Originally Posted by Jurn8
the value of folding out CO's TP type hands is not as great as flatting and keeping BTN's weaker FDs in
you want to c/r to what 25 which leaves 33ish to 70ish OTR, river bricks and we have 0 FE...... or are you saying c/ship the turn
After reviewing this there are like 4-6 total smaller flush draw possibilities and some of them raise the flop. So you are concerned with a very narrow range and that range discounts your outs meaning you will flush over flush them even less frequently.
You are clearly concerned with a river situation that does not exist yet and are letting that issue hold up a great decision on the previous street. It's like saying, I didnt want to 3bet AJo because what do I do if he 4bets me...
So with 13+9+9 in the pot if we raise to 39, a pot sized raise, we will likely apply tons of pressure to all one pair hands just getting them to fold unless they have combo draw value, we get weaker flush draws to fold, if they call thats great for us. Let's say our opponent only calls leaving us with 51-4.5-39 = 7.5. Ironically if they only call they probably have some sort of draw like KT or 2 spades, so shoving the river wouldn't be a horrible idea for 7$ but even if you do check fold a blank (which is only 46-18/46 = 60%) that is fine because the turn check raise is so profitable. Lets now get into the details of how profitable a turn check raise is assuming we make it the biggest (so least profitable) size, allin.
Firstly a call of 9$ in a pot of 13.75+9+9 with 33% equity yields us 11% of the pot in profit. We are getting 22% odds to call and have 33% equity so we earn ~$3.5 on a call, this is assuming our ace is never good just for simplicity sake so maybe we are up to $4 (this means we get our 9 back and 4 more from making the call if you are following I am not going to elaborate on this concept right now).
Check raising the turn:
I am going to assume the bettor will have all the strong hands possible in their range but the caller is never slowplaying, and I think this is reasonable.
Opponent cutoff betting range :
JJ+,88,AQs,KQs,KTs,QJs,Qc9c,T9s,AQo,KQo,KTo,QJo - 7.5%
Button calling range: KQs,KTs,Kc9c,QTs-Q9s,7c6c,7c5c,7h5h,6c5c,5c4c,KQo,KTo,QTo - 4.4%
Our raise of allin (46.84) fold equity equation:
Pot size = 31.75
Amount we risk: 46.84
Amount we win when we win: 69.59
Ev = 31.75X (1-X)(-46.84V+69.59H)
for simplicity sake we are just saying only the first opponent will call our shove, because we believe the second player will never have a monster and will never call off with top pair, its a little bland of assumptions but not insane.
Opponent calling range of the 7.5% = QQ-JJ,88,QJs,T9s,QJo = 2.9%
Our Equity: 30.4%
Opponents Equity: 69.6%
X = (7.5-2.9/7.5) = .61333
EV = 31.75(.6133)+(1-.6133)*(-46.84*.696+.304*69.59) =
EV = 19.47 + (.3867)*(-32.6+ 21.15)
EV = 19.47 + (.3867)*(-11.44)
EV = 19.47 - 4.43
EV = 15.04
15.04 > 4 so if my assumptions are correct shoving the turn is going to be more +EV. Now even if they call hands like AA KK or AQ a bit of the time I still suspect it will be more +EV although it will be closer, also if both players call allin a % that is tougher to calculate BUT probably better odds for your draw, and of course the original raiser may fold and the caller may call with slowplayed nuts or something but still with a lot of error in my assumptions there is $9 of room and I don't think im $9 away from the truth with my assumptions.
So if we make a largish check raise that people will believe we should check raise the turn, but I still think check raising the flop would be better then betting large on the turn. Do you believe me now Jurn?