$50 NLHE 6-max: OOP, flopped set raised on turn

slycbnew

slycbnew

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 8, 2008
Total posts
2,876
Chips
0
$50 NL HE 6-max: OOP, flopped set raised on turn

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 26/16/2.4

Villain seems okay over 100 hands (I suspect she either just moved up from 25NL or down from 100NL, she just started multi-tabling 50NL over the last few days), nothing flashy but nothing stupid either - a little too loose in limping seems to be her biggest flaw.

Range? Reaction to the raise?

poker stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

BTN: $60.75 (121.5 bb)
SB: $49.50 (99 bb)
BB: $15.20 (30.4 bb)
UTG: $57.45 (114.9 bb)
Hero (MP): $55.10 (110.2 bb)
CO: $57.95 (115.9 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP with 5c 5h
UTG folds, Hero raises to $2, CO folds, BTN calls $2, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.75) 4h 2c 5s (2 players)
Hero bets $3.50, BTN calls $3.50

Turn: ($11.75) Ad (2 players)
Hero bets $7.75, BTN raises to $18, Hero ???
 
shootwillus

shootwillus

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 24, 2009
Total posts
98
Chips
0
Obviously her holding a 3 and getting the straight is the concern....so, the question is what kind of chance do you think there is that she is actually holding a 3?

I don't think she has a 3...if she has been playing solid poker, you have to ask what was she calling your raises with? A-3?

I'd say she has A-k/q/j or she has two pair aces and some rag.

There is always a chance that she had pocket 3's...but, i think anyone sensible would fold pocket 3's after the flop raise.

Obviously she could have the straight...and, you have to get the read have a better estimate, but, my gut says no 3.

Infact, she may be combining pairing her ace with a bluff on the straight draw...

I'd probably call...maybe even re-raise.
 
slycbnew

slycbnew

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 8, 2008
Total posts
2,876
Chips
0
I'm thinking AK/AQ has to be the biggest part of her range for this raise - just checking what others think, thanks for your validation.

If I were Villain and called on the button preflop with a small pair (which I do frequently, both for setmining and as a float opportunity), I would've called the flop bet in Villain's shoes - that flop, from Villain's point of view, probably missed Hero's range altogether. So the turn A also represents a possible bluff, I think - I'm not sure there are a ton of Villain's at 50NL that will bluff the A while holding 66 against a second barrel, but I think that's a small part of her range as well. Or am I really reaching here?

22/33/44 all make sense for the raise as well, of course.

But I still see a big A as the biggest part of her range, like you - and the only hand I'm behind is 33 - posted this to validate the reasoning. This isn't Beluga, since it's not a c/r situation, but turn aggression generally has been something I'm paying more attention to.

FWIW, I went with the above reasoning and shoved over the raise - even if she's holding specifically 33, which I've got as relatively unlikely, I've got full house outs. Just checking the reasoning.
 
B

bw07507

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 8, 2007
Total posts
2,219
Chips
0
I'm thinking AK/AQ has to be the biggest part of her range for this raise - just checking what others think, thanks for your validation.

If I were Villain and called on the button preflop with a small pair (which I do frequently, both for setmining and as a float opportunity), I would've called the flop bet in Villain's shoes - that flop, from Villain's point of view, probably missed Hero's range altogether. So the turn A also represents a possible bluff, I think - I'm not sure there are a ton of Villain's at 50NL that will bluff the A while holding 66 against a second barrel, but I think that's a small part of her range as well. Or am I really reaching here?

22/33/44 all make sense for the raise as well, of course.

But I still see a big A as the biggest part of her range, like you - and the only hand I'm behind is 33 - posted this to validate the reasoning. This isn't Beluga, since it's not a c/r situation, but turn aggression generally has been something I'm paying more attention to.

FWIW, I went with the above reasoning and shoved over the raise - even if she's holding specifically 33, which I've got as relatively unlikely, I've got full house outs. Just checking the reasoning.
Click to expand...

Ok, first of all any villain that is "a little loose in limping" at 6max is bad. Unless villain is super super passive AK should not be in his range since he will be 3betting it almost always in this situation, although he does limp a lot so it might mean he would play AK passively. I would also highly doubt he would be raising big aces that called with gutshot and overs on the flop. I also expect him to raise any flopped set on this flop as it is so drawy. This is either a 3 or total air imo. If u think hes aggro enough to raise air here then flat and ch/call any river. If hes not then I think ur still getting odds to draw to the boat so call and then jam a paired board or ch/f if river doesnt pair board.
 
slycbnew

slycbnew

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 8, 2008
Total posts
2,876
Chips
0
bw07507 said:
Unless villain is super super passive AK should not be in his range since he will be 3betting it almost always in this situation, although he does limp a lot so it might mean he would play AK passively. I would also highly doubt he would be raising big aces that called with gutshot and overs on the flop. I also expect him to raise any flopped set on this flop as it is so drawy. This is either a 3 or total air imo.
Click to expand...

This was the real question I had about this hand, whether I was right or wrong to have an A in her range. Your explanation is great as always, thanks!
 
Deco

Deco

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 7, 2009
Total posts
2,544
Chips
0
AK AQ A2s-A5s
22 44
Random air

there's simply too much we could be beating here not to shove.
When A3s or 33 comes along were gunna lose most our stack anyway so who gives a shit.
Lets get it in to make money off the hands we beat and admit defeat when a jammy 33 comes along.

I don't think I could ever fold this unless I knew the player to be solid and hence make all the assumptions bw made.
However their far from solid so they could be making a stupid play with AK and by all means may have not raised the flop with 22 44 45 etc.
and if A3 is in their range so is A2, A4 and A5 which many a poor player would treat like the nuts on the turn.
 
slycbnew

slycbnew

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 8, 2008
Total posts
2,876
Chips
0
Deco said:
AK AQ A2s-A5s
22 44
Random air

there's simply too much we could be beating here not to shove.
When A3s or 33 comes along were gunna lose most our stack anyway so who gives a shit.
Lets get it in to make money off the hands we beat and admit defeat when a jammy 33 comes along.

I don't think I could ever fold this unless I knew the player to be solid and hence make all the assumptions bw made.
However their far from solid so they could be making a stupid play with AK and by all means may have not raised the flop with 22 44 45 etc.
and if A3 is in their range so is A2, A4 and A5 which many a poor player would treat like the nuts on the turn.
Click to expand...

Point taken, though I haven't noticed a lot of even bad players calling pf raises with wheel A's, mostly ATs+, AJo+? If it's an A but not a wheel A, I would think Villain would have to be concerned that Hero opened with AQ+ (I rarely vary my flop bet size, if Villain's any good he'd realize it - even if this one's not, she should still know what a cbet is), so why raise the turn unless it's specifically AK?

Eh, I'm thinking too much.

This hand is an example of hands where I lost my stack (obviously she had 33, and I missed the fh draw) and the turn was raised or beluga'd. I think the post it note on my monitor to fold to belugas more often should help take care of my beluga problem, but I'm also losing a lot of money in pots where Villain raised my turn bet and I shoved over the top, as here. My hand reading skills are still weak, so I'm having a tough time interpreting turn raises - hence my interest in whether I can really put an A in her range.

I understand the point, though, that with this player narrowing her range is harder because she's not a good player, and in that light this is sort of a cooler. Thanks for your help in thinking this through.
 
Top