$50 NLHE 6-max: Miss river with OESFD do you barrel?

jbbb

jbbb

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This was posted in the Skype chat, I wanted to know what people thought about shoving the river. Villain has about $22 left in a $36 pot and we miss everything.

Prima, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

MP: $39.23 (78.5 bb)
Hero (CO): $56.73 (113.5 bb)
BTN: $63.97 (127.9 bb)
SB: $73.78 (147.6 bb)
BB: $104.21 (208.4 bb)
UTG: $20.22 (40.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 5s 6s
UTG folds, MP calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, 2 folds, BB checks

Flop: ($1.75) 4d 4s 7s (3 players)
BB bets $1.25, MP calls $1.25, Hero raises to $6.75, BB folds, MP calls $5.50

Turn: ($16.50) Ah (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $10, MP calls $10

River: ($36.50) Kd (2 players)
MP checks, Hero?
 
Deco

Deco

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I shove.

I raise pre. Isolating Fish with position is nice. Wouldn;t frown upon a fold though I'm very loose with isolating but the bottom of my range still nets me a profit like.

Villain an unknown? I like shoving. We fold out straight draws that split, non Ax flush draws that beat us, and 88-QQ and maybe once in a blue moon the Ax flush draws (based on the limp/call they likely have weak kickers). Only 4x and fullhouses are locks to call. My only misgivings are that I hate bluffing fish and villain likely is one but meh we only need to take the pot down like <40% of the time.
 
jbbb

jbbb

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It's not my hand so I don't know about villain. Jurn posted it in Skype so if you want stats you'll have to wait for him to arrive. Assume by villains stack size he isn't very good though.

FWIW Jake also said shoving was the best option and your explanation seems to have persuaded me.
 
acky100

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I probably shove, but fish do love Ax and Kx i just think his range for calling the flop is super weak. Calling the turn he can still have all his crap i suppose so i probably shove, don't know how great it is but depending on the type of fish it could be a really good spot to shove. Much happier shoving this vs a 40/18 than a 40/2
 
A

arandom53

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It really all depends on the read if he is a donkey then i think shove if hes just loose then a check behind is probably best...
 
acky100

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^ Doesn't make any sense, if anything it would be the opposite.

freerollers gonna freeroll
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Jam's good to me. But I kinda wonder if we get a good chunk of folds out of betting like $10.
 
acky100

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sucks that us having 2 spades and a 5 and 6, knocks down the weak part of his range we would be trying to barrel him off. That and fish are quite happy to float Ax on any flop :/

Still think i shove if he doesn't seem to be an absolute station but i think against certain fish i'd just be giving up too.
 
B

baudib1

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Shoving is good, I do wonder if betting less than all-in saves us a few bucks once in a while and folds out just as much. I think he has a ton of flush draws himself.
 
Jurn8

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sucks that us having 2 spades and a 5 and 6, knocks down the weak part of his range we would be trying to barrel him off. That and fish are quite happy to float Ax on any flop :/

Still think i shove if he doesn't seem to be an absolute station but i think against certain fish i'd just be giving up too.

this, but its close to the nut river bluffing card so i think we have to ship
 
sixpeppers

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this, but its close to the nut river bluffing card so i think we have to ship

Why is this the nut river bluffing card? Our opponents range is all draws, 77 4x. Some of their draws have turned top pair, if they overvalue top pair like the fish they seem to be they will even further overvalue it on this river since their kicker has improved. If they had a 7 they were more likely to fold the turn but this is still a pretty good card for bluffing at on the river. If they had a 4 this is a horrible bluffing card because it changes nothing. So this is only a great bluffing card if they limped 7x (not A or K) and (88-QQ), but all that being said I do think villain has a draw here a ton of the time, really any suited combinations and 56 are totally reasonable. At the same time I could see them playing 7A and 4x this way as well, so we should really evaluate the frequency of missed draws versus 7A 4x, and probably all Axss (assuming 7A always calls which is probably true). I will leave that to you. Remember your bluff only has to work 22/(36.5+22) = 37.6% of the time to breakeven.

Jurn! Why do we always get into it :D
 
Jurn8

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Why is this the nut river bluffing card? Our opponents range is all draws, 77 4x. Some of their draws have turned top pair, if they overvalue top pair like the fish they seem to be they will even further overvalue it on this river since their kicker has improved. If they had a 7 they were more likely to fold the turn but this is still a pretty good card for bluffing at on the river. If they had a 4 this is a horrible bluffing card because it changes nothing. So this is only a great bluffing card if they limped 7x (not A or K) and (88-QQ), but all that being said I do think villain has a draw here a ton of the time, really any suited combinations and 56 are totally reasonable. At the same time I could see them playing 7A and 4x this way as well, so we should really evaluate the frequency of missed draws versus 7A 4x, and probably all Axss (assuming 7A always calls which is probably true). I will leave that to you. Remember your bluff only has to work 22/(36.5+22) = 37.6% of the time to breakeven.

Jurn! Why do we always get into it :D

Yeah i think for the folds of 7x, and pairs like JJ or QQ its the nut card to jam.

I would prefer us to always get into it than you to just promote poker zion like every other coach/HSNL player that ever visits CC. please stay active and improve my game :D
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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That and fish are quite happy to float Ax on any flop :/
**** that's such a good point. Especially paired boards. Damn, I kinda want to just check now... I remember everytime I barreled ace turn cards, fish end up showing me an ace T_T.
 
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