$50 NLHE 6-max: NFD Multiway Line Check

CO - 16/13
BTN - 32/8

I could argue a squeeze pre, I dont wanna c/r flop as I feel BTN's range is fairly weak and could contain weaker FD's. If it was HU its a c/r all day same as the turn, we aren't folding out worse.

I don't want to donk river but CO never has a boat once he checks so I think c/c is fine.


Prima, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (BB): $63.69 (127.4 bb)
UTG: $56.24 (112.5 bb)
MP: $67.04 (134.1 bb)
CO: $51.34 (102.7 bb)
BTN: $56.99 (114 bb)
SB: $29.55 (59.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T A
2 folds, CO raises to $1.50, BTN calls $1.50, SB folds, Hero calls $1

Flop: ($4.75) 8 J Q (3 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $3, BTN calls $3, Hero calls $3

Turn: ($13.75) 6 (3 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $9, BTN calls $9, Hero calls $9

River: ($40.75) 6 (3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN bets $20.25, Hero ?

Shove.

Yeah not many FH combos in his range i shove too

I think I would have tried to get it in on the flop.

you're just folding out BTNs weaker FDs etc then imo

Flat pre is fine. Your hand is more than strong enough to do so yet not quite good enough to 3bet for value vs fish.

I donk the flop. When there is a fish in a multiway pot we can't count on the opener to c-bet for us, I'd rather be the one doing the betting so I can naturally bet my hand when I hit one of my outs rather than make a scary looking donk or rely on another villain to bet.

I ship the river. A jack or queen would have been scary a six isn't and sets may well have raised by now. The 6 combos of JJ/88 even unnegated do not outweight weaker flush draws or even the occasional straight. Fish are fishy.

yeah I agree dec this is a good spot for a donk, and FML for not c/shipping the river, its a clear obvious spot and flatting is gay!!

i can also imagine a fish snapping you off with lolbad stuff here like if he has KQ, and you time bank shove on him or something.

QJ probably stacks as well.

I think the turn is a clear check raise, you could donk lead as well, but check raise is super sexy because the PFR is next to act and PFR's tend to cbet flops, and then the button is next to act, meaning you are looking at a bet and a call situation tons. Not raising the flop almost certainly a mistake because you are more than 33% to win the hand, and you can represent the nuts, meaning you would love to get 2 calls, that is sick good value, but even one call or getting it in versus one opponent, you will certainly be getting good odds on your money. The folding equity in this spot is huge IMO and people will often overvalue top pair when you check call, but they will muck it if you show aggression.

Once you get to the river I think its a check call to get the overcall, since shoving doesn't get a ton of worse hands to call. While it is true there aren't a ton of full house combos in his range, shoving is dependent on his betting and calling range and its tough to say what either are exactly, except you know he will bet full houses on the river when checked to. This is an interesting spot, crank up the aggression in situations like this and watch people bet fold their 1 pair type hands!

sixpeppers:

Are you saying as played, the turn is a clear check raise giving that we ch/called flop?

But the best play is to ch/raise the flop to start with?

I think thats what i understand you to be saying?

I can see that we're super happy to ch/raise get it in on the flop but what do we do if we ch/raise the turn and he:

a) just calls and river bricks? (guessing ch/fold as hes most definitely not folding a TP)

b) 3bets our turn ch/raise?



Looking at this hand now i think ch/raise on the flop is super sexy too because we're not gonna fold any of his worse flushdraws because they're just gonna jam because most of them have outs to straights etc too, or contain a Q (KQs)

sixpeppers said:

I think the turn is a clear check raise, you could donk lead as well, but check raise is super sexy because the PFR is next to act and PFR's tend to cbet flops, and then the button is next to act, meaning you are looking at a bet and a call situation tons. Not raising the flop almost certainly a mistake because you are more than 33% to win the hand, and you can represent the nuts, meaning you would love to get 2 calls, that is sick good value, but even one call or getting it in versus one opponent, you will certainly be getting good odds on your money. The folding equity in this spot is huge IMO and people will often overvalue top pair when you check call, but they will muck it if you show aggression.

Once you get to the river I think its a check call to get the overcall, since shoving doesn't get a ton of worse hands to call. While it is true there aren't a ton of full house combos in his range, shoving is dependent on his betting and calling range and its tough to say what either are exactly, except you know he will bet full houses on the river when checked to. This is an interesting spot, crank up the aggression in situations like this and watch people bet fold their 1 pair type hands!

Click to expand...

the value of folding out CO's TP type hands is not as great as flatting and keeping BTN's weaker FDs in

you want to c/r to what 25 which leaves 33ish to 70ish OTR, river bricks and we have 0 FE...... or are you saying c/ship the turn

I would say it is pretty valuable folding out any top pairs here since we are behind them and if co has FD's the chances of either of us hitting one are pretty slim (7 outs at best)

Im talking about folding out TPs on the flop, which is why i can understand if you want to c/ship the turn but c/r seems weird as there is no size where we have any line but to shove with no FE OTR

I think ch/raising flop looks super good because if anyone has FD's they're with pairs and draws too, so arent gonna fold. Folding Tp's on the flop isnt bad either and if he wants to get sticky with them thats fine we have tons of equity and theres a decent bit of money to take right off the bat.

yeah tbh I didn't want to c/r BTN off SCs as when I check/raise I look like a set or a super strong draw which he may let go especially as its multiway

also get on skype

Just seems to me everytime you call and hit a brick your equity is decreasing a ton which means you'd need to increase fold equity to win, which probs isnt happening each street further you go. Plus noones folding flush draws on the flop with so many people in the pot, what they think is dead money and they will have other draws along with other hands.

Gonna do some uni work so wont be on skype till later

Why does no one else want to squeeze pre? Seems standard

Jurn8 said:

the value of folding out CO's TP type hands is not as great as flatting and keeping BTN's weaker FDs in

you want to c/r to what 25 which leaves 33ish to 70ish OTR, river bricks and we have 0 FE...... or are you saying c/ship the turn

Click to expand...

After reviewing this there are like 4-6 total smaller flush draw possibilities and some of them raise the flop. So you are concerned with a very narrow range and that range discounts your outs meaning you will flush over flush them even less frequently.

You are clearly concerned with a river situation that does not exist yet and are letting that issue hold up a great decision on the previous street. It's like saying, I didnt want to 3bet AJo because what do I do if he 4bets me...

So with 13+9+9 in the pot if we raise to 39, a pot sized raise, we will likely apply tons of pressure to all one pair hands just getting them to fold unless they have combo draw value, we get weaker flush draws to fold, if they call thats great for us. Let's say our opponent only calls leaving us with 51-4.5-39 = 7.5. Ironically if they only call they probably have some sort of draw like KT or 2 spades, so shoving the river wouldn't be a horrible idea for 7$ but even if you do check fold a blank (which is only 46-18/46 = 60%) that is fine because the turn check raise is so profitable. Lets now get into the details of how profitable a turn check raise is assuming we make it the biggest (so least profitable) size, allin.

Firstly a call of 9$ in a pot of 13.75+9+9 with 33% equity yields us 11% of the pot in profit. We are getting 22% odds to call and have 33% equity so we earn ~$3.5 on a call, this is assuming our ace is never good just for simplicity sake so maybe we are up to $4 (this means we get our 9 back and 4 more from making the call if you are following I am not going to elaborate on this concept right now).

Check raising the turn:
I am going to assume the bettor will have all the strong hands possible in their range but the caller is never slowplaying, and I think this is reasonable.

Opponent cutoff betting range :
JJ+,88,AQs,KQs,KTs,QJs,Qc9c,T9s,AQo,KQo,KTo,QJo - 7.5%

Button calling range: KQs,KTs,Kc9c,QTs-Q9s,7c6c,7c5c,7h5h,6c5c,5c4c,KQo,KTo,QTo - 4.4%

Our raise of allin (46.84) fold equity equation:

Pot size = 31.75
Amount we risk: 46.84
Amount we win when we win: 69.59

Ev = 31.75X (1-X)(-46.84V+69.59H)

for simplicity sake we are just saying only the first opponent will call our shove, because we believe the second player will never have a monster and will never call off with top pair, its a little bland of assumptions but not insane.

Opponent calling range of the 7.5% = QQ-JJ,88,QJs,T9s,QJo = 2.9%

Our Equity: 30.4%
Opponents Equity: 69.6%

X = (7.5-2.9/7.5) = .61333

EV = 31.75(.6133)+(1-.6133)*(-46.84*.696+.304*69.59) =

EV = 19.47 + (.3867)*(-32.6+ 21.15)

EV = 19.47 + (.3867)*(-11.44)

EV = 19.47 - 4.43

EV = 15.04

15.04 > 4 so if my assumptions are correct shoving the turn is going to be more +EV. Now even if they call hands like AA KK or AQ a bit of the time I still suspect it will be more +EV although it will be closer, also if both players call allin a % that is tougher to calculate BUT probably better odds for your draw, and of course the original raiser may fold and the caller may call with slowplayed nuts or something but still with a lot of error in my assumptions there is $9 of room and I don't think im $9 away from the truth with my assumptions.

So if we make a largish check raise that people will believe we should check raise the turn, but I still think check raising the flop would be better then betting large on the turn. Do you believe me now Jurn?

sixpeppers said:

After reviewing this there are like 4-6 total smaller flush draw possibilities and some of them raise the flop. So you are concerned with a very narrow range and that range discounts your outs meaning you will flush over flush them even less frequently.

You are clearly concerned with a river situation that does not exist yet and are letting that issue hold up a great decision on the previous street. It's like saying, I didnt want to 3bet AJo because what do I do if he 4bets me...

From various coaching sites and coaches they bang on about street projection (especially baluga) so it is extremely important, especially bet sizing so saying its not important as it doesnt exist is completely incorrect


So with 13+9+9 in the pot if we raise to 39, a pot sized raise, we will likely apply tons of pressure to all one pair hands just getting them to fold unless they have combo draw value, we get weaker flush draws to fold, if they call thats great for us. Let's say our opponent only calls leaving us with 51-4.5-39 = 7.5. Ironically if they only call they probably have some sort of draw like KT or 2 spades, so shoving the river wouldn't be a horrible idea for 7$ but even if you do check fold a blank (which is only 46-18/46 = 60%) that is fine because the turn check raise is so profitable. Lets now get into the details of how profitable a turn check raise is assuming we make it the biggest (so least profitable) size, allin.

Firstly a call of 9$ in a pot of 13.75+9+9 with 33% equity yields us 11% of the pot in profit. We are getting 22% odds to call and have 33% equity so we earn ~$3.5 on a call, this is assuming our ace is never good just for simplicity sake so maybe we are up to $4 (this means we get our 9 back and 4 more from making the call if you are following I am not going to elaborate on this concept right now).

Check raising the turn:
I am going to assume the bettor will have all the strong hands possible in their range but the caller is never slowplaying, and I think this is reasonable.

Opponent cutoff betting range :
JJ+,88,AQs,KQs,KTs,QJs,Qc9c,T9s,AQo,KQo,KTo,QJo - 7.5%

Button calling range: KQs,KTs,Kc9c,QTs-Q9s,7c6c,7c5c,7h5h,6c5c,5c4c,KQo,KTo,QTo - 4.4%

Our raise of allin (46.84) fold equity equation:

Pot size = 31.75
Amount we risk: 46.84
Amount we win when we win: 69.59

Ev = 31.75X (1-X)(-46.84V+69.59H)

for simplicity sake we are just saying only the first opponent will call our shove, because we believe the second player will never have a monster and will never call off with top pair, its a little bland of assumptions but not insane.

Opponent calling range of the 7.5% = QQ-JJ,88,QJs,T9s,QJo = 2.9%

Our Equity: 30.4%
Opponents Equity: 69.6%

X = (7.5-2.9/7.5) = .61333

EV = 31.75(.6133)+(1-.6133)*(-46.84*.696+.304*69.59) =

EV = 19.47 + (.3867)*(-32.6+ 21.15)

EV = 19.47 + (.3867)*(-11.44)

EV = 19.47 - 4.43

EV = 15.04

15.04 > 4 so if my assumptions are correct shoving the turn is going to be more +EV. Now even if they call hands like AA KK or AQ a bit of the time I still suspect it will be more +EV although it will be closer, also if both players call allin a % that is tougher to calculate BUT probably better odds for your draw, and of course the original raiser may fold and the caller may call with slowplayed nuts or something but still with a lot of error in my assumptions there is $9 of room and I don't think im $9 away from the truth with my assumptions.

So if we make a largish check raise that people will believe we should check raise the turn, but I still think check raising the flop would be better then betting large on the turn. Do you believe me now Jurn?

Click to expand...

thanks for the in depth analysis

c/shipping I can understand and as I previously mentioned I can see the logic in c/shipping but your post said c/r and raising to 39 I just do not see the point.

regarding the math your combo %s are off as I hold the Tc so for example the BTNs range should be 2.5% and cutoff betting range should be 5.8% as he cant have Ac/Jc or Tc, Qs in the combos im not going to work exact combos out as i dont see the point.

C/Shipping is deffo a better line, I think c/shipping turn is better as we may get another bet out of TP from CO than c/r the flop. I never thought about c/c c/shipping turn so cheers for your help.

The street projection that you are talking about also deals with the % times you face each situation. If check raising pot on the turn will get the same number of folds and our opponent will ship all the hands that they would call with, then we can never face a situation in which they call leaving us some awkward sizing on the river. In the event that we check raise smaller and are left with 25$ or something on the river, then we are faced with a second decision, so we need to combine the value of the 2 decisions then calculate the likelyhood of both of them occuring, then add that with the value of getting folds, and compare that with the $4 of profit we yield from calling. Lets say that we can check raise to $27 and get almost the same amount of folds as before but now our opponent will only call the check raise with AA KK and AQ. We will profitably shove at least 15/46 rivers and maybe will shove any T or A or spade as well, and our opponent only calls our turn check raise with 1.5/5.8% of their range, shoving 1.7%, and folding now 2.6% I believe. What i am saying is that it may feel like an awkward spot, but its okay to make a really good check raise on the turn and then check fold the river some times and jam others.

I knew I messed up with not discluding our hole cards but didnt care to fix it because I just wanted to get through the problem quickly.

What I mean to say instead of "doesn't exist yet" is that if you can make a more +EV decision than calling by raising, going to the next street with no fold equity is perfectly fine because your decision on the next street will only be 0 or +EV (you would never shove if their is 0% fold equity or even less fold equity than required). I believe that by check raising, the money you make on this street is more than the money you make when you river the best hand and go for value extraction, especially given that a lot of river cards that make your hand, are scare cards, the K the 9 and flush cards aren't likely to make you tons of money except versus very narrow portions of their range, like straights and lower flushes. It could be possible that ]check/call and bet river if you make your hand] is more +EV, especially if you assume the original raiser a) doesn't bet one pair hands on the turn or b)never folds one pair hands to a check raise.