re: Poker & $50 NLHE 6-max: Shove or Call?
Originally Posted by ImolAyrton
The betting history doesnt look that he had a flush draw... I would shove here
After seeing this I guess I should explain why I said it looks like a draw.
On the flop villain led out for pot, which doesn't mean much since it was bvb no raise pre, but when hero raises, he's saying he has some kind of hand.
If villain had a real hand, basically 79/47 for the straight, or a set/overpair, he's likely going to raise right now because this board is really wet, lot's of draws out there. Instead he flat calls, basically saying, well I don't have a hand better than yours, but I might get one down the road, i.e. "I have a draw".
On the turn, now just about anyone with a real hand is going to put a raise in. If their opponent is on a draw, they have to get value now before everyone knows whether or not they missed. Instead he just flats again, so now he has to have some marginal hand or a draw. But from the flop, most hands that would be marginal now, would have been raising to protect themselves on the flop, since he didn't do that, draw still seems the most likely.
After acting like he's on a draw, a flush fills in, and for the first time he shows aggression. Now he's either put on one hell of a bluff line, or he actually hit the flush. If he doesn't have the flush here, I'd almost be sure that he was holding something with a lone 7 for the straight draw, and realized he'd played his hand as a draw and had a great opportunity to rep the flush, not a bad play imo.
So now he either has the flush or a busted draw mostly in my mind. If he has the flush, it's likely better than ours based on the spades on the board, plus if it's smaller, then he REALLY has to worry about a larger flush than his since we just shoved in the face of someone repping a flush. So even when he has that baby flush, he's not calling all the time.
If he's got the bustoed straight draw, then he's for sure not calling another cent, so there's no need to raise there.
Because of all this, I see a shove getting stuck in that situation where you get called when behind, and villain folds when you're ahead. Due to this, I'd go ahead and flat him, and even if he turns up a smaller flush, I wouldn't really think there was much more equity to be had.