$50 NLHE 6-max: Royal Flush Draw on The Flop

J

johnstxn

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Preflop:-Hero in BB position dealt KQ of diamonds
-UTG raises 2 big blinds, next 3 players fold
-SB rerasises 3 big blinds
-Hero reraises 7 big blinds
-UTG folds, SB calls

Flop:
($8 Pot)
10d 6h Ad
-Villian checks
-Hero raises 8 big blinds
-Villian shoves all in, Hero calls

Turn:
($84 Pot)
As

River:
3s

Showdown:
Villian reveals AhKs


I’m starting too think that this was a pretty obnoxious call, never mind the preflop raise. But am I right? Terrible call?

If someone could tell me what the odds are in this situation after the flop in percentage of hitting a jack or diamond and winning the hand vs my opponents percentage of me not hitting one of those cards and him sustaining the better hand and winning in the showdown.
I want to know the odds because at the time I felt it was a good call based on that since there was still 2 more cards to come but I’m starting to think I royally messed up here lol.
Would I lose in this situation more often then I’d win, in the long term?

I really just wanna get better. I know I have to study a lot of things still, I’ve just recently started taking this serious.

Thank you for any answers, help or advice it’s all greatly appreciated! :)
 
lsbenn

lsbenn

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You only had 35% chance of hitting your flush with 2 cards to come.

What was your reasoning for betting this flop?
You were on a royal draw and flush draw.
Were you just playing your hand and not considering your opponents holding at all?
 
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johnstxn

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You only had 35% chance of hitting your flush with 2 cards to come.

What was your reasoning for betting this flop?
You were on a royal draw and flush draw.
Were you just playing your hand and not considering your opponents holding at all?


My reason for betting the flop was because he checked and I assumed he didn’t have the ace and was hoping to make him fold. As soon as he shoved all in I was well aware he had the ace I just called anyways, really bad decision obviously. But wouldn’t my chances be higher then 35% since it’s a straight and a flush draw? or no? just a 35% at hitting a jack, a diamond or both?

Thanks for the reply though I appreciate it
 
lsbenn

lsbenn

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Chances of hitting your inside straight (gut shot) is about 9%. This doesn't make your % go up by much if any at all.
 
TenJack

TenJack

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Classic sort of thing were players get super excited because they see that royal flush before it actually happens. Just play it like every other draw, it shouldn't get special treatment.
 
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ElegantFish

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Against the opponent's exact hand you have about 46% equity. You have 9 flush outs and 3 non-flushing straight outs. So that is 12 cards twice, and generally your outs with turn and river still to come is multiplied by 4 to find your percentage of equity. In this case 12x4 is about 46%, not quite 48% because the opponent could hit runner runner full house even if you hit a flush on the turn or river.

Given that you have 46% equity and are have already invested a decent amount into the pot, the math proves that even though you are behind against AK you still should call and hope to hit your card.
 
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kceow2981

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I like ElegantFish's comment. Against this exact hand (AK) then you have 46% equity but if you consider his range, of hands you might have less here. Villain could be shoving pocket 66 and TT and AT hands as well. (He probably wouldnt have pocket AA in this spot since he probably would have reraised with that hand preflop instead of just calling). With these hands he could also have, he has a chance to make a full house by the river, which would beat a straight or flush you might have hit anyway. That'll probably also diminish your equity if you include hands like that into your opponents range. Need to consider these hands, then your equity, then the pot odds. Look up the "4/2 rule" if you don't know it already
 
Jon Poker

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Given that you have 46% equity and are have already invested a decent amount into the pot, the math proves that even though you are behind against AK you still should call and hope to hit your card.


I agree with this 100%. So you made a stab at the pot hoping the opponent didnt have the ace, no big deal, you've got plenty of outs so its a very good spot for the semi bluff. Then it all goes to pieces when he rips it in on you and you're certain he has at least the ace.

You dont feel too good about the spot, but in reality Fish is absolutely correct about your equity and how it warrants a call. You know you are behind, but with the money invested already - your realized equity in the hand plus your implied odds, this spot is always a call for me as well. Good luck to you, happy gaming.
 
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Sidetracked

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You had 12 outs on the flop to make either a flush or a straight.

At that point, you have a 45.5% chance of winning, versus his 53.5% chance of winning. 1% chance of a tie.

Avoid everything and fold preflop!
 
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johnstxn

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Thanks for the advice, I really appreciate it. I will definetly look that up.
 
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mr_kommpa

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You should have included some stats, I assume both SB and UTG are fishes, but without stats I think your "4Bet" pre is weird. Against any good player you should absolutely not 4Bet, not even 3Bet UTG. I assume the stats changed that fact.

Post flop is pretty straight forward, I don't understand why you "don't think" he has an A, but regardless, I like the continuation bet to be a little larger but other than that, great. When he shoves it's an obvious call if you have 45% and also when I assume he is a fish he could have worse flush draws or even pure trash. Against a good player I also think you should call (even though they would never play like this) because they would need to balance the range and your monster draw plays great against that range.
 
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mr_kommpa

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Some more math, the pot would be 50 And you would have to call 34, if he all ways has AA you are losing $5 if you call (10bb), if he has an A you are winning $2.5 (5bb). So if you only think he would have AA or TT you should fold, if you think he could have AK you should call. I think he could have 66 as well plus some way worse hands, which makes this an easy call. You should do this math when you review the hand and use something like equilab before posting ;)
 
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Grearix

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You had 12 outs on the flop to make either a flush or a straight.

At that point, you have a 45.5% chance of winning, versus his 53.5% chance of winning. 1% chance of a tie.

Avoid everything and fold preflop!
To fold pre-flop, seriously?
 
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Grearix

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The royal flush draw that is still a gut shot gave you false wings. Although a 3BB raise on his check would not be a bad play with a nuts flush draw, you probably made that 8BB raise for other reasoning. On a reraise all-in it depends how pot committed you are but I believe you had enough chips to continue by folding this hand rightly.
 
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