what's the point of posting hand in alot of people's minds, you're not going to learn by reading the first reply that you wanted to hear and be done with it.