$50 NLHE 6-max: OOP, QQ on paired board turn

$50 NL HE 6-max: OOP, QQ on paired board turn

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 22/20/2.1

Stats over about 150 hands. Villain is a 100NL+ reg (looked him up, a little better than breakeven over 600K hands), he just started showing up on 50NL tables recently. ATS 36%, 3bet 7.7%, folds BB to steals 100%, haven't noticed anything unusual about his postflop play.

1. Am I planning on playing for stacks with this turn (OOP sucks)? In other words, how should I plan the rest of the hand?

2. Bet size (if I'm betting) thoughts on the turn (OOP sucks)?

3. If I plan on being committed and have money left behind on the river, what river cards should un-commit me (if any)?

poker stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

MP: $70.60 (141.2 bb)
CO: $50 (100 bb)
BTN: $50.45 (100.9 bb)
Hero (SB): $50 (100 bb)
BB: $138.90 (277.8 bb)
UTG: $78.65 (157.3 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with Qd Qs
3 folds, BTN raises to $2, Hero raises to $6.25, BB folds, BTN calls $4.25

Flop: ($13) 3d 2s 5c (2 players)
Hero bets $8, BTN calls $8

Turn: ($29) 3s (2 players)
Hero ???

Were definitely playing for stacks here.
JJ-99 are his most likely hands.

what's his fold to 3bet?
What's your 3bet stat for this session (or overall if he likely has as many hands on you as you have on him)

Are only concern now is how to get the money in.
If we bet here is he going to fold.
If the answers yes we check raise and we've won another bet from him maybe even get him to call the check raise as he has so much money in now.

If the answers no, bet it then shove the river. This shows less strength than the turn check raise so is more likely to get stacks in if he's the type of player who cant fold an overpair.

Deco said:

Were definitely playing for stacks here.
JJ-99 are his most likely hands. I had Ax hands included in his flop call range, but agree middle pairs are most likely.

what's his fold to 3bet? 54%
What's your 3bet stat for this session (or overall if he likely has as many hands on you as you have on him) 4.4% overall - it's the second hand on the table for me, so the session stat is irrelevant. He probably has me as something like 16/13/2, a relatively nitty TAG.

So, given a relatively high ATS of 36% and a relatively low 54% fold to 3bet, he likes to see a lot of flops in 3bet pots with relatively marginal hands (around 19% range). He probably floats IP as a result, I would think - if he's fit or fold, he'd be losing a ton of money. It's easier to float nitty TAG's than better TAG's and smart LAG's (range is easier to define, so hand reading is easier), so I'm a potential target.

Is this a reasonable read of the stats? Hadn't thought about this before, thanks.

Are only concern now is how to get the money in.
If we bet here is he going to fold.
If the answers yes we check raise and we've won another bet from him maybe even get him to call the check raise as he has so much money in now.

If the answers no, bet it then shove the river. This shows less strength than the turn check raise so is more likely to get stacks in if he's the type of player who cant fold an overpair.

Click to expand...

All makes sense, and the commitment plan matches what I was thinking. I lead out the turn for $18 (I didn't want him to check behind on the turn), a little small for my normal turn bet, but I wanted to have something reasonable to bet on the river, and this is half of what I have behind.

He called the turn bet - I mentally eliminated all Ax hands from his range because of this - so I have no river scare cards, do I? In other words, I'm shoving the river no matter what hits?

I love ch/r turn in this spot b/c you can easily represent AK for gutshot and overs or a picked up flush draw. If hes only folding to 53% of 3bets the he probably floats a lot ip too in 3bet pots and will be betting this turn a ton which makes a good case for a turn ch/r.

bw07507 said:

I love ch/r turn in this spot b/c you can easily represent AK for gutshot and overs or a picked up flush draw. If hes only folding to 53% of 3bets the he probably floats a lot ip too in 3bet pots and will be betting this turn a ton which makes a good case for a turn ch/r.

Click to expand...

Neat insight, thanks - I almost never c/r the turn because I'm always thinking I'm giving Villain the opportunity to check behind - great context for reasoning why this Villain will bet - thanks Deco also for suggesting the c/r.

As mentioned, players like this will be floating a lot, especially if they are from higher limits and on low boards like this. People who dont fold to 3bets a lot have to float these flops and I would only expect him to check behind with hands he thinks has showdown value (middle pocket pair type hands), but I would probably expect a bet there anyway. He will be firing all his other floated hands(there are a lot) most likely and you will gain a bet on them.

Also, if you dont have it you should add all the fold to cbet (flop/turn/river) to your hud and go from there. I am guessing he does not have a high fold to flop, but if his turn is also low then we can probably fire away again. Keep in mind you will need more hands for this to be relevelant but something to keepin mind/add.