Originally Posted by Deco
AK AQ A2s-A5s
there's simply too much we could be beating here not to shove.
When A3s or 33 comes along were gunna lose most our stack anyway so who gives a shit.
Lets get it in to make money off the hands we beat and admit defeat when a jammy 33 comes along.
I don't think I could ever fold this unless I knew the player to be solid and hence make all the assumptions bw made.
However their far from solid so they could be making a stupid play with AK and by all means may have not raised the flop with 22 44 45 etc.
and if A3 is in their range so is A2, A4 and A5 which many a poor player would treat like the nuts on the turn.
Point taken, though I haven't noticed a lot of even bad players calling pf raises with wheel A's, mostly ATs+, AJo+? If it's an A but not a wheel A, I would think Villain would have to be concerned that Hero opened with AQ+ (I rarely vary my flop bet size, if Villain's any good he'd realize it - even if this one's not, she should still know what a cbet is), so why raise the turn unless it's specifically AK?
Eh, I'm thinking too much.
This hand is an example of hands where I lost my stack (obviously she had 33, and I missed the fh draw) and the turn was raised or beluga'd. I think the post it note on my monitor to fold to belugas more often should help take care of my beluga problem, but I'm also losing a lot of money in pots where Villain raised my turn bet and I shoved over the top, as here. My hand reading skills are still weak, so I'm having a tough time interpreting turn raises - hence my interest in whether I can really put an A in her range.
I understand the point, though, that with this player narrowing her range is harder because she's not a good player, and in that light this is sort of a cooler. Thanks for your help in thinking this through.