$50 NLHE 6-max: Sigh flop for QQ - What can he have OTR though?

Ducky7

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Villain is 25/21 3b 11% and fold to 4b of 20%
Hes a good agro reg
When it came to his river jam I felt like its hard for him to have that many Ax combos because what can he have..? AK would probably jam pre and AQ is unlikely since we have QQ and if he does it has to be pretty much only AJs, and I think all the other stuff he calls 4b's with would bluff with this line since we clearly never have Ax

Thoughts on being a hero?

PokerStars - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (UTG): $59.98
CO: $50.00 (VPIP: 25.24, PFR: 20.76, 3Bet Preflop: 10.75, hands: 4,904)
BTN: $104.01 (VPIP: 25.68, PFR: 20.70, 3Bet Preflop: 9.94, Hands: 7,310)
SB: $22.76 (VPIP: 53.33, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 22.22, Hands: 31)
BB: $86.75 (VPIP: 17.78, PFR: 11.85, 3Bet Preflop: 1.89, Hands: 140)

SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has Q:heart: Q:diamond:

Hero raises to $1.50, CO raises to $4.50, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $13.00, CO calls $8.50

Flop: ($26.75, 2 players) A:spade: T:club: 8:heart:
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: ($26.75, 2 players) 6:heart:
Hero checks, CO bets $7.10, Hero calls $7.10

River: ($40.95, 2 players) 5:spade:
Hero checks, CO bets $29.90 and is all-in, Hero calls $29.90
 
t1riel

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I see what you mean. Pocket Aces would be a shove preflop. I'm thinking pocket tens. The bet on the turn is probably to get you off flush or straight draw. The river is a relatively safe indicator the draw was not made so player shoved..
 
IPlay

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Villain can turn JJ/99 into a bluff her and have TT/88 and maybe a Axs combo for value so I think its a fine call against a good aggro reg.
 
quick

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I agree with t1riel that it's unlikely it's AA and 1010 seems reasonable. It could also be A10 or another Ax hand as well. I don't think it's a set of 6s or KK. If it isn't Ax it's probably a set of 10s or even 8s.

I'm on the fence as to whether I'd call the shove or fold. As IPlay says it could be a bluff but at the same time I'm concerned that QQ gets busted here often by Ax, and less often by sets. If the villian is really a good reg he probably doesn't shove a set on a safe board, he probably value bets small to induce what he hopes is a 3-bet. So then maybe a call on the shove is good if we know villian won't shove the best hand and instead go for value. Tricky.
 
EvertonGirl

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I would of called hoping to see a lesser pair. and pray he didn't flat with AJ, AQ or TT.

I fecking hate seeing a flopped A when we have a hand like QQ. I think we should be cbetting the flop here.
 
John A

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Call is fine. I just hope he's not thinking at a decent level and jamming KK like I did in a similar spot tonight. :) Likely not, but he either slowplayed AA, or he's turning JJ/99/JTs into a bluff.

My money is on 99 though.
 
Ducky7

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Call is fine. I just hope he's not thinking at a decent level and jamming KK like I did in a similar spot tonight. :) Likely not, but he either slowplayed AA, or he's turning JJ/99/JTs into a bluff.

My money is on 99 though.

Almost certain he doesnt shove KK here, dont think anyone at this limit would and even if i did i play some weak Ax like this anyway so that would be fine :)

And yeah it feels like hes turning a lot of stuff into a bluff, but I dont think he has 99 in his range here too much would probably flat it pre, maybe JTs and JJ defo, felt more like big broadways rather than pairs since you figure he may x/b JJ sometimes with SDV
 
Ducky7

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I fecking hate seeing a flopped A when we have a hand like QQ. I think we should be cbetting the flop here.

Cbetting flop basically turns our hand into a bluff, we fold out worse and only get called by better, its tempting to cbet just to try take it down but its gonna suck other way so we may aswell check and throw in some nut hands here to balance our checking range :) Like im also checking some Ax hands on this board for this exact reason
 
EvertonGirl

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Cbetting flop basically turns our hand into a bluff, we fold out worse and only get called by better, its tempting to cbet just to try take it down but its gonna suck other way so we may aswell check and throw in some nut hands here to balance our checking range :) Like im also checking some Ax hands on this board for this exact reason

Cheers for that input. I will have to throw in a few checks now and again. I have always thought I should be cbetting if I went to the flop with the initiative as I could definitely have an ace in my hand. I also like to cbet to get a feel for where I am at, if villain had raised then TT is a strong possibility, maybe AT if that is in his/her 3bet range.
 
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Side question: you have 4k hands with him, can you find his betting pattern small turn, to have large river bet left and see what he did that with?
 
Ducky7

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Cheers for that input. I will have to throw in a few checks now and again. I have always thought I should be cbetting if I went to the flop with the initiative as I could definitely have an ace in my hand.

Yeah that makes sense but if you are betting QQ here it means you have no checking range at all you literally bet 100% of hands and lose as i said you lose money by making weaker hands fold and when you get called its really obvious what we have when we check turn since we've 100% flops if that makes sense
 
EvertonGirl

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Yea that makes sense :)
 
monkey23

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good to read another post from you Ducky :)

i like your preflop line...but your oppo's range is kind of polarised when they call your 4 bet....KK/QQ/JJ/TT AK/AQ ( sooted)

i have a question for you...if you were prepared to call oppo down all in on the river, why didn't you check-raise the turn?...was it for value, hoping they would bet the river with a weaker holding than queens..?

the flop was quite dry...do you have definite history on oppo jamming pre with AK?...i certainly wouldn't jam AK against a 4 bet from the UTG ...esp in position when i could try and outplay an early position aggressor post flop.

with your 4 bet o.o.p., what are you telling oppo exactly? you have AA KK QQ or maybe AK (sooted). How would your oppo be thinking in this situation. We have to shoot the arrow of our thought process both inwards and outwards at the same time. How does oppo perceive your 4-bet range UTG?

By the river you can only beat a bluff as I am sure you are aware . With 5000 HH with this oppo, you should know how often/likely they are to bluff the river AGAINST YOU. To make the correct call mathematically, i think they must bluff against you what...40 % of the time in this spot.

What hands could they be bluffing you with?..JJ is possibly the only one here.... after 5000 hands, you should have a decent read on oppo's 4 bet ( in position) calling range.

interesting post :)
 
Figaroo2

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Yeah this is a difficult spot especially looking in from the outside with just a few stats and no reads.
What comes across generally from the hand is you have checked three times postflop so in his eyes how strong can you really be here? His turn sizing looks like a probe and once you don't raise and then check on the end I'd expect him to think he can take you off whatever medium holding it is that you have and jam all his bluffs in this spot.

If I had a value hand like TT I'd bet it on the flop to draw value from your Ax and to set up an easy shove.
JJ does come to mind.
If he jammed something like KK, AJs or AQ for value having put you on QQ/JJ, I wouldn't be surprised as I think your AK AQ bets at least 1 street somewhere.
 
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