$50 NLHE 6-max: QQ vs small river bet

poker stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
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BTN: $48.75 (97.5 bb)
SB: $62.09 (124.2 bb)
BB: $81.15 (162.3 bb)
UTG: $20.55 (41.1 bb)
Hero (MP): $51.80 (103.6 bb)
CO: $42.19 (84.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with
UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, SB calls $1.25, BB folds

Flop: ($3.50) (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2, SB calls $2

Turn: ($7.50) (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($7.50) (2 players)
SB bets $2, Hero ??

Not a fan of betting the flop. As played call the river.

Call busted flush draws odds etc. Stats on villain are very significant whrn coming up with villain's preflop range.

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I would call.

Flop bet I think is fine, would rather make it $2.50 but still fine. River I would fold, I would think a busted draw bets bigger on the river if he is going to bluff it as you don't see many small bet bluffs at these stakes (25nl I am on about, I assume 50nl can't be toooo different), also nobody ever believes the line bet, check, bet, so if he is decent he might think about that. Also any pocket pair would just check it down. Looks like a weak king.

However if he was a weak player I would be more inclined to call. Need reads on villain.

Yoshimiii said:

Flop bet I think is fine

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As a what?

WVHillbilly said:

As a what?

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I don't understand what you're saying?

for value or as a bluff.. duhh.

Deco I think a lot of his FD's are gonna be Ax.

betting flops super thin and we're getting 2 streets anyway, might as well check flop and induce instead of getting him to fold some of his air OTF to check turn and bet river or something.

It was too small of a bet for it to be a bluff. I would've folded but then I wouldn't blame anyone who calls the river cuz its such a small bet.

Yoshimiii said:

I don't understand what you're saying?

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Yeah, what 9K said. What are we trying to accomplish with a flop bet?

OMGITSOVER9K said:

for value or as a bluff.. duhh.

Deco I think a lot of his FD's are gonna be Ax.

betting flops super thin and we're getting 2 streets anyway, might as well check flop and induce instead of getting him to fold some of his air OTF to check turn and bet river or something.

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AND if he starts raising his FDs betting the flop is a disaster for us.

oh yeah, agreed.

in all honesty though, I'm like the only reg at Stars 50nl that x/r's AK/KQ here for value as well as my sets. (that I've seen so far, anyway)

so if he x/rs we can put him on a lot of FD's as opposed to 2's and 4's. + he's flatting in the SB vs an MP open so I want to give him a tighter defending range.

which means we kinda know what he has and can station down, but we still hate life.

checking avoids this

OMGITSOVER9K said:

for value or as a bluff.. duhh.

Deco I think a lot of his FD's are gonna be Ax.

betting flops super thin and we're getting 2 streets anyway, might as well check flop and induce instead of getting him to fold some of his air OTF to check turn and bet river or something.

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True, we also hold the Qs so we're just looking at mid/low suited connecters really. Still the bet is so small it could be an underpair blocker bet and we need to win less than 18% of the time I really can't find a fold against an unknown here. Agreed on checking the flop.

anyone like raising?

OMGITSOVER9K said:

anyone like raising?

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It's such a weird line but if we think he folds a king it's likely +Ev. I still like calling better just based on the size of the bet.

OMGITSOVER9K said:

anyone like raising?

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Meh in the unlikely event villains decent he calls as we rep nothing.
In the likely event villains a big fish he calls because he's a big fish.

I dunno the people in-between it will work quite well on because his line stinks of KQ or A3s but I'd like a read or some stats before attempting it.

Betting flop is standard, really hard for him to have a K in SB here.

its not whether he has a K enough or not, its what do we get value from OTF.

being aheads no good if he folds everything we beat..

agreed with Deco, and I think most people are in that bracket which is why I said raising could be good here.

The same range we get value from when we have AK on this board, except for Kx: Flush draws and pocket pairs. When we have AK, Kx is a tiny part of his range yet we bet anyway.

Flop is a valuebet. You can get called by 55-99 and flush draws, turn bet would depend on whether his flush draw range is weighted towards Ax or if he is flatting loads of SC's. I'm not aware of how it plays at 50 but I would assume most draws are weighted towards the nutted end, so I think river is a fold. The other sections of his range have SDV and therefore don't need to bet it.

Raising is horrible, what do we fold with our line?

I would fold...you can't beat much in this situation and that small bet is just begging to be called more that likely he could beat 2 pair and he is just hoping he can get a call from a hand as weak as KQ KJ that might have lost interest after the Ace hit on the turn

yeah no-ones flatting SC's in the SB vs an MP open.

raising folds Kx and some Ax given opponent.

AK's 3 streets of value here because when we barrel 3 streets we can get called by worse. barrel 3 streets for value here with QQ vs an unknown and see how often you get to SD with better.

lol about raising being horrible, but opinions are opinions.

Why you would check back anything on that turn that is good enough for a raise OTR I don't know. If I was villain I would be calling a river raise 100% of the time, some boards we might check back if we hit the A but on a board where we get called by flush draws we won't be checking an ace here. So he will call any ace. KT/KJ will be X/C from him I would think. Suppose they could donk to try and get value from 88/99/TT but I can't see any K that he is willing to call with pre folding now. Unless we make a ridiculously large raise I don't see him folding anything he has that can value bet the river. Plus he will have more Axs here than he does K's.


I rarely call raises postflop, I'm a nit in that respect and yet even I call here with all Ax hands. Which is what his range will be weighted towards. I feel any nit who will be folding an Ax here, certainly wouldn't donk a K.

I have to think we only rep 77 here. I don't think he will be folding if he can perceives our range as 1 value hand and the rest as bluffs.

WVHillbilly said:

As a what?

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Value bet to get worse pocket pairs/FD's to call. Also I said I don't mind a flop bet (which I don't) but I do think that a check is also good.

Also I agree, what are we repping when we raise river apart from a 7/7? I doubt villain would believe us raising K/X for thin value and the chances are if he has the K/X he will call anyway because it's unlikely that we have the King as well.

Yoshimiii said:

Value bet to get worse pocket pairs/FD's to call. Also I said I don't mind a flop bet (which I don't) but I do think that a check is also good.

Also I agree, what are we repping when we raise river apart from a 7/7? I doubt villain would believe us raising K/X for thin value and the chances are if he has the K/X he will call anyway because it's unlikely that we have the King as well.

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I think we all agree the a river raise line represents such a narrow range that if he's a thinking player he's calling REALLY wide. But most player don't think they just press buttons and the button pressers are going to be folding quite a few hands that beat us to a raise. I still don't think it's better than calling but I can see it being profitable.